Dependence Between Investment and Economic Development of Russian Regions: Copula Approach

The structure of dependence between the level of economic development and investment provision of Russian regions in 2012–2016 is studied. Investment provision and the level of economic development in the regions are described by fixed capital investment (FCI) per capita and gross regional product (GRP) per capita, respectively. The copula method is used to model the dependency structure. It is established that the probabilistic structure of the relationship of the studied indicators can be described by a Gumbel copula in each year of the period 2012–2016, with the exception of 2014. The Gumbel copula in 2012–2013 transformed into Frank copula in 2014. There are no significant changes in the Gumbel copulas parameters in 2012–2013 and 2015–2016. It is concluded that the probabilistic structure describing by the Gumbel copula remains stable during the observed period. It is established that the Gumbel copula describes a sufficiently strong relationship between the studied parameters and has the asymptotic dependence in the upper tail of the distribution.