Route Choice Making Under Uncertainty: a Fuzzy Logic Based Approach

This paper deals with the representation of uncertainty in the drivers’ route choice process. The objective is not to find the best route, but rather to model the way drivers actually choose, without knowing perfectly the traveling conditions.We propose two different models based on fuzzy sets in order to represent this lack of knowledge, but also the non-willingness of drivers of an exact optimization.The first one is based on the comparison of fuzzy generalized costs gathering both imprecision and uncertainty and it is proved to have inconsistencies, so that it is not suitable for uncertainty representation.The second one is based on an individual behaviour which is justified by decision theoretic arguments. It enables to represent the effect of uncertainty on individual choices as well as the complexity of the interactions between those choices when they are made simultaneously on a road.