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Empirical Economics

Erschienen in:

01.03.2014

Do money and financial variables help forecasting output in emerging European Economies?

verfasst von: Petre Caraiani

Erschienen in: Empirical Economics | Ausgabe 2/2014

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Abstract

Whether including monetary aggregates and different financial variables into small scale BVAR models improves the accuracy of output forecasts is tested for three emerging European economies. Various specifications for the priors of the BVAR models are used. The results are found to vary with respect to prior specification, variables, as well as prediction horizon. The evidence is stronger when the forecasting accuracy is compared based on log predictive likelihood but weaker when the RMSEs are used. These results may constitute evidence against dismissing the monetary aggregates or financial variables as completely irrelevant.

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Titel: Do money and financial variables help forecasting output in emerging European Economies?
verfasst von: Petre Caraiani
Publikationsdatum: 01.03.2014
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erschienen in: Empirical Economics / Ausgabe 2/2014
Print ISSN: 0377-7332
Elektronische ISSN: 1435-8921
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-013-0686-5

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