Long-Term Oil Substitution—The IEA-Markal Model and Some Simulation Results for Sweden

The MARKAL model used in the International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Systems Analysis Project is surveyed in this paper. MARKAL is a multiperiod, multi-objective linear programming model that represents a nation’s energy system. It includes new and conventional technologies, applies various policy and physical constraints and optimizes in accordance with some specific criteria (usually cost minimization). The cost-minimizing principle as a basis for a cooperative international strategy is also discussed. The trade-offs between system costs and oil imports for Sweden are outlined. Some results concerning the structural change in supply and demand technologies associated with these trade-offs are also reported.