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2019 | Buch

Exchange Rate, Second Round Effects and Inflation Processes

Evidence From South Africa

verfasst von: Dr. Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Dr. Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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This book focuses on the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT), second round effects and the inflation process in South Africa. The authors demonstrate that magnitudes of the second round effects of the exchange rate depreciation and oil price shocks depend on inflation regimes. The impact of positive oil price shocks on inflation is weakened by monetary policy credibility. Evidence shows the influence of oil price on unit labour costs and correlation between exchange rate changes and inflation has weakened. In addition, ERPT is reduced by low business and consumer confidence, high trade openness, low inflation and high exchange rate volatility which weaken real economic activity. Both monetary and fiscal policy credibility lowers the sizes of ERPT to inflation and inflation expectations. Fiscal policy via fuel levies, administered prices and public transport inflation channel impacts the responses of monetary policy to inflation shocks. The authors show that second round effects contribute very little to wage inflation following an exchange rate depreciation shock. Both lending rate and household consumption responds asymmetrical to repo rate changes.

This book will appeal to policymakers, students, academics and analysts.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

The Changing Size of Second-Round Effects

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. Introduction
Abstract
Recently several notable macroeconomic developments with huge economic significance impacted the South African economy compelling us to examine whether certain relationships have changed in line with varying economic regimes. Of great importance is the observed, muted inflation and average wage settlements response to the persistent exchange rate depreciation post 2009.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 2. Policy Implications of ERPT and Ongoing Debates
Abstract
This book aims to enhance the understanding of the dynamics of exchange rate pass-through in South Africa. We therefore provide empirical evidence as invaluable insights into the search for appropriate policy responses. This is needed to understand the effects of exchange rate volatility, to reduce inflation and facilitate macroeconomic stability.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 3. How Big Are the Second Round Effects of the Exchange Rate Depreciation Transmitted via Consumer Price Inflation to Average Wage Settlements?
Abstract
Does the reaction of wage inflation to the exchange rate depreciation shock depend on the inflation regimes? Does the size of the second-round effects of the exchange rate depreciation shocks on wage inflation depend on the inflation regimes? Evidence shows the average wage settlement rises following an exchange rate depreciation shock. Counterfactual analysis reveals that the peak of second-round effects is nearly a one-third of the peak of inflation reaction in the low inflation regime. By contrast, the peak of second-round effects is nearly one half of the peak of inflation reaction in the high inflation regime. This evidence shows that there is increased likelihood of magnified second-round effects of the exchange rate depreciation effects in the high inflation regimes than in the low inflation regime.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 4. Does the Size of Second-Round Effects on Growth in Total Remuneration Per Worker Due to Exchange Rate Depreciation Shock Vary According to Inflation Regimes?
Abstract
Does the size of the second-round effects on growth in total remuneration per worker due to the exchange rate depreciation shock vary according to the inflation regimes? The second-round effects are smaller or dampened when inflation expectations are in the low inflation regime while these are elevated in the high inflation regime. Evidence shows that when inflation expectations are in the low inflation regime, the repo rate tends to be at lower levels than that would prevail if second-round effects were not considered. In addition, the weakening impact of the second-round effects on the repo rate increase following an exchange rate depreciation shock is much bigger when inflation expectations coincides with consumer price inflation being below 4.5% than just below 6% threshold.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 5. Do Inflation Regimes Influence the Size of Second-Round Effects on Private Sector Wage Inflation Following an Exchange Rate Depreciation Shock?
Abstract
Do inflation regimes influence the size of second round effects on private sector wage inflation following an exchange rate depreciation shock? Evidence shows the second-round effects of exchange rate depreciation shock are much smaller in the low consumer price inflation regime in relation to those in the high inflation regime. The findings further show that in the low consumer price inflation regime, the repo rate tends to be much lower than that level that would prevail if second round effects were not considered. This suggests that weak second round effects in low inflation regimes matter. Therefore, policymakers should be cognisant that low and high consumer price inflation regimes impact nonlinearly the size of second-round effects and this can lead to different conclusions and policy implications.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 6. Do Inflation Regimes Matter for the Sizes of Second-Round Effects of Oil Price Shocks to Consumer Price Inflation via the Unit Labour Costs Channel?
Abstract
We examine whether inflation regimes matter for the size of second-round effects of positive oil price inflation shocks to consumer price inflation via the growth of unit labour costs (ULC) channel. The size of the impact of ULC on inflation is smaller in the low inflation regime compared to that in the high inflation regime. The magnitude of the impact in the high inflation regimes is at least five times larger than that in the low inflation regime. The positive oil price inflation shock raises the correlation between ULC and inflation more in the high inflation regime compared to that in the low regime. Evidence from counterfactual analysis shows, the ULC channels amplify the second-round effects of oil price inflation shocks more in high inflation regime than in the low inflation regime.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma

Monetary Policy Credibility and Time-Varying Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Frontmatter
Chapter 7. Monetary Policy Credibility and the Time-Varying Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Price Inflation
Abstract
This chapter examines, the extent to which monetary policy credibility impacts the time varying exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer price inflation. We establish that the correlation between the growth of nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and inflation has declined or weakened over time. In addition, the ability of the exchange rate to explain movements in inflation has weakened over time. The repo rate tightening shock lowers the ERPT and the correlation between the NEER changes and inflation. Evidence shows that the decline in ERPT is due to improved credibility of monetary policy conduct and keeping inflation within the 3–6% band. This concurs with the Taylor (European Econ Rev 44:1389–1408, 2000) hypothesis which links declines in ERPT and low inflation environment.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 8. Monetary Policy Credibility and the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation
Abstract
We estimate counterfactual VAR models to determine whether monetary policy credibility channel impacts the response of inflation to exchange rate depreciation shocks. We shut-off the policy credibility indicator channel to determine the counterfactual consumer price inflation response to exchange rate depreciation shock. Evidence shows that the counterfactual consumer price inflation rises more than the actual reaction. This suggests that high monetary policy credibility weakens the size of exchange rate pass-through to inflation. The monetary policy credibility has bigger dampening effects when inflation exceeds 6% than using the 3–6% band or below 6%. This implies the threat of elevated upside risk, from the exchange rate depreciation shock in influencing inflation developments, may not be that elevated if the role of the monetary policy credibility is considered in the policy discussion. The role of credibility of policy conduct on the exchange rate pass-through to inflation is therefore crucial in the minimisation of exchange rate pass-through to inflation.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 9. Does the Monetary Policy Channel Impact the Transmission of Exchange Rate Depreciation Shocks to Inflation?
Abstract
We estimate counterfactual VAR models to determine the role of repo rate channel in the transmission of exchange rate depreciation shocks to consumer price inflation. Evidence shows the consumer price inflation rises to exchange rate depreciation shocks irrespective of whether policy rate is shutoff or not in the model. This suggests the policy rate channel dampens the increase in consumer price inflation following the exchange rate depreciation shocks. The policy rate channel’s weakening of the exchange rate pass-through to consumer price inflation is independent of inflation regimes, which supports a credible policy conduct. Evidence indicates, in the high inflation regimes, the monetary reaction to consumer price inflation is amplified by ERPT channel.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 10. Does Monetary Policy Credibility Impact the Responses of Unit Labour Costs to Exchange Rate Depreciation Shocks?
Abstract
We examine whether monetary policy credibility impacts the responses of growth of unit labour costs (ULC) to exchange rate depreciation shocks. Both, the linear regressions and VAR analysis indicates the ULC rises much higher to exchange rate depreciation shock in high inflation regime than in the low regime. The counterfactual ULC reaction exceeds the actual responses, indicating to the potency of policy credibility indicator in dampening the pass-through. This indicates that high monetary policy credibility weaken the increase in ULC to exchange rate depreciation shocks. This implies that policymakers should be aware that the risk to inflationary pressures due to exchange rate depreciation shocks via the ULC channel are much weaker when inflation is below or equal to the 6% threshold.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 11. Does Monetary Policy Credibility Play a Role in the Transmission of Oil Price Shocks to Inflation Expectations?
Abstract
Does monetary policy credibility play a role in the transmission of positive oil price shocks to inflation expectations? The credibility is examined via the role of (1) consumer price inflation from the 3–6% target band and (2) monetary policy credibility as measured by squared deviations from the 6% inflation rate, which is the upper of the inflation target band. Evidence suggests that keeping the consumer price inflation within the target band has a dampening impact on the increase of inflation expectations following a positive oil price shock. This suggests the need to anchor the consumer price inflation within the target band and raising the credibility of monetary policy conduct, to mitigates the pass-through of positive oil price shocks to inflation expectation.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 12. Does Monetary Policy Credibility Affect Market-Based Inflation Expectations?
Abstract
Evidence based on the counterfactual analysis reveals that an unexpected improvement in the monetary policy credibility neutralises the rate of increase of eight-year inflation expectations to the exchange rate depreciation and oil price inflation shocks. In addition, evidence-based on the counterfactual analysis indicates that the dampening effect of the improved monetary policy credibility is bigger when inflation exceeds 6% as eight-year inflation expectations rise by smaller magnitudes to positive inflation shocks. These results imply the credibility of the conduct of monetary policy in minimising the deviations of inflation from the target in the high inflation regime affect the rate at which market-based inflation expectations react to positive inflation shocks.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma

Trade Openness, Consumer and Business Confidence and the Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Frontmatter
Chapter 13. Does the Consumer Confidence Channel Affect the Response of Inflation to Exchange Rate Depreciation Shocks?
Abstract
Evidence indicates the weak consumer confidence reduces the size of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer price inflation. In addition, evidence indicates that weak consumer and business confidence reduces the size of ERPT to consumer price inflation more than monetary policy credibility does. In policy terms, this evidence suggests, the size of inflationary pressures from the exchange rate depreciation shocks are much lower than they would be, when consumer confidence is weak. Therefore, the non-consideration of the influence of weak consumer confidence on the ERPT may lead to an upward bias on the projections of policy rate path.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 14. Does Weak Business Confidence Impact the Pass-Through of the Exchange Rate Depreciation Shocks to Inflation?
Abstract
Evidence reveals that the weak business confidence (including post 2008Q1), reduces the correlation between the exchange rate changes and inflation, and the size of the ERPT to inflation. In addition, inflation increases less to exchange rate depreciation shocks when the 3% and 4.5% inflation threshold are used compared to the 6% inflation threshold, which indicates inflation regimes matter. In addition, the subdued GDP growth post 2008Q1 accentuated the impact of weak business confidence in lowering the correlation between the exchange rate changes and inflation. Therefore, the subdued demand side inflationary pressures and low inflation regime play an important role in the transmission of exchange rate depreciation shocks to inflation. This suggests that the inflationary risk from currency depreciation maybe less severe when the business confidence index is below 50 points.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 15. Does the Exchange Rate Volatility Matter for the Reaction of Consumer Price Inflation to Exchange Rate Depreciation Shock?
Abstract
Evidence based on the counterfactual analysis indicates the actual inflation rate rises less than what it would be if exchange rate volatility is allowed to transmit exchange rate depreciation shocks. In addition, the positive exchange rate volatility shocks directly reduce the size of the ERPT to inflation. The decline is much bigger to a persistent increase in the exchange rate volatility. This suggests that elevated exchange rate volatilities dampen the increases in consumer price inflation following an exchange rate depreciation shock. This happens through exchange rate volatility depressing output gap, economic growth, household consumption growth, exports growth and gross fixed capital formation. This evidence reveals that exchange rate volatility may be partly responsible for the lower ERPT to consumer price inflation post 2008 and it is another explanation for the prolonged negative output gap. These effects should considered in projections of policy rate path to minimise upward biases in expected policy rate.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 16. Does Trade Openness or Globalisation Matter for the Response of Inflation to Exchange Rate Depreciation Shocks?
Abstract
We find a negative relationship between trade openness, inflation and the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to inflation. Positive shocks to the trade openness lower the ERPT, and the decline is much bigger due to a persistent shock compared to a non-persistent shock. This indicates the direct effects of trade openness on ERPT. The counterfactual analysis reveals that increased trade openness dampens the increase in inflation due to exchange rate depreciation shocks. The negative business confidence channel and subdued GDP growth post 2008Q4, amplified the dampening ability of positive shocks to trade-openness to lower the ERPT.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma

Fiscal Policy Credibility and Time-Varying Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Frontmatter
Chapter 17. Does Fiscal Policy Credibility Matter for the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Price Inflation in South Africa?
Abstract
We find that strong (weak) fiscal policy credibility leads to a significant exchange rate appreciation (depreciation), reduces (increases) inflation and lowers inflation expectations. Evidence based on the counterfactual VAR model shows that improvements in fiscal policy credibility neutralise the transmission of exchange rate depreciation shocks to inflation and inflation expectations especially in the high inflation regime. Thus, we conclude that strengthening fiscal policy credibility is needed to reduce the exchange rate pass-through to inflation and inflation expectations and this assists monetary policy authorities in achieving the price stability mandate.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 18. Has the Fiscal Policy Credibility Shock Impacted the Time-Varying Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Price Inflation?
Abstract
Evidence indicates that the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer price inflation declines more due to an unexpected improvement in the fiscal policy credibility in the low inflation regime compared to the high inflation regime. The decline in the ERPT is larger to the persistent improvements in fiscal policy credibility relative to those due to the transitory improvements in fiscal policy credibility. Evidence shows the decline in inflation expectations is amplified by the reduction of the ERPT to consumer price inflation following the fiscal policy credibility shocks. Thus, the ERPT plays a significant role in transmitting fiscal policy credibility shocks to inflation expectations. We conclude that improvements in fiscal policy credibility matter for the achievement of the price stability mandate and for the decline in the size of the ERPT to inflation.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 19. Is the Impact of High Monetary Policy Credibility on Consumer Price Inflation and the ERPT Reinforced by Fiscal Policy Credibility?
Abstract
Evidence shows that the exchange rate appreciation, inflation and inflation expectations decline are larger due to persistently rising fiscal policy and monetary policy credibility shocks compared to the non-persistent shocks. In addition, we establish that strong fiscal policy credibility reinforces the effects of monetary policy credibility shocks leading to a larger exchange rate appreciation, larger declines in inflation outcomes and inflation expectations. Thus, we conclude that strong fiscal policy credibility reinforces the monetary policy credibility effects on the exchange rate, inflation outcomes and inflation expectations in achieving the price stability mandate. Thus, the persistence of monetary policy credibility shock matters for the exchange rate, inflation outcomes and inflation expectations.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma

Regulated Prices, Inflation Process and the Influence on Monetary Policy

Frontmatter
Chapter 20. What Is the Role and Costs of Administered Prices? Evidence from Monetary Policy Responses to Positive Inflation Shocks
Abstract
Evidence from counterfactual analysis reveals that administered prices amplify the reaction of repo rate to positive inflation shocks. In the absence of administered price inflation channel, the repo rate tightening to positive inflation shocks would be much lower. This indicates that the monetary policy response to positive inflation shocks is another channel through which administered prices pose social costs and above the initial direct impact on the standard of living. Thus lowering the proportion of administered price in the CPI basket coupled with administered price inflation that grows at or below 4% is beneficial not only to lowering the cost of living but containing costs associated with contractionary monetary policy responses to positive inflation shocks.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 21. Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions on the Inflation Process: The Role of the Fuel Levies Channel
Abstract
Evidence shows that fuel levies amplify the effect of the rand per United States of America dollar (R/US$) exchange rate depreciation and oil price increases on petrol price inflation. At the same time, fuel levies also amplify the impact of petrol price inflation on headline inflation. In addition, we assess the role of fuel levies on the repo rate responses to headline inflation, the results show that fuel levies propagate the increase in the repo rate due to positive inflation shocks.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 22. Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Inflation Process: The Role of Public Transport Inflation Channel
Abstract
Does public transport inflation impact the responses of repo rate to positive shocks on headline inflation and inflation by expenditure deciles. In addition, does public transport inflation channel show how headline inflation responds to petrol price inflation shocks? Evidence indicates at peak response to a positive shock to petrol prices, private transport inflation increases is 4 percentage points more than that of public transport inflation. In addition, evidence indicates that inflation for expenditure decile 10 and rural areas are the most affected by positive shocks to petrol price and private transport inflation. Furthermore, evidence shows that public transport inflation tends to exert downward pressure on headline inflation due to positive petrol price shocks, dampening the repo rate tightening to positive headline inflationary pressures.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 23. Monetary Policy and Inflation Rates by Expenditure Deciles and Rural Areas
Abstract
Evidence shows that loose and tight monetary policy shocks exerts different effects on the inflation by expenditure deciles and rural areas. At peak response expenditure deciles two, six and the rural areas’ inflation rates are more responsive to the repo rate loosening compared to the responses of expenditure decile ten. A similar pattern of responses is evident with respect to policy tightening.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma

Asymmetric Interest Rate Pass-Through

Frontmatter
Chapter 24. Is There Evidence of Asymmetries in the Adjustment of the Lending Rate Responses to Repo Rate Changes?
Abstract
We find that the interest rate pass-through and the loan intermediation mark-up move in opposite directions and differs across the monetary policy tightening and loosening cycles. A high (low) mark-up is accompanied by a low (high) pass-through. In addition, positive repo rate changes are passed more to lending rate increase than policy rate decreases of the same magnitude. This is indicative of the asymmetric effects in the lending rate adjustment to increases and decreases in the repo rate changes. Evidence shows that the speed of correction towards equilibrium is bigger when lending rates are below the equilibrium compared to when lending rates are above the equilibrium. Lending rates adjusts upwards when below the equilibrium more quickly than adjusting downwards when they are above the equilibrium.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 25. Is There Evidence of Rigidity in the Corporate Lending Rate Adjustment Following Repo Rate Changes?
Abstract
The loan intermediation mark-up set for the corporate sector lending rate is 3 percentage points higher than that of the aggregated lending rate. This evidence indicates a substantially large loan intermediation mark-up pricing policy for the corporate sector. Evidence shows that the corporate sector lending rate responds faster (slower) to repo rate tightening (loosening). This shows that adjustment towards long-run equilibrium is quicker (slower) during contractionary (loosening) monetary policy. This evidence indicates that increases in the repo rate exert a different effect on the corporate sector lending rate compared to decreases of the same magnitude in the repo rate. The asymmetric responses may also be due to the low competition in the banking sector, existence of switching costs and adjustment costs.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 26. Does the Flexible Mortgage Rate Exhibit Asymmetric Response to Changes in the Repo Rate? Are the Effects Consistent with Upward or Downward Rigidity?
Abstract
Evidence indicates that the flexible mortgage rate exhibits asymmetric adjustment to the repo rate changes. The flexible mortgage rates display downward rigidity to policy rate changes. Increases in negative deviations from the equilibrium due to monetary policy tightening tend to be less persistent than positive discrepancies due to expansionary monetary policy. The prevalence of downward rigidity in the flexible mortgage rate implies that a reduction in the repo rate (expansionary monetary policy) will impact the economy differently compared to the effects of contractionary monetary policy. This evidence is characteristic of the prevalence of low competition in the banking sector, existence of switching costs and adjustment costs.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 27. What Is the Role of Competition in the Banking Sector on the Interest Rate Pass-Through and Loan Intermediation Mark-Up?
Abstract
Evidence shows that the interest rate pass-through increases (declines) in the high (low) banking sector competition regimes, whereas the loan intermediation mark-up declines (increases). The interest rate pass-through is generally much higher during monetary policy tightening cycles compared to loosening cycles, irrespective of banking sector competition regimes. This indicates prevalence of asymmetric lending rate reaction. The asymmetric lending rate response to the policy rate is exacerbated by the low banking sector competition, the prevailing economic conditions, banking sector NPLs and Excess CAR. Excess CAR acts as some form of barrier to entry in the banking sector which lower interest rate pass-through. Hence there is a case for a rigorous financial regulatory which includes differentiated framework for lower-tier banks.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 28. Does Consumption Growth Respond Asymmetrically to Positive and Negative Repo Rate Changes?
Abstract
Evidence shows that household consumption declines by a big margin to a repo rate tightening compared to an increase due to repo rate loosening. This indicates significant asymmetry in the household consumption  response to the repo rate changes. The implications are that repo rate tightening tends to have large impact on household  consumption compared to those due to the repo rate loosening. Furthermore, evidence shows that household consumption adjusts much faster to correct when the consumption  dis-equilibrium is above compared to when it is below the long-run equilibrium level.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Chapter 29. Does the Household Financial Wealth Explain the Asymmetric Response of Consumption to Monetary Policy Shock in South Africa?
Abstract
Evidence shows that in absolute terms, the decline in household consumption due to the repo rate tightening shocks exceeds the increase in household consumption following a repo rate loosening shock of the same magnitude. In addition, evidence show the asymmetric is linked to the role of household financial asset channel. Furthermore, household wealth amplifies the proportion of fluctuations very much in household consumption due to repo rate tightening shocks compared to those due to repo rate loosening shock.
Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Backmatter
Metadaten
Titel
Exchange Rate, Second Round Effects and Inflation Processes
verfasst von
Dr. Eliphas Ndou
Nombulelo Gumata
Dr. Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma
Copyright-Jahr
2019
Electronic ISBN
978-3-030-13932-2
Print ISBN
978-3-030-13931-5
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-13932-2