4. Frictionless (Good) Materials

Thomas Malthus was a nineteenth century economist best known for predicting the demise of civilization through an increase in population that could not be met by natural resources and the means of production. His famous quote was “the power of population is infinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man” (Malthus and Appleman 1976). Although he predicted the demise of resources and population growth just before the Industrial Revolution when the utilization of fossil fuels led to an extension of the ability to manage large population growth (Big O), his ideas have a lasting purpose to our economic problem, even today. Since Malthus, the issue of resource exhaustion has remained a significant topic of debate, from a scare that the industrialized world would run out of coal in 1865 to the Peak Oil concern of today, and others. Yet despite the debate and economic forecasts, coal and oil prices have remained constant throughout most of the twentieth century until recently when confidence in the long-term supply became of concern (Palmer 2010). The question now is this: when do we reach the point when a material runs low and a replacement is found versus when we reach an end that leads to an economic catastrophe? When is it that an economist or ecologist a chicken little for promoting doom and gloom and when can the innovator no longer devise the next alternative in time?