nach oben

Erschienen in:

2014 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

6. Flexibly-Bounded Rationality in Interstate Conflict

verfasst von : Tshilidzi Marwala

Erschienen in: Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config

KI-gestützte Suche

Aus

Abstract

This chapter applies the theory of flexibly bounded rationality to interstate conflict. Flexibly bounded rationality is a theory that states that the bounds prescribed by Herbert Simon in his theory of bounded rationality are flexible. On contextualizing the theory of flexibly bounded rationality, inference, the theory of rational expectation, the theory of rational choice and the theory of rational conterfactuals are described. The theory of flexibly bounded rationality is applied for decision making process. This is done by using a multi-layer perceptron network and particle swarm optimization.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Vorheriges Kapitel Rational Counterfactuals and Decision Making: Application to Interstate Conflict

Nächstes Kapitel Filtering Irrelevant Information for Rational Decision Making

Nur mit Berechtigung zugänglich

Abdella M, Marwala T (2006) The use of genetic algorithms and neural networks to approximate missing data in database. Comput Inform 24:1001–1013

Adams RM (1976) Motive utilitarianism. J Philos 73(14):467–481CrossRef

Ahmed EA (2014) Bayesian estimation based on progressive type-II censoring from two-parameter bathtub-shaped lifetime model: an Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. J Appl Statist 41(4):752–768CrossRef

Allingham M (2002) Choice theory: a very short introduction. Oxford University Press, OxfordCrossRef

Anand P (1993) Foundations of rational choice under risk. Oxford University Press, Oxford

Angluin D, Smith CH (1983) Inductive inference: theory and methods. Comput Surv 15(3):237–269MathSciNetCrossRef

Anonymous (2010) Correlates of war project. http://www.correlatesofwar.org/. Accessed 20 Sep 2010

Anscombe GEM (1958) Modern moral philosophy. Philos 33(124):1–19

Aviad B, Roy G (2012) A decision support method, based on bounded rationality concepts, to reveal feature saliency in clustering problems. J Decis Support Syst 54(1):292–303CrossRef

Bentham J (2009) An introduction to the principles of morals and legislation (Dover Philosophical Classics). Dover Publications Inc. Mineola, New York

Berger JO (1980) Statistical decision theory and Bayesian analysis. Springer, HeidelbergCrossRef

Bicchieri C (1993) Rationality and coordination. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeMATH

Bishop CM (1995) Neural networks for pattern recognition. Oxford University Press, Oxford

Blume LE, Easley D (2008) Rationality. The new palgrave dictionary of economics 2nd edn. Abstract, Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke

Chen J, Choi J, Weiss BA, Stapleton L (2014) An empirical evaluation of mediation effect analysis with manifest and latent variables using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and alternative estimation methods. Struct Equ Model 21(2):253–262CrossRef

DeGroot M (1970) Optimal statistical decision. McGraw-Hill, New York

Foster KR, Kokko H (2009) The evolution of superstitious and superstition-like behaviour. Proc Biol Sci 276(1654):31–37CrossRef

Gama J (2013) Data stream mining: the bounded rationality. Informatica 37(1):21–25

Garšva G, Danenas P (2014) Particle swarm optimization for linear support vector machines based classifier selection. Nonlinear Anal Model Control 19(1):26–42MathSciNet

Grüne-Yanoff T (2012) Paradoxes of rational choice theory. In: Roeser S, Hillerbrand R, Sandin P, Peterson M (eds) Handbook of risk theory. Springer Netherlands, pp 499–516, doi:10.1007/978-94-007-1433-5_19

Günay M, Şarer B, Kasap H (2014) The effect on radiation damage of structural material in a hybrid system by using a Monte Carlo radiation transport code. Ann Nucl Energy 63:157–161CrossRef

Hlalele N, Nelwamondo FV, Marwala T (2009) Imputation of missing data using PCA, neurofuzzy and genetic algorithms. 15th International Conference, ICONIP 2008, part 4, Lecture notes in computer science, vol. 5507, pp 485–492

Janssen MCW (1993) Microfoundations: a critical inquiry. Routledge, London. International library of critical writings in economics, vol. 19. Aldershot, Hants, Elgar. pp 3-23. ISBN 978-1-85278-572–7

Jeffrey RC (ed) (1979) Studies in inductive logic and probability. University of California, Berkeley

Jenkins R, Curotto E, Mella M (2013) Replica exchange with smart Monte Carlo and hybrid Monte Carlo in manifolds. Chem Phys Lett 590:214–220CrossRef

Jiang R, Xie J, Wang N, Li J (2013) Evolution game analysis of water saving and pollution prevention for city user groups based on bounded rationality. Shuili Fadian Xuebao/J Hydroelectr Eng 32(1):31–36

Jin C, Jin S-W, Tan H-Y (2013) Computer virus propagation model based on bounded rationality evolutionary game theory. Secur Commun Netw 6(2):210–218MathSciNetCrossRef

Kahneman D (2011) Thinking, fast and slow. Macmillan, New York

Kahneman D, Tversky A (1979) Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47(2):263–291CrossRefMATH

Kennedy J, Eberhart R (1995) Particle swarm optimization. Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks IV. pp 1942–1948

Kim S, Kim G-H, Lee D (2014) Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo model for determining optimum tender price in multifamily housing projects. J Comput Civ Eng 28(3), (art. no. 06014001)

Lagazio M, Marwala T (2005) Assessing different Bayesian neural network models for militarized interstate dispute. Soc Sci Comput Rev 24(1):1–12

Liddle DE (2006) The wider impact of Moore’s Law. Solid State Circuits Soc Newsl 11(5):28–30CrossRef

Liu H, Ding G, Wang B (2014) Bare-bones particle swarm optimization with disruption operator. Appl Math Comput 238:106–122MathSciNetCrossRef

Lodhia HC (2005) The irrationality of rational expectations-an exploration into economic fallacy, 1st edn. Warwick University Press, Coventry

MacKay D (1991) Bayesian methods for adaptive models. PhD thesis, California Institute of Technology

MacKay DJC (1992) Bayesian methods for adaptive models. PhD thesis, 2nd edn California University of Technology

MacKay DJC (2003) Information theory, inference, and learning algorithms. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, ISBN 0-521-64298–64291MATH

Marais E (2009) The soul of the white ant, 1937. First published as Die Siel van die Mier in 1925, the Philovox

Marwala T (2006) Genetic approach to Bayesian training of neural networks. Proceedings of the IEEE International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, BC, Canada, pp 7013–7017

Marwala T (2009) Computational intelligence for missing data imputation, estimation and management: knowledge optimization techniques. IGI Global, New YorkCrossRef

Marwala T (2013) Flexibly-bounded rationality and marginalization of irrationality theories for decision making. arXiv:1306.2025

Marwala T (2014) Causality, correlation and artificial intelligence for rational decision making. World Scientific, Singapore (in press)

Marwala T, Lagazio M (2011) Militarized conflict modeling using computational intelligence techniques. Springer, HeidelbergCrossRef

Metropolis N, Rosenbluth AW, Rosenbluth MN, Teller AH, Teller E (1953) Equations of state calculations by fast computing machines. J Chem Phys 21(6):1087–1092CrossRef

Mill JS (2011) A system of logic, ratiocinative and inductive (Classic Reprint). Oxford University Press, Oxford

Mistry J, Nelwamondo FV, Marwala T (2006) Investigating demographic influences for HIV classification using Bayesian autoassociative neural networks. Lecture notes in computer science vol. 5507, pp 752–759

Moore GE (1965) Cramming more components onto integrated circuits. Electronics 38(8):114–117

Mthembu L, Marwala T, Friswell MI, Adhikari S (2010) Finite element model selection using particle swarm optimization Conference Proceedings of the Society for Experimental Mechanics Series, 1, vol 13, Dynamics of Civil Structures, vol 4, Springer London, pp 41-52 Tom Proulx (ed), 2010

Murata A, Kubo S, Hata N (2012) Study on promotion of cooperative behavior in social dilemma situation by introduction of bounded rationality-Effects of group heuristics on cooperative behavior. Proceedings of the SICE annual conference, (art. no. 6318444), pp 261–266

Muth JF (1961) Rational expectations and the theory of price movements. Econometrica 29(3):315-335. doi:10.2307/1909635. Reprinted In: Hoover KD, (ed) (1992) The new classical macroeconomics, vol. 1

Neal RM (1992) Bayesian training of back-propagation networks by the hybrid Monte Carlo Method. Technical Report CRG-TR −92-1, Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto

Nelwamondo FV, Marwala T (2007) Handling missing data from heteroskedastic and nonstationary data. Lecture notes in computer science vol 4491(1). Springer, Berlin, pp 1297–1306

Nozick R (1993) The nature of rationality. Princeton University Press, Princeton

O’Rourke P, Josephson J (eds) (1997) Automated abduction: inference to the best explanation. AAAI Press, California

Palma G, Bia P, Mescia L, Yano T, Nazabal V, Taguchi J, Moréac A, Prudenzano F (2014) Design of fiber coupled Er3+ :chalcogenide microsphere amplifier via particle swarm optimization algorithm. Opt Eng 53(7), (art. no. 071805), pp 1–8

Pantanowitz A, Marwala T (2009) Evaluating the impact of missing data imputation. Advanced data mining and application 5th international conference, ADMA 2009, Lecture notes in computer science vol. 5678. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 577–586

Patel P, Marwala T (2006) Neural networks, fuzzy inference systems and adaptive-neuro fuzzy inference systems for financial decision making. 13th international conference, ICONIP, Neural information processing, Lecture notes in computer science vol. 4234. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp 430–439

Psillos S (2009) An explorer upon untrodden ground: peirce on abduction. In: Gabbay DM, Hartmann S, Woods J (eds) Handbook of the history of logic 10. Elsevier. pp 117–152

Russell SJ, Norvig P (2003) Artificial intelligence: a modern approach, 2nd edn. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River

Sadeghi J, Sadeghi S, Niaki STA (2014) Optimizing a hybrid vendor-managed inventory and transportation problem with fuzzy demand: an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm. Inf Sci 272:126–144MathSciNetCrossRef

Sargent TJ (1987) Rational expectations. The new Palgrave dictionary of economics, 2nd edn, vol. 4. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, pp 76–79

Savin NE (1987) Rational expectations: econometric implications. The new Palgrave dictionary of economics, 2nd edn, vol. 4. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, pp 79–85

Sen A (2008) Rational behavior. The new Palgrave dictionary of economics, 2nd edn, vol. 4. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, pp 76–79

Simon H (1957) A behavioral model of rational choice. In: Models of man, social and rational: mathematical essays on rational human behavior in a social setting. Wiley, New York

Simon H (1991) Bounded rationality and organizational learning. Organ Sci 2(1):125–134CrossRef

Snowdon B, Vane H, Wynarczyk P (1994) A modern guide to macroeconomics. An introduction to competing schools of thought. Cambridge, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, pp 236–279, ISBN: 1-85278-884-4 HB

Spohn W (2002) The many facets of the theory of rationality. Croat J Philos 2(3):247–262

Stanciu-Viziteu LD (2012) The shark game: equilibrium with bounded rationality. Managing market complexity. The approach of artificial economics. Lecture notes in economics mathematical systems, vol. 662. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp 103–111

Takaishi T (2014) Bayesian estimation of realized stochastic volatility model by hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm. J Phys Conf Ser 490(1), (art. no. 012092), arXiv:1408.0981

Tisdell C (1996) Bounded rationality and economic evolution: a contribution to decision making, economics, and management. Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, Cheltenham

Tsang EPK (2008) Computational intelligence determines effective rationality. Intl J Autom Control 5(1):63–66

Valdez F, Melin P, Castillo O (2014) Modular neural networks architecture optimization with a new nature inspired method using a fuzzy combination of particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithms. Inf Sci 270:143–153CrossRef

Vyse SA (2000) Believing in magic: the psychology of superstition. Oxford University Press, Oxford

Widom M, Huhn WP, Maiti S, Steurer W (2014) Hybrid Monte Carlo/molecular dynamics simulation of a refractory metal high entropy alloy. Metall Mater Trans 45(1):196–200CrossRef

Yao J, Li D (2013) Bounded rationality as a source of loss aversion and optimism: a study of psychological adaptation under incomplete information. J Econ Dyn Control 37(1):18–31MathSciNetCrossRef

Titel: Flexibly-Bounded Rationality in Interstate Conflict
verfasst von: Tshilidzi Marwala
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-11423-1

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-11424-8

Copyright-Jahr: 2014
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-11424-8_6

Springer Professional

Abstract

Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu Ihrer Lizenz zu erhalten.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Springer Professional "Technik"

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"