1 Introduction
2 Methods
2.1 Site description
West Kotawaringin district | Kapuas district | Source | |
---|---|---|---|
Area (km2) | 8381 | 17,339 | BPS, 2013 |
Population density (people/km2) | 28 | 19 | BPS, 2013 |
Annual population growth rate (%) | 4.2 | 0.7 | BPS, 2013 |
Per capita income (USD/year) | 1860 | 1510 | BPS, 2013 |
2010 forest cover (%) | 52 | 74 | MoF, 2010 |
Dominant forest use | Timber | Timber, NTFPs | Land-cover map 2010 (TBI Indonesia) |
(Potential) land-use and land-cover change | Oil palm plantation (community and/or company scale) | Permanent agroforestry rubber, timber plantation | FGD in March 2014 |
2.2 LUCES model
2.2.1 Model description
2.2.2 Input maps and parameter values
Data | Year | Source |
---|---|---|
Land-cover map | 1990, 2000, 2005, 2010 | MoF, TBI Indonesia, ICRAF |
Map of oil palm plantations (based on permit status) | 2013 | FNPF, OVI |
Map of logging and forest plantation concessions | 2010 | MoF |
Map of soil and plantation suitability | 2012 | Balittanah and ICRAF |
Map of peat type and distribution | 2010 | Wetland International |
Provincial spatial planning map | 2003 | Provincial government |
Baseline map | 2000 | |
Data on demography, production, prices, markets and employment at the subdistrict level | 1990, 2000,2005, 2010 | National Statistics Bureau |
Ecosystem supply per land-use type | 2010 | Sumarga et al. 2014, 2015 |
Returns on land and labour | 2010 | Suwarno et al. 2016 |
Perceptions, learning, knowledge and selected agents for land change and ecosystem services | 2012, 2013, 2014 | Survey, personal communications, FGDs, scientific assumptions |
2.2.3 Process overview and scheduling
2.2.4 Scenarios and model simulations
No. | Scenario | Description | Remarks |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Business as usual (BAU) | - Protection for peat forest from conversion activities on a company scale (2011–2014) - Illegal conversion of peat forest on a community scale | - No change in road network and market prices is assumed during the 15 years simulation - Settlement distribution change based on the change in land demand and centre of economic activities |
2 | Extended moratorium (EM) | Similar to BAU, plus: - Extension of the period for protection of peat forest from conversion activities on a company scale (2011–2036) - New oil palm and timber plantations on a company scale can only be established on mineral soil | - Same as BAU |
3 | Moratorium plus livelihoods (MPL) | Similar to EM plus: - Increasing the market prices for NTFP, agroforestry products and community timber by about 15 % - Local demand for timber can only be supplied from community timber plantations | - Support the NTFP market chain, agroforestry products and community timber products - Increase illegal logging litigation - Other conditions are the same as BAU |
2.2.5 Model validation
3 Results
3.1 Land-cover output maps
3.2 Ecosystem service supply
Ecosystem services (×1,000,000) | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario | Timber (m3) | Rattan (ton) | Jelutong (ton) | Agroforest rubber (ton) | Rice (ton) | Oil palm (ton) | Above ground carbon (ton CO2e) | Peat carbon (ton CO2e) | Total carbon (ton CO2e) | Annual emissions (ton CO2e) |
Kapuas district | ||||||||||
Initial 2010 | 43 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.01 | 0.5 | 0.08 | 759 | 2781 | 3540 | |
BAU 2025 | 40 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 721 | 2752 | 3446 | 6.3 |
EM 2025 | 41 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 730 | 2730 | 3460 | 6.1 |
MPL 2025 | 41 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 736 | 2726 | 3467 | 3.9 |
West Kotawaringin district | ||||||||||
Initial 2010 | 14 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 2 | 276 | 439 | 716 | |
BAU 2025 | 9 | 0.2 | 0.06 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 3.5 | 213 | 416 | 629 | 6.5 |
EM 2025 | 10 | 0.3 | 0.07 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 215 | 422 | 637 | 6.1 |
MPL 2025 | 15 | 0.6 | 0.09 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 2.7 | 234 | 457 | 691 | 5.1 |