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Erschienen in:
2007 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
Ingredients-Based Forecasting
verfasst von : Harold E. Brooks
Erschienen in: Atmospheric Convection: Research and Operational Forecasting Aspects
Verlag: Springer Vienna
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Forecasting the weather can be thought of as a problem in extracting a small signal from a noisy background field. Much information is available to the forecaster, but, frequently, only a small amount of that information is of importance for solving the forecast problem(s) of the day. As a result, an approach to forecasting must maximize the efficiency of the process. An effective way, particularly for hazardous weather, is to identify the ingredients required to produce a particular weather event and then to focus on the processes that can affect the presence of those ingredients. This allows the forecaster to narrow the range of aspects of the observations and model guidance that are considered during the forecast shift and, it is hoped, identify crucial developments as they occur.