5. Fertility and Uncertainty in Modern Russia

This chapter is dedicated to fertility in Russia, in particular the probability of giving birth to the first child among women of fertile age (15–49) in 2000–2014 (the births of the higher order are investigated in Chap. 6). After a discussion of historical trends in fertility rates in Russia and of the theoretical background to childbirth determinants, we study the most important individual characteristics in women associated with a higher probability of having a first child. Second, we focus on a sub-sample of women living with a partner in registered or non-registered marriages and investigate whether the impact of individual characteristics changes when a partner’s characteristics are introduced into the set of explanatory characteristics. Third, recalling the transitional nature of the period under consideration, we address the role of uncertainty and insecurity on decisions to give birth. While in the Soviet period holding a job was not only a right but an obligation, unemployment and non-standard (e.g. temporary) employment appeared after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The share of temporary and part-time jobs has been expanding in Russia since the mid-1990s. To investigate the role of objective and subjective insecurity in the labour market on the probability of a first child birth, we extend the set of explanatory variables with type of contract, tenure, size of the enterprise, fear of losing a job and other characteristics.