Evaluating the Influence of Weather Prediction Accuracy on Aircraft Performance Estimation

Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) require accurate aircraft performance estimations with high-quality weather information to initiate a paradigm shift. This paper contributes by quantitatively investigating the effect of numerical weather prediction (NWP) accuracy on aircraft performance estimation. Nowcast/forecast of wind and temperature acquired from Local Forecast (LFM), Meso Scale (MSM), and Global Spectral (GSM) models were compared over a series of ADS-B data on three domestic flight routes. In the second phase, fast-time simulations were used to simulate several tactical and strategic air traffic management applications by calculating the flight time and fuel consumption over a cruise flight segment. Several flight levels corresponding to a year worth of weather data with feasible nowcast/forecast combinations were considered. The results showed that wind forecast deviations increase with the update cycle time and forecast horizon, and record up to 6 m/s compared with LFM nowcasts. Time thresholds were defined to investigate the impact on aircraft performance estimations, and the results revealed that LFM forecasts are feasible for applications with short-temporal forecast requirements. Also, just over 50% in total estimates were eligible for meeting the performance standards in terms of long-temporal strategies with MSM/GSM forecasts. Overall results elaborated the importance of a tailored approach for applying NWP data in future ATM operational strategies.