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2013 | Buch

The Analytic Network Process Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process

Economic, Political, Social and Technological Applications with Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks

verfasst von: Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Verlag: Springer US

Buchreihe : International Series in Operations Research & Management Science

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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Über dieses Buch

The Analytic Network Process (ANP), developed by Thomas Saaty in his work on multicriteria decision making, applies network structures with dependence and feedback to complex decision making. This new edition of Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process is a selection of the latest applications of ANP to economic, social and political decisions, and also to technological design. The ANP is a methodological tool that is helpful to organize knowledge and thinking, elicit judgments registered in both in memory and in feelings, quantify the judgments and derive priorities from them, and finally synthesize these diverse priorities into a single mathematically and logically justifiable overall outcome. In the process of deriving this outcome, the ANP also allows for the representation and synthesis of diverse opinions in the midst of discussion and debate.

The book focuses on the application of the ANP in three different areas: economics, the social sciences and the linking of measurement with human values. Economists can use the ANP for an alternate approach for dealing with economic problems than the usual mathematical models on which economics bases its quantitative thinking. For psychologists, sociologists and political scientists, the ANP offers the methodology they have sought for some time to quantify and derive measurements for intangibles. Finally the book applies the ANP to provide people in the physical and engineering sciences with a quantitative method to link hard measurement to human values. In such a process, one is able to interpret the true meaning of measurements made on a uniform scale using a unit.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. The Analytic Network Process
Abstract
Analysis to break down a problem into its constituent components to study their behavior has been the major tool of scientific inquiry to test hypotheses and solve problems. It has proven to be extremely successful in dealing with the world of matter and energy. It has enabled man to land on the moon, to harness the energy of the atom, to master global communication, to invent the computer and to produce tens of thousands of useful and not so useful things. But it has not been so effective in the world of man.
Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas
Chapter 2. Forecasting the Resurgence of the U. S. Economy in 2001: An Expert Judgment Approach
Abstract
Building on work done earlier this chapter illustrates our use of the Analytic Hierarchy/Network Process to produce a December 2008 forecast of when the U.S. economy would begin to recover from the contraction that, according to an announcement dated December 1, 2008, from the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), began during the month of December, 2007. Here we illustrate two approaches.
Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas
Chapter 3. An Analytic Network Process Model for Financial-Crisis Forecasting
Abstract
William Stanley Jevons (1835–1882) was a highly respected and influential economist and statistician of his time. Jevons argued in his book, Investigations in Currency and Finance, the economy underwent a series of “commercial crises,” which he traced back to the eighteenth century.
Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas
Chapter 4. Outsourcing a Firm’s Application Development Group
Abstract
Outsourcing Information Technology (IT) functions is a growing trend in businesses looking for ways to reduce cost and hasten time-to-market of customer-facing and internal applications. The strategy of outsourcing functions, tasks, and activities to another company has existed for decades. During periods of recession, U.S. corporations cut costs by moving jobs that are of a repetitive nature to lower-cost regions, typically “offshore” or in non-U.S. countries. For example, manufacturing companies have been leveraging offshore resources since the 1950s, while the off-shoring of IT started about 10–15 years ago with the movement of legacy system maintenance tasks to Ireland and Canada.
Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas
Chapter 5. ANWR: Artic National Wildlife Refuge an ANP Validation Example
Abstract
ANWR-Arctic National Wildlife Refuge covers 19 million acres on the Northern coast of Alaska. The entire refuge lies north of the Arctic Circle and 1,300 miles south of the North Pole. The Coastal Plain area comprising 1.5 million acres on the northern edge of ANWR, is bordered on the north by the Beaufort Sea, on the east by the U.S. Canadian border and on the west by the Canning River. The consensus of the geologic community is that the Coastal Plain of ANWR represents the highest petroleum potential onshore area yet to be explored in North America. If explored, it is estimated that it will take 15 years or more before oil and gas will reach the market.
Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas
Chapter 6. The Ford Explorer Case
Abstract
In August 9, 2000 the companies Firestone and Ford announced a recall of 6.5 million tires that contained a safety-related defect. The recall was the result of an abnormal high rate of treads separations that caused catastrophic rollover crashes which maimed and killed drivers and passengers. At that time, the companies’ had jointly decides that Decatur was the appropriate focus for a recall of Wilderness AT tires, thus excluding millions of identical tires made in Firestone’s Wilson, North Carolina and Joilette, Quebec, Canada plants.
Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas
Chapter 7. Synthesis of Complex Criteria Decision Making: A Case Towards a Consensus Agreement for a Middle East Conflict Resolution
Abstract
The Middle East conflict is not a series of wars tending toward peace, but a state of continued belligerency interrupted by war. It is not a single isolated problem to be solved but a system of people with conflicting aspirations. Physically, the problem is geographic with two parties desiring the same piece of land, but its origins are deeply rooted in people’s beliefs and in their attachments to a land consecrated by their great religions.
Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas
Chapter 8. U. S. Energy Security
Abstract
There has been an ongoing debate in the United States ever since the Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group was submitted for consideration by Vice President Dick Cheney to President George W. Bush on May 16, 2001. The statements and recommendations of the report have been so controversial since its public release that senate and house committee meetings have been held along with requests that the Vice President come before Congress to explain what was discussed behind closed doors.
Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas
Chapter 9. Stabilizing Social Security for the Long-Term
Abstract
President Roosevelt founded Social Security in 1935. In 1937, the Federal Insurance Contribution Act (FICA) was signed and mandated that workers contribute 2 % of wages.
Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas
Chapter 10. When Shall Poland Enter the Euro Zone?
Abstract
January 1, 2002 brought the European Union into life when 300 million EU inhabitants in Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Greece, Spain, Holland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Germany, Portugal and Italy received a new currency—the Euro. On May 1st 2004, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Malta, Poland, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia and Hungary joined the European Union, and on January 1, 2007 Bulgaria and Romania committed themselves to enter the monetary union as soon as possible, after they fulfill convergence criteria established by the Maastricht Treaty of February 7, 1992 by which all EU member countries shall, as the end result, enter the economic and currency union. Entering countries had or have to accept the Treaty without any conditions. Only Great Britain and Denmark had not entered the euro zone, but they have an “opt-out” clause by which they can, but do not have to, enter, whereas Sweden did not manage to get social acceptance on giving up their “crown” and accepting the euro in the 2003 referendum, without defining the date of its entry into the currency union. Bulgaria and Romania have still to convert to the euro currency despite entering the European Union January 1, 2007.
Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas
Chapter 11. The Conflict Between China and Taiwan
Abstract
A long-festering problem now threatens the peace and stability of the Asia–Pacific region. As Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Stanley Roth warned Congress on March 25, 1999, the Taiwan issue—or, as we prefer to say, the “Divided China” problem—has become “one of the United States most complex and important foreign policy challenges for many years to come.” Most of countries are concerned that the crisis has arrived.
Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas
Chapter 12. U. S. Response to North Korean Nuclear Threat
Abstract
As more and more countries around the world begin to develop nuclear weapons, the threat of a nuclear attack against the United States increases. In addition to the threat directly posed by these countries, there is also the threat that nuclear weapons could be sold or given to other hostile countries or to terrorists. North Korea is one country whose development of nuclear weapons represents a threat to the United States, somewhat aggravated by the confrontational attitude of its leader, Kim Jong-un.
Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas
Chapter 13. Criteria for Evaluating Group Decision-Making Methods
Abstract
In this chapter we are concerned with the development of criteria for evaluating different methods of group decision-making that range from the strictly technical, to the psychophysical and social, and finally, to the logical and scientific. Our purpose is to identify similarities and differences with the aim of showing from such wide consideration which method is more attractive, and is likely to gain greater attention both in academia and in practice.
Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas
Chapter 14. An Innovative Orders-of-Magnitude Approach to AHP-Based Multicriteria Decision Making: Prioritizing Divergent Intangible Humane Acts
Abstract
The past we inherit; the future we create, the saying goes. To create a credible future that is founded on our global values and priorities we need to learn how to deal with the immense variety of factors and with the expanse of the many dimensions of this variety.
Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas
Chapter 15. Sensitivity Analysis in the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Abstract
In model building using the AHP, sensitivity analysis is a crucial step in determining if the solution is implementable and robust. For example, Zhong and Gu (2010) developed an AHP model to assess black-start schemes for fast restoration of a power system.
Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas
Backmatter
Metadaten
Titel
Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process
verfasst von
Thomas L. Saaty
Luis G. Vargas
Copyright-Jahr
2013
Verlag
Springer US
Electronic ISBN
978-1-4614-7279-7
Print ISBN
978-1-4614-7278-0
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-7279-7

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