The Passengers’ Turnout Simulation for the Urban Transport System Control Decision-Making Process

The report deals with the problems of the small city passengers’ municipal transport system simulation. The particular purpose of the report concerns to the mathematical model of the passengers’ turnout elaboration. The proposed stochastic model of passengers’ arrivals at the stops of the transport net as well as the model of the passengers’ transition between the stops is applicable to the passengers’ turnout simulation for the decision-making on the municipal transport system efficiency raise. The results of the long-term observations of the real transport system operation and the urban transport passengers flow big data cognitive processing have applied for the model parameters identification and adequacy checkup. The model has the form of tabular probability distribution function depending on the passengers’ start and destination stops names, the type of the weekday, the number of time interval within the day, and the passengers’ social group belonging. The model testing shows the high correlation of the simulated passengers’ flow with the real observations results. The confidence level of the accordance between the simulated data probability distribution and the experimental data empiric probability distribution is moderate. In spite of it, the presented model is applicable for the passengers’ turnout simulation.