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2022 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

6. Case 1: The Automobile

verfasst von : Olivier L. de Weck

Erschienen in: Technology Roadmapping and Development

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This chapter is a first in-depth case study and it presents the creation and evolution of the automobile as an example of how technology progresses over time. We explore the roots of the automobile as a means of personal transportation in the late nineteenth century and the Ford Model T, which ushered in the age of mass production. We then survey the technological innovations infused in the automobile in the twentieth century and look at the key figures of merit and efforts made to mitigate undesired side effects such as congestion, emissions, as well as car accidents. There is evidence that the automobile has entered a new age of architectural competition among the internal combustion engine, electric vehicles, and hybrids. The future of the automobile is not only tied to technological innovations such as increased levels of autonomy (self-driving cars) but also the evolution of regulations, urban design, as well as cultural norms and expectations. New business models such as ride-sharing services are likely to have a deep impact on the future of the automobile. The key takeaway from this chapter is that one cannot analyze technology – or create a roadmap for it – unless one is willing to also understand its socio-technical context at a societal level.

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Vorheriges Kapitel Patents and Intellectual Property

Nächstes Kapitel Technological Diffusion and Disruption

This is the same world’s fair in 1889 for which the Eiffel Tower was constructed.

It is interesting to see the parallels between Carl Benz’s embrace of bicycles and that of the Wright Brothers in Ohio about a decade later. The design and manufacturing of bicycles required lightweight materials and precision metal manufacturing, two capabilities that became essential for both early automobile and aircraft design, see also Chap. 9.

One of the recommendations of Bertha after her first long distance drive was the addition of a third gear in order to facilitate the climbing of hills.

One of the factors that favored the adoption of the automobile was hygiene. Cars avoided the issue of having to remove horse manure from city roads. This had been a problem in many cities during the age of horse-drawn carriages, including San Francisco with its hills and steep roads.

This section is adapted from de Weck, Roos and Magee (2011), Ch. 1 “From Invention to Systems.”

Chap. 7 discusses the phenomena of technology adoption and disruption over time.

Some of these specifications of the Ford Model T changed over time from 1908 to 1927.

The learning curve equation predicts the drop in cost as production volume is doubled as follows: Y_x = Y_o xⁿ, whereby Y_o is the first unit cost and the exponent n = log(b)/log(2) determines the cost Y_x of the x-th production unit (serial number) on the line. The decrease in cost of the Ford Model T from 1908 to 1915 as production went from 10,000 units to 500,000 units per year was approximately $500 per unit. This corresponds to a learning curve factor b = 0.95, meaning that with every doubling of the production volume, the cost of a single unit dropped to 95% of its prior value. This trend did not continue after the volume peaked at two million units in 1923.

This is an oversimplification of reality as the Ford Model T and its different variants were available in other colors as well depending on the specific production year, such as green, red, and blue, as well as gray for the town car variant. It is said that black was the best paint for mass manufacturing because it would dry the fastest.

Taylorism is known as a specific way to organize and rationalize manufacturing based on a series of techniques such as time-motion studies, to find the best way to allocate tasks to individual production workers. Taylorism initially had an enormous positive impact on large-scale manufacturing through the introduction of division of labor and specialization. However, it also generated some negative side effects such as an increased distance between management and workers. Other downsides coming from the monotony of doing the same work day in and day out were physical problems such as repetitive stress injuries as well as a sense of disempowerment by workers on the production floor.

Source: John W. Cowart, “Jacksonville’s Motorcar History,” at http://www.cowart.info/Florida%20History/Auto%20History/Auto%20History.htm; URL accessed August 24, 2020.

The statistics on car safety worldwide show dramatic differences between developed and developing countries such as in the United States, Western Europe, India, Africa, and so forth. It is important to note that this is generally due to differences in the quality of the roads, driver behaviors, rigor of the traffic laws and enforcement, and not primarily vehicle design. This is potentially one of the reasons why the widespread introduction of autonomous vehicles might lead to significantly fewer accidents over time, by taking control away from or by augmenting the often (but not always) “unreliable” human drivers. Examples of driver augmentation are rear view cameras, lane crossing warning devices, and nod-off alerting systems.

It must be acknowledged that the level of vigor with which the EPA enforces air quality standards varies from administration to administration.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_average_fuel_economy, URL accessed on Aug 24, 2020.

Rong, Blake Z, “Popular Mechanics”, “10 Innovations that made the modern car”, Dec 4, 2018, https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/car-technology/a25130393/innovations-modern-cars/

We have already mentioned emissions, fuel economy, and crashworthiness standards, which are often tested and certified using standardized drive cycles such as FTP-75

This example shows that hybrid electric vehicles have significant complexity, and that software that determines when certain parts of the system turn on and off is becoming an increasingly important part of the design.

The automotive industry is investing heavily in MBSE (model-based systems engineering) and digital models, and mockups are increasingly replacing physical models that have been used for many decades during the design phase in the past (e.g., made from clay or wood).

We will discuss the difference among incremental sustaining, incremental radical, and disruptive innovations in the following Chap. 7.

Tesla is beta-testing this function with early customers: https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/30/20891343/tesla-smart-summon-feature-videos-parking-accidents

With all its positive and negative side effects to society, such as urban sprawl.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/lack-of-drive_why-young-people-are-falling-out-of-love-with-cars/43024836

Alizon, Fabrice, Steven B. Shooter, and Timothy W. Simpson. "Henry Ford and the Model T: lessons for product platforming and mass customization." Design Studies 30, no. 5 (2009): 588-605.CrossRef

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Chossière GP, Malina R, Ashok A, Dedoussi IC, Eastham SD, Speth RL, Barrett SR. Public health impacts of excess NOx emissions from Volkswagen diesel passenger vehicles in Germany. Environmental Research Letters 2017 Mar 3;12(3):034014.

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Collin A, Siddiqi A, Imanishi Y, Rebentisch E, Tanimichi T, de Weck OL. Autonomous driving systems hardware and software architecture exploration: optimizing latency and cost under safety constraints. Systems Engineering. 2020 May; 23(3):327–37.

Davies RG, Magee CL. Physical metallurgy of automotive high-strength steels. JOM. 1979 Nov 1;31(11):17–23.

de Weck, Olivier L., Daniel Roos, and Christopher L. Magee. Engineering Systems: Meeting human needs in a complex technological world. MIT Press, 2011.

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Gorbea C., Fricke E., “The Design of Future Cars in a new age of architectural competition,” paper DETC2008/DTM-49722, Proceedings of the ASME 2008 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2008, August 3–6, 2008, Brooklyn, New York, USA

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Titel: Case 1: The Automobile
verfasst von: Olivier L. de Weck
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: Technology Roadmapping and Development
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-88345-4

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-88346-1

Copyright-Jahr: 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-88346-1_6

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