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23.01.2016 | Original Paper

Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach

verfasst von: Barbara Entwisle, Nathalie E. Williams, Ashton M. Verdery, Ronald R. Rindfuss, Stephen J. Walsh, George P. Malanson, Peter J. Mucha, Brian G. Frizzelle, Philip M. McDaniel, Xiaozheng Yao, Benjamin W. Heumann, Pramote Prasartkul, Yothin Sawangdee, Aree Jampaklay

Erschienen in: Population and Environment | Ausgabe 1/2016

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Abstract

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.

Vorheriger Artikel Land use as a mediating factor of fertility in the Amazon

Nächster Artikel Climate shocks and the timing of migration from Mexico

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We also tested a scenario with the actual recorded weather conditions from 1975 to 2000. Results from this scenario are substantively equivalent to those for the reference scenario and are not presented in this article.

http://www.thairiceexporters.or.th.

Local prices of rice, cassava, and sugar are all affected by national and international markets. Thus, we assume that any weather shocks that could influence local production of these crops will not influence local prices.

This is the most common age range of migration in Nang Rong. In the 1994 Nang Rong Household survey, only one individual below the age of 10 was classified as a migrant and about 26 % of all migrants were above the age of 29, a negligible fraction of whom returned by the time of the 2000 survey.

Equation 2 shows the equation for those aged 10–19 only. A separate equation (with the same variables but different coefficients) is used for those aged 20–29.

These variables include: village connectivity, household centrality, ties to wealthy households, kinship dependency ratio, ties to current migrants, and the interaction between village migration prevalence and village connectivity.

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Titel: Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach
verfasst von: Barbara Entwisle
Nathalie E. Williams
Ashton M. Verdery
Ronald R. Rindfuss
Stephen J. Walsh
George P. Malanson
Peter J. Mucha
Brian G. Frizzelle
Philip M. McDaniel
Xiaozheng Yao
Benjamin W. Heumann
Pramote Prasartkul
Yothin Sawangdee
Aree Jampaklay
Publikationsdatum: 23.01.2016
Verlag: Springer Netherlands
Erschienen in: Population and Environment / Ausgabe 1/2016
Print ISSN: 0199-0039
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-7810
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y

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