1 Introduction
2 Conceptual framework
2.1 World Input–Output table
Intermediate use | Final use | Total use | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Country 1 | . | Country M | Countries | ||||||||||
Industries | Industries | ||||||||||||
1 | . | N | . | 1 | . | N | 1 | . | M | (x) | |||
Supply | EU- | Ind. 1 | \(x_{11}^{11}\) | \(x_{1N}^{11}\) | \(x_{M1}^{11}\) | \(x_{MN}^{11}\) | \(y_{1}^{11}\) | \(y_{M}^{11}\) | \(x^{11}\) | ||||
Country | . | ||||||||||||
(1) | Ind. N | \(x_{11}^{1N}\) | \(x_{1N}^{1N}\) | \(x_{M1}^{1N}\) | \(x_{MN}^{1N}\) | \(y_{1}^{1N}\) | \(y_{M}^{1N}\) | \(x^{1N}\) | |||||
EU- | Ind. 1 | \(x_{11}^{m1}\) | \(x_{1N}^{m1}\) | \(x_{M1}^{m1}\) | \(x_{MN}^{m1}\) | \(y_{1}^{m1}\) | \(y_{M}^{m1}\) | \(x^{m1}\) | |||||
Country | . | ||||||||||||
(m) | Ind. N | \(x_{11}^{mN}\) | \(x_{1N}^{mN}\) | \(x_{M1}^{mN}\) | \(x_{MN}^{mN}\) | \(y_{1}^{mN}\) | \(y_{M}^{mN}\) | \(x^{mN}\) | |||||
United | Ind. 1 | \(x_{11}^{m+1,1}\) | \(x_{1N}^{m+1,1}\) | \(x_{M1}^{m+1,1}\) | \(x_{MN}^{m+1,1}\) | \(y_{1}^{m+1,1}\) | \(y_{M}^{m+1,1}\) | \(x^{m+1,1}\) | |||||
Kingdom | . | ||||||||||||
(\(m+1\)) | Ind. N | \(x_{11}^{m+1,N}\) | \(x_{1N}^{m+1,N}\) | \(x_{M1}^{m+1,N}\) | \(x_{MN}^{m+1,N}\) | \(y_{1}^{m+1,N}\) | \(y_{M}^{m+1,N}\) | \(x^{m+1,N}\) | |||||
Non-EU | Ind. 1 | \(x_{11}^{m+2,1}\) | \(x_{1N}^{m+2,1}\) | \(x_{M1}^{m+2,1}\) | \(x_{MN}^{m+2,1}\) | \(y_{1}^{m+2,1}\) | \(y_{M}^{m+2,1}\) | \(x^{m+2,1}\) | |||||
Country | . | ||||||||||||
(\(m+2\)) | Ind. N | \(x_{11}^{m+2,N}\) | \(x_{1N}^{m+2,N}\) | \(x_{M1}^{m+2,N}\) | \(x_{MN}^{m+2,N}\) | \(y_{1}^{m+2,N}\) | \(y_{M}^{m+2,N}\) | \(x^{m+2,N}\) | |||||
Non-EU | Ind. 1 | \(x_{11}^{M1}\) | \(x_{1N}^{M1}\) | \(x_{M1}^{M1}\) | \(x_{MN}^{M1}\) | \(y_{1}^{M1}\) | \(y_{M}^{M1}\) | \(x^{M,1}\) | |||||
Country | . | ||||||||||||
(M) | Ind. N | \(x_{11}^{MN}\) | \(x_{1N}^{MN}\) | \(x_{M1}^{MN}\) | \(x_{MN}^{MN}\) | \(y_{1}^{MN}\) | \(y_{M}^{MN}\) | \(x^{M,N}\) | |||||
Value added by labour and capital | |||||||||||||
Gross output (\(x'\)) | \(x^{11}\) | \(x^{1N}\) | \(x^{M,1}\) | \(x^{M,N}\) |
2.2 British final import demand and EU gross output after Brexit
2.3 Employment effects
2.4 Regional disaggregation
3 Results and discussion
3.1 Output effects by country
Country | Direct | Indirect | Total | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|
In relation to gross output (in %) | In relation to value added (in%) | |||
AUS | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
AUT | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.31 | 0.24 |
BEL | 0.46 | 0.37 | 0.83 | 0.62 |
BGR | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 0.20 |
BRA | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
CAN | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
CHE | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.07 |
CHN | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
CYP | 0.15 | 0.44 | 0.59 | 0.47 |
CZE | 0.26 | 0.42 | 0.68 | 0.52 |
DEU | 0.29 | 0.32 | 0.61 | 0.49 |
DNK | 0.28 | 0.26 | 0.54 | 0.39 |
ESP | 0.21 | 0.24 | 0.45 | 0.31 |
EST | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.16 |
FIN | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.12 |
FRA | 0.18 | 0.22 | 0.40 | 0.30 |
GBR | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.07 |
GRC | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.11 |
HRV | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 0.21 |
HUN | 0.22 | 0.34 | 0.56 | 0.42 |
IDN | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
IND | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
IRL | 1.82 | 0.56 | 2.38 | 1.87 |
ITA | 0.15 | 0.24 | 0.38 | 0.29 |
JPN | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
KOR | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
LTU | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 0.22 |
LUX | 0.15 | 0.34 | 0.50 | 0.39 |
LVA | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 0.16 |
MEX | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
MLT | 4.25 | 1.73 | 5.98 | 5.09 |
NLD | 0.29 | 0.34 | 0.63 | 0.51 |
NOR | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
POL | 0.23 | 0.35 | 0.58 | 0.50 |
PRT | 0.17 | 0.20 | 0.37 | 0.26 |
ROU | 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.24 |
RUS | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
SVK | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0.90 | 0.64 |
SVN | 0.06 | 0.20 | 0.26 | 0.21 |
SWE | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 0.25 |
TUR | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
TWN | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
USA | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
EU-27 | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.40 |
3.2 Potential employment effects by country
Country | Affected persons | Total | Share of affected persons | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct (1000 pers.) | Indirect (1000 pers.) | Sum (1000 pers.) | Employment (1000 pers.) | Direct (%) | Indirect (%) | Sum (%) | |
AUS | 0.000 | 0.751 | 0.751 | 11,863 | 0.000 | 0.006 | 0.006 |
AUT | 2.773 | 6.624 | 9.397 | 4268 | 0.065 | 0.155 | 0.220 |
BEL | 13.338 | 14.837 | 28.175 | 4547 | 0.293 | 0.326 | 0.620 |
BGR | 2.401 | 5.857 | 8.258 | 3602 | 0.067 | 0.163 | 0.229 |
BRA | 0.000 | 18.711 | 18.711 | 104,029 | 0.000 | 0.018 | 0.018 |
CAN | 0.000 | 2.298 | 2.298 | 18,449 | 0.000 | 0.012 | 0.012 |
CHE | 0.000 | 3.129 | 3.129 | 5084 | 0.000 | 0.062 | 0.062 |
CHN | 0.000 | 90.862 | 90.862 | 858,368 | 0.000 | 0.011 | 0.011 |
CYP | 0.431 | 1.082 | 1.513 | 357 | 0.121 | 0.303 | 0.424 |
CZE | 7.906 | 17.813 | 25.719 | 5111 | 0.155 | 0.349 | 0.503 |
DEU | 63.068 | 113.281 | 176.349 | 42,706 | 0.148 | 0.265 | 0.413 |
DNK | 4.505 | 5.805 | 10.310 | 2765 | 0.163 | 0.210 | 0.373 |
ESP | 23.463 | 32.456 | 55.918 | 17,966 | 0.131 | 0.181 | 0.311 |
EST | 0.411 | 0.572 | 0.983 | 620 | 0.066 | 0.092 | 0.159 |
FIN | 0.726 | 2.091 | 2.818 | 2502 | 0.029 | 0.084 | 0.113 |
FRA | 31.536 | 49.104 | 80.640 | 27,295 | 0.116 | 0.180 | 0.295 |
GBR | 0.000 | 21.754 | 21.754 | 30,726 | 0.000 | 0.071 | 0.071 |
GRC | 1.622 | 2.378 | 4.000 | 3965 | 0.041 | 0.060 | 0.101 |
HRV | 1.848 | 1.887 | 3.736 | 1569 | 0.118 | 0.120 | 0.238 |
HUN | 5.420 | 10.251 | 15.671 | 4235 | 0.128 | 0.242 | 0.370 |
IDN | 0.000 | 22.484 | 22.484 | 168,808 | 0.000 | 0.013 | 0.013 |
IND | 0.000 | 59.128 | 59.128 | 658,776 | 0.000 | 0.009 | 0.009 |
IRL | 26.168 | 9.356 | 35.524 | 1914 | 1.367 | 0.489 | 1.856 |
ITA | 23.917 | 48.262 | 72.179 | 24,371 | 0.098 | 0.198 | 0.296 |
JPN | 0.000 | 5.112 | 5.112 | 61,232 | 0.000 | 0.008 | 0.008 |
KOR | 0.000 | 3.861 | 3.861 | 24,446 | 0.000 | 0.016 | 0.016 |
LTU | 1.148 | 1.738 | 2.886 | 1319 | 0.087 | 0.132 | 0.219 |
LUX | 0.367 | 0.996 | 1.364 | 403 | 0.091 | 0.247 | 0.338 |
LVA | 0.411 | 1.019 | 1.430 | 900 | 0.046 | 0.113 | 0.159 |
MEX | 0.000 | 2.283 | 2.283 | 38,997 | 0.000 | 0.006 | 0.006 |
MLT | 3.296 | 3.181 | 6.478 | 190 | 1.735 | 1.674 | 3.409 |
NLD | 15.484 | 22.897 | 38.381 | 8727 | 0.177 | 0.262 | 0.440 |
NOR | 0.000 | 1.137 | 1.137 | 2747 | 0.000 | 0.041 | 0.041 |
POL | 29.122 | 49.445 | 78.567 | 15,577 | 0.187 | 0.317 | 0.504 |
PRT | 7.133 | 8.543 | 15.676 | 4546 | 0.157 | 0.188 | 0.345 |
ROU | 8.423 | 14.844 | 23.267 | 8805 | 0.096 | 0.169 | 0.264 |
RUS | 0.000 | 17.501 | 17.501 | 74,286 | 0.000 | 0.024 | 0.024 |
SVK | 4.158 | 7.418 | 11.577 | 2227 | 0.187 | 0.333 | 0.520 |
SVN | 0.438 | 1.490 | 1.928 | 941 | 0.047 | 0.158 | 0.205 |
SWE | 4.044 | 7.045 | 11.090 | 4750 | 0.085 | 0.148 | 0.233 |
TUR | 0.000 | 14.249 | 14.249 | 32,326 | 0.000 | 0.044 | 0.044 |
TWN | 0.000 | 3.998 | 3.998 | 20,207 | 0.000 | 0.020 | 0.020 |
USA | 0.000 | 26.222 | 26.222 | 155,769 | 0.000 | 0.017 | 0.017 |
EU-27 | 283.556 | 440.273 | 723.832 | 196,178 | 0.145 | 0.224 | 0.367 |