Learning Curve Models

In using learning curves for AMT startup, we seek to identify a number of patterns in the basic data, each of which is an important source of information to be fed into the management control machinery. These patterns may be classified as follows: 1.A trend line, which in some “best” sense can be used for predicting future output. This line can be influenced by proper design and planning of the product line.2.“Normal” scatter about the trend line, which constitutes a natural and acceptable variation, and which can be used for setting the upper and lower bounds of predicted output.3.“Abnormal” scatter about the trend line, which results in an unacceptable variation. It indicates an avoidable loss in production which can be traced to an assignable cause and hence eliminated by management control.4.“Deterministic” changes in the trend line. These may be long- or short-term, and have an assignable cause. An example of a management-induced cause is a planned change in the size or constitution of the direct labour force.