Evaluation of Spatial Risks of Nursing Homes by Fuzzy Risk Analysis Method

The elderly population in the world and Turkey is increasing rapidly. The proportion of elderly people in Turkey that has remained below 5% until the 1990s has reached its highest point in the past 15 years with a significant increase. This leads to an increase in the need for nursing homes. However, for those living in nursing homes, spatial risks can lead to serious hazards such as injury and death. To increase the quality of life for the elderly, these hazards should be assessed, and corrective actions should be taken to eliminate them. The Fine-Kinney risk analysis method is one of the most commonly used methods for risk assessment. In this method, the hazards are evaluated according to the probability, frequency and severity factors. However, the value assignments of these risk factors are often based on expert opinion. Experts often identify risk values in the context of incomplete information and uncertainty. Also, experts tend to use verbal expressions rather than numeric value assignments. In this study, a fuzzy Fine-Kinney risk analysis approach was developed to take advantage of fuzzy logic to remove this shortcoming. This developed approach was applied to the nursing homes located in Istanbul and the areas that need to be improved with high risk were determined first. The order of risk prioritization obtained with the fuzzy Fine-Kinney approach was compared with that of the conventional Fine-Kinney method and it was determined that the fuzzy Fine-Kinney approach gave better results.