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Erschienen in: Studies in Comparative International Development 4/2021

15.04.2021

Does Charisma Affect Survival in Office for Leaders Who Take Power via Military Coup?

verfasst von: Tyson Roberts, Lisa Mueller

Erschienen in: Studies in Comparative International Development | Ausgabe 4/2021

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Abstract

There is ample research on the incidence of coups d’état but less on their aftermath. Why do some national leaders who seize power via military coup stay in power longer than others once they unseat their predecessors? This study tests whether facial attractiveness—which we argue is a testable proxy for personal charisma—helps explain variation in coup-installed leader survival. We draw on multiple data sources of coups worldwide from 1950 to 2010, as well as original attractiveness data coded from survey responses. We find that more attractive coup-installed leaders retain power longer than their less attractive counterparts after successfully ousting the incumbent. The attractiveness advantage is particularly strong for leaders in the first 5 years of their tenure, those who seized power from a dictatorship as opposed to a democracy, and those who rule without parties in the legislature. We argue that leaders who take power through a military coup lack both traditional and rational-legal authority; for such cases, facial attractiveness may signal charismatic authority sufficient to survive the institutional vacuum following an unconstitutional ascent to power.

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Fußnoten
1
See, for example, Singh (2014), Powell (2012) Acemoglu and Robinson (2006), and Londregan and Poole (1990).
 
2
In rare cases, the military arguably has a constitutional mandate to intervene in politics. For example, Section 142 of the Brazilian Constitution of 1988, modified in 2010, states that the armed forces have a mission to “defend the Motherland and guarantee constitutional powers, as well as law and order.”
 
3
Over time, charisma can be “routinized”—i.e., traditionalized or rationalized (Weber 1968, 243).
 
4
Nkrumah did not take power through a military coup but did emerge in a period of institutional ambiguity (amidst decolonization). Charisma was therefore an important source of his authority.
 
5
Popularity of the overthrown regime may also influence willingness to support the coup-installed leader. Data on popularity of these regimes are generally unavailable, particularly since most were dictatorships in which reliable approval surveys would be impossible (Kuran 1997). However, we do not expect overthrown regime popularity to be correlated with coup-leader charisma.
 
6
One exception was Bob Denard, a French mercenary who participated in two successful coups in the Comoros. He was listed first, but we used the second name because Denard, as a foreigner, was not eligible to take power. We exclude coups led by royal family members, since they are well-known and have a claim to traditional authority.
 
7
Leader exit is coded using the following year so that explanatory variables are lagged by 1 year.
 
8
In the online appendix, we show that our results hold when controlling for photo quality.
 
9
This is similar to the approach of Praino, Stockemer and Ratis (2014). Additional information about the surveys is available in the online appendix.
 
10
The majority of Mechanical Turk respondents were from the USA or India. One important concern is the possibility that respondents recognized successful coup-installed leaders, and this familiarity led to higher attractiveness ratings. Using data from a follow-up survey to identify faces more likely to be recognized, we re-ran the analysis with these cases (e.g., Idi Amin of Uganda with 15% recognition and Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan with 13% recognition) removed. The results remain robust. See the online appendix for details.
 
11
Correlation coefficient = .11; p-value = .15. The lack of statistical significance holds for the entire data set, and for subsets in which both the incumbent and coup leader are wearing civilian garb, or military garb, or in which one is wearing civilian garb and the other military garb.
 
12
Other individual attributes that may be related to appearance, in addition to military vs civilian garb, include age and, relatedly, military rank. We address each of these in the analysis section.
 
13
We calculate duration as the years in office at the time of leader exit. Nine leaders either remain in office at the end of the analysis period or died in office.
 
14
This data set uses the regime in place on December 31 to assign regime type to a country-year, so the regime type at the end of the year before the coup is the most recent measure.
 
15
Because this variable is on December 31 of each year, we exclude country-years in which the leader did not remain in power until the end of the year.
 
16
Our results are robust to the exclusion of the Cold War dummy.
 
17
Carter and Signorino (2010) note that survival (or duration) models should “allow the analyst to estimate whether the hazard is increasing, decreasing, or non-monotonic with time.” They demonstrate that the logistic regression model with time polynomials approach has various advantages over alternatives such as time dummies or splines.
 
18
Among the coup leaders who were military officers, 86 were generals, 22 were colonels in which this was the highest ranks; 21 were middle officers in which general was the highest rank; 17 were officers below the rank of major; and 17 coup leaders were non-military.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Does Charisma Affect Survival in Office for Leaders Who Take Power via Military Coup?
verfasst von
Tyson Roberts
Lisa Mueller
Publikationsdatum
15.04.2021
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Studies in Comparative International Development / Ausgabe 4/2021
Print ISSN: 0039-3606
Elektronische ISSN: 1936-6167
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12116-021-09326-9

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