Multiplicative SARIMA models

In the history of economics, the analysis of economic fluctuations can reclaim a prominent part. Undoubtedly, the analysis of business cycle movements plays the dominant role in this field, but there are also different perspectives to look at the ups and downs of economic time series. Economic fluctuations are usually characterized with regard to their periodic recurrence. Variations that last several years and occur in more or less regular time intervals are called business cycles, whereas seasonality (originally) indicates regularly recurring fluctuations within a year, that appear due to the season. Such seasonal patterns can be observed for many macroeconomic time series like gross domestic product, unemployment, industrial production or construction.