Skip to main content

2019 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Mirror, Mirror on the Wall, Who Is Leaving of Them All: Predictions for Employee Turnover with Gated Recurrent Neural Networks

verfasst von : Joao Marcos de Oliveira, Matthäus P. Zylka, Peter A. Gloor, Tushar Joshi

Erschienen in: Collaborative Innovation Networks

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Employee turnover is a serious issue for organizations and disrupts the organizational behavior in several ways. Hence, predicting employee turnover might help organizations to react to these mostly negative events with, e.g., improved employee retention strategies. Current studies use a “standard analysis approach” (Steel, Academy of Management Review 27:346–360, 2002) to predict employee turnover; accuracy in predicting turnover by this approach is only low to moderate. To address this shortcoming, we conduct a deep learning experiment to predict employee turnover. Based on a unique dataset containing 12 months of time series of e-mail communication from 3952 managers, our model reached an accuracy of 80.0%, a precision of 74.5%, a recall of 84.4%, and a Matthews correlation coefficient value of 61.5%. This paper contributes to turnover literature by providing a novel analytical perspective on key elements of turnover models.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Fußnoten
1
Some employees had more than one e-mail account in this company. In these cases, we merged the multiple e-mail accounts of an employee into one.
 
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Chambers, E., Foulon, M., Handfield-Jones, H., Hanking, S. M., & Michaels, E. G., III. (1998). War for talent. The McKinsey Quarterly, 3, 44–57. Chambers, E., Foulon, M., Handfield-Jones, H., Hanking, S. M., & Michaels, E. G., III. (1998). War for talent. The McKinsey Quarterly, 3, 44–57.
Zurück zum Zitat Chang, H. Y. (2009). Employee turnover: A novel prediction solution with effective feature selection. WSEAS Transactions on Information Science and Applications, 6, 417–426. Chang, H. Y. (2009). Employee turnover: A novel prediction solution with effective feature selection. WSEAS Transactions on Information Science and Applications, 6, 417–426.
Zurück zum Zitat Chung, J., Gulcehre, C., Cho, K., & Bengio, Y. (2014). Empirical evaluation of gated recurrent neural networks on sequence modeling. Neural Information Processing Systems 2014 Deep Learning and Representation Learning Workshop. Chung, J., Gulcehre, C., Cho, K., & Bengio, Y. (2014). Empirical evaluation of gated recurrent neural networks on sequence modeling. Neural Information Processing Systems 2014 Deep Learning and Representation Learning Workshop.
Zurück zum Zitat Dalton, D. R., & Todor, W. D. (1979). Turnover turned over: An expanded and positive perspective. Academy of Management Review, 4, 225–235.CrossRef Dalton, D. R., & Todor, W. D. (1979). Turnover turned over: An expanded and positive perspective. Academy of Management Review, 4, 225–235.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Freeman, L. C. (1978). Centrality in social networks conceptual clarification. Social Networks, 3, 215–239.CrossRef Freeman, L. C. (1978). Centrality in social networks conceptual clarification. Social Networks, 3, 215–239.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Graves, A., Mohamed, A., & Hinton, G. (2013). Speech recognition with deep recurrent neural networks. In 2013 IEEE international conference on acoustics, speech and signal processing (pp. 6645–6649). IEEE Graves, A., Mohamed, A., & Hinton, G. (2013). Speech recognition with deep recurrent neural networks. In 2013 IEEE international conference on acoustics, speech and signal processing (pp. 6645–6649). IEEE
Zurück zum Zitat Hom, P. W., Lee, T. W., Shaw, J. D., & Hausknecht, J. P. (2017). One hundred years of employee turnover theory and research. The Journal of Applied Psychology, 102, 530.CrossRef Hom, P. W., Lee, T. W., Shaw, J. D., & Hausknecht, J. P. (2017). One hundred years of employee turnover theory and research. The Journal of Applied Psychology, 102, 530.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hong, W. C., Pai, P. F., Huang, Y. Y., & Yang, S. L. (2005). Application of support vector machines in predicting employee turnover based on job performance. Advanced Natural Computation, LNCS, 3610, 668–674.CrossRef Hong, W. C., Pai, P. F., Huang, Y. Y., & Yang, S. L. (2005). Application of support vector machines in predicting employee turnover based on job performance. Advanced Natural Computation, LNCS, 3610, 668–674.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Krizhevsky, A., Sutskever, I., & Hinton, G. (2012). ImageNet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 25, 1097–1105. Krizhevsky, A., Sutskever, I., & Hinton, G. (2012). ImageNet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 25, 1097–1105.
Zurück zum Zitat March, J. G., & Simon, H. A. (1958). Organizations. Cambridge, MA: Wiley-Blackwell. March, J. G., & Simon, H. A. (1958). Organizations. Cambridge, MA: Wiley-Blackwell.
Zurück zum Zitat Mobley, W. H. (1982). Some unanswered questions in turnover and withdrawal research. Academy of Management Review, 7, 111–116.CrossRef Mobley, W. H. (1982). Some unanswered questions in turnover and withdrawal research. Academy of Management Review, 7, 111–116.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Nagadevara, V., Srinivasan, V., & Valk, R. (2008). Establishing a link between employee turnover and withdrawal behaviours: Application of data mining techniques. Research and Practice in Human Resource Management, 16, 1–27. Nagadevara, V., Srinivasan, V., & Valk, R. (2008). Establishing a link between employee turnover and withdrawal behaviours: Application of data mining techniques. Research and Practice in Human Resource Management, 16, 1–27.
Zurück zum Zitat Punnoose, R., & Ajit, P. (2016). Prediction of employee turnover in organizations using machine learning algorithms. International Journal of Advanced Research in Artificial Intelligence, 9, 22–26. Punnoose, R., & Ajit, P. (2016). Prediction of employee turnover in organizations using machine learning algorithms. International Journal of Advanced Research in Artificial Intelligence, 9, 22–26.
Zurück zum Zitat Quinn, A., Rycraft, J. R., & Schoech, D. (2002). Building a model to predict caseworker and supervisor turnover using a neural network and logistic regression. Journal of Technology in Human Services, 19, 65–85.CrossRef Quinn, A., Rycraft, J. R., & Schoech, D. (2002). Building a model to predict caseworker and supervisor turnover using a neural network and logistic regression. Journal of Technology in Human Services, 19, 65–85.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Ribes, E., Touahri, K. & Perthame, B. (2017). Employee turnover prediction and retention policies design: A case study. arXiv preprint:1707.01377. Ribes, E., Touahri, K. & Perthame, B. (2017). Employee turnover prediction and retention policies design: A case study. arXiv preprint:1707.01377.
Zurück zum Zitat Sexton, R. S., McMurtrey, S., Michalopoulos, J. O., & Smith, A. M. (2005). Employee turnover: A neural network solution. Computers and Operations Research, 32, 2635–2651.CrossRef Sexton, R. S., McMurtrey, S., Michalopoulos, J. O., & Smith, A. M. (2005). Employee turnover: A neural network solution. Computers and Operations Research, 32, 2635–2651.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Sikaroudi, A. M. E., Ghousi, R., & Sikaroudi, A. E. (2015). A data mining approach to employee turnover prediction (Case study: Arak automotive parts manufacturing). Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 8, 106–121. Sikaroudi, A. M. E., Ghousi, R., & Sikaroudi, A. E. (2015). A data mining approach to employee turnover prediction (Case study: Arak automotive parts manufacturing). Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 8, 106–121.
Zurück zum Zitat Somers, M. J. (1999). Application of two neural network paradigms to the study of voluntary employee turnover. Journal of Applied Psychology, 84(2), 177.CrossRef Somers, M. J. (1999). Application of two neural network paradigms to the study of voluntary employee turnover. Journal of Applied Psychology, 84(2), 177.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Suceendran, K. M., Saravanan, R., Ananthram, D., Poonkuzhali, S., Kumar, R. K., & Sarukesi, K. (2015). Applying classifier algorithms to organizational memory to build an attrition predictor model. Suceendran, K. M., Saravanan, R., Ananthram, D., Poonkuzhali, S., Kumar, R. K., & Sarukesi, K. (2015). Applying classifier algorithms to organizational memory to build an attrition predictor model.
Zurück zum Zitat Szegedy, C., Toshev, A., & Erhan, D. (2013). Deep neural networks for object detection. In Neural information processing systems conference (pp. 2553–2561). Szegedy, C., Toshev, A., & Erhan, D. (2013). Deep neural networks for object detection. In Neural information processing systems conference (pp. 2553–2561).
Zurück zum Zitat Tzeng, H. M., Hsieh, J. G., & Lin, Y. L. (2004). Predicting nurses’ intention to quit with a support vector machine: A new approach to set up an early warning mechanism in human resource management. Computers, Informatics, Nursing, 22, 232–242.CrossRef Tzeng, H. M., Hsieh, J. G., & Lin, Y. L. (2004). Predicting nurses’ intention to quit with a support vector machine: A new approach to set up an early warning mechanism in human resource management. Computers, Informatics, Nursing, 22, 232–242.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Zhao, Y., Hryniewicki, M. K., Cheng, F., Fu, B., & Zhu, X. (2018). Employee turnover prediction with machine learning: A reliable approach. In Proceedings of SAI intelligent systems conference (pp. 737–758). Cham: Springer. Zhao, Y., Hryniewicki, M. K., Cheng, F., Fu, B., & Zhu, X. (2018). Employee turnover prediction with machine learning: A reliable approach. In Proceedings of SAI intelligent systems conference (pp. 737–758). Cham: Springer.
Metadaten
Titel
Mirror, Mirror on the Wall, Who Is Leaving of Them All: Predictions for Employee Turnover with Gated Recurrent Neural Networks
verfasst von
Joao Marcos de Oliveira
Matthäus P. Zylka
Peter A. Gloor
Tushar Joshi
Copyright-Jahr
2019
Verlag
Springer International Publishing
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-17238-1_2

Premium Partner