Forecasts for Strategy

The null strategy method was advocated in Chapter 12 for analysing the adequacy of the firm’s current plans, postures and markets. Some methods of strategy selection were discussed in Chapter 13. But in neither chapter did we attempt to deal with the problem of forecasting. The future was taken, in those chapters, as a given. While that was appropriate enough in view of the subjects of these two chapters, it is patently clear that the future is not given at all. But the probable future state of the world is crucial to success in strategy selection. Strategic forecasting is necessary—even if it is only intuitive. This chapter considers some approaches to this topic, and suggests the circumstances under which each is best.