1987 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
Forecasting Contemporaneously Aggregated Known Processes
verfasst von : Prof.Dr. Helmut Lütkepohl
Erschienen in: Forecasting Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Enthalten in: Professional Book Archive
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A contemporaneous aggregate of the variables x1t,…,xKt at time t is their sum or weighted sum, yt = f1x1t + … + fkxKt, where the fk, k = 1,…,K, are the aggregation weights. Examples are numerous in economics. For instance, the Gross National Product (y) is the sum of Private Consumption Expenditures (x1), Gross Private Domestic Investment (x2), Government Expenditures (x3) and Net Exports (x4), that is, in this case the aggregation weights are all equal to one, f1 = f2 = f3 = f4 = 1. Also price indices are weighted sums of prices of different commodities. In fact, practically all macroeconomic variables and many micro economic variables as well are contemporaneous aggregates of some sort. Therefore systems of contemporaneous aggregates are often of interest. Such a system, say y = (y1,…,yM)', can be written as a linear transformation of the disaggregate components x = (x1,…,xk)', that is y = Fx where F is a suitable (M x K) transformation matrix. Thus, if analyzing a contemporaneously aggregated vector stochastic process xt is the aim, linear transformations yt = Fxt must be considered. Therefore linear transformations of vector stochastic processes are the subject of this chapter. It will be assumed that the aggregation matrix F is the same for all periods, that is, F does not depend on t.