11.1 Introduction
11.2 Overview of Metal Requirements for each Technology
11.2.1 Solar PV
11.2.2 Wind
11.2.3 Batteries and Electric Vehicles
11.3 Scenarios and Key Assumptions
11.3.1 Electricity and Transport Scenarios
11.3.2 Resource Scenario Development
Scenario name | Market share/ materials efficiency | Recycling | Colour in figures |
---|---|---|---|
Total demand | Current materials intensity and current market share | No recycling | Red |
Current recycling | Current materials intensity and current market share | Current recycling rates | Pink |
Potential recycling | Current materials intensity and current market share | Improved recycling rates | Orange |
Future technology | Improved materials efficiency for PV and current market share Technology shift for batteries | No recycling | Dark blue |
Future technology & potential recycling | Improved materials efficiency for PV and current market share Technology shift for batteries | Improved recycling rates | Light blue |
11.3.3 Technology Assumptions
11.3.4 Batteries
Solar PV | Batteries | ||
---|---|---|---|
Materials | Silver | Lithium | Cobalt |
Current materials intensity | 20 t/GW | 113 t/GWh | 124 t/GWh |
Future technology | 4 t/GW | 411 t/GWh | |
Current recycling rate [%] | 0% | 0% | 90% |
Potential recycling rate [%] | 81% | 95% | 95% |
Solar PV | Batteries | ||
---|---|---|---|
Technology | c-Si | Li-ion | Li-S |
Current market share | 95.8% | 100% | |
Future market share | Decreases to 50% by 2050 | 50% by 2050, beginning from 2030 |
11.3.5 Solar PV
11.3.6 Metal Assumptions
Metal | Production 2017 (tonnes/year) | Reserve (tonnes) | Resources (tonnes) |
---|---|---|---|
Cobalt | 110,000 | 7,100,000 | 25,000,000 |
Lithium | 46,500 | 16,000,000 | 53,000,000 |
Silver | 25,000 | 530,000 | N/A |
11.4 Results for Lithium, Cobalt, and Silver
11.4.1 Cobalt
11.4.2 Lithium
11.4.3 Silver
11.5 Discussion
11.5.1 Limitations
11.5.2 Comparison with Other Studies
Study | Energy Scenario | Metals (% of reserves up to 2050) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Cobalt | Lithium | Silver | ||
This study | 1.5 °C100% renewable energy scenario | 420% | 170% | 50% |
Watari et al. (2018) | Beyond 2 degree scenario (IEA) | 180% | 130% | 78% |
Månberger and Stenqvist (2018) | Beyond 2 degree scenario (IEA) | 440% | 100% | 18% |
Valero et al. (2018) | 2 degree scenario | 70% | 40% | 70% |