5. Indigenous Egyptian Nubians and Climate Change Mitigation

Egypt and Sudan are the most populous countries in Africa and the Middle East. The Nile is considered as a very important artery that joins Sudan and Egypt and was an important part of ancient Egyptian spiritual life. Nubian peoples are an ethnic group and considered as one of the most ancient peoples in the world, their civilization started more than 8,000 years ago. Lake Nasser is the second largest man-made lake in the world; among the impacts that were anticipated were the resettlement of the Nubian population in the area inundated by the reservoir, saving of historic monuments, health impacts and coastal erosion. The climate models all estimate a steady increase in temperatures for Egypt, with little intermeddle variance. Somewhat more warming is estimated for summer than for winter. However, since Egypt is mainly a desert and relies primarily on irrigated agriculture, precipitation over the country itself matters very little. Much more important are precipitation changes at the water sources of the Nile, which affect the vulnerability of the water resources. The potential impacts of climate change on coastal resources are ranked as most serious and climate change induced sea level rise reinforces this trend. In addition to this high biophysical exposure to the risk of sea level rise, Egypt’s social sensitivity to sea level rise is particularly high. In general, although the models on average show an increase in precipitation, inter-model variation is so high that it is uncertain as to predict whether annual average precipitation will increase or decrease.