Skip to main content
Erschienen in: Public Choice 3-4/2017

29.05.2017

Lobbying, political connections and emergency lending by the Federal Reserve

verfasst von: Benjamin M. Blau

Erschienen in: Public Choice | Ausgabe 3-4/2017

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

This paper tests whether the political connections of banks were important in explaining participation in the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending programs during the recent financial crisis. Our multivariate tests show that banks that were politically connected—either through lobbying efforts or employment of politically connected individuals—were substantially more likely to participate in the Federal Reserve’s emergency loan programs. In economic terms, participation in these programs was 28–36% more likely for banks that were politically connected than for banks that were not politically connected. In our final set of tests, we attempt to identify a proper explanation for this peculiar relationship. While a broad literature speaks of the moral hazard associated with receiving bailouts, we test whether another type of moral hazard exists in the period preceding the bailout. In particular, we argue that, to the extent that political connections act as synthetic insurance, banks may have engaged in more risky behavior that lead them to the Fed’s emergency lending facilities. Tests seem to confirm this explanation.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Fußnoten
1
As mentioned above, O’Hara and Shaw (1990), among others, suggest that “Too-Big-To-Fail” banks are likely the largest banks. However, we recognize the possibility that market capitalization and assets might not fully capture banks deemed TBTF.
 
2
Several studies (including Berger and Udell 1995; Degryse and Van Cayseele 2000; Boot 2000; Elsas 2005) find evidence that lenders are more likely to provide loans to firms or individuals with whom they have a business relationship.
 
3
While the Fed did announce eligibility requirements for participation, most loans were provided through an auction process, which provided a way for institutions to purchase loanable funds in an open market. In the first auction, the Fed reported that the total dollar volume of bids was three times the total amount of dollar volume actually borrowed, suggesting an unusual institutional demand for these emergency loans (https://​www.​stlouisfed.​org/​publications/​re/​articles/​?​id=​2062).
 
4
La Porta et al. (2003) find that while earlier research suggests that relations between banks and borrowers can increase credit efficiency, much higher default rates exist in related lending than in unrelated lending. They argue for the existence of a new type of moral hazard, such that loans between borrowers and lenders that have strong relationships might be riskier, ceteris paribus, because borrowers engage in riskier activity. In particular, they show that before the 1995 credit crisis in Mexico, “well-connected” Mexican banks engaged in riskier lending that presumably contributed to the severity of the crisis.
 
5
The full report of the GAO audit is located at http://​www.​gao.​gov/​new.​items/​d11696.​pdf.
 
6
For instance, the GAO report suggests that lending from the MMMF was negligible. TALF lending comprised of $71.1 billion. The GAO reports lending totals for TAF, TSLF, PDCF and CPFF of $3818 billion, $2319 billion, $7389 billion and $738 billion, respectively. Lending from the DSL was indeed the highest: $10,057 billion; however, this facility interacted with 10 foreign central banks.
 
7
We recognize an important piece of data missing from our tests. While many of the emergency lending programs were conducted by auctions, we do not observe the outcome of the application process. It is possible that many of the application bids were rejected, which will no doubt affect the conclusions we are trying to draw. Given that those data are unavailable, we are left to assume that the distribution of banks that applied for emergency assistance was similar to the distribution of banks that eventually received emergency assistance. This assumption certainly raises some caution about the strength of the conclusions that we are able to draw.
 
8
As a measure of robustness, we use balance sheet and income statement information from the quarter before the loan was received. Results from these unreported tests are qualitatively similar to those reported in this study.
 
9
As mentioned in Sect. 2, the variable LobbyAmt is the amount of lobbying expenditures to the nearest $20,000. However, firms that spent close to $10,000 in lobbying were not required to disclose their expenditures. Therefore, any inferences we make regarding the amounts of lobbying must be made with caution given that some firms may have undisclosed lobbying expenditures. In the tests that follow, we focus only on our two indicator variables owing to this potential bias.
 
10
We do not enter both LOBBY and EMPLOY in the same regression because of severe multicollinearity issues. Said differently, both of these indicator variables are highly correlated, thus affecting our ability to infer the significances of the coefficients. The variance inflation factors for LOBBY and EMPLOY, when including both indicator variables in the same regression, are well above 10.
 
11
While there is not a specific test-statistic determining a critical value for variance inflation factors, the idea is that standard errors might be inflated by the square root of the variance inflation factor. Therefore, for a variance inflation factor of 10, standard errors might be 3.16 times the given standard error.
 
12
A natural extension of these tests is to determine whether lobbying is a more important determinant in the receipt of emergency loans than bank size. In unreported tests, we scale the amount of lobbying (as reported by the CPR) by the total assets of the bank. We repeat that the CPR data about the amount of lobbying is a crude measure. That is, some banks that may have spent slightly less than $10,000 on lobbying in a particular year would have not been included in the dataset. Further, the lobbying amounts reported by the CPR are in $10,000 increments, so the lobbying amount variable does not contain the exact amount of lobbying expenditures. Therefore, we exercise caution when making inferences regarding these unreported tests. Nevertheless, the results show that the estimate for the ratio of lobbying expenditures relative to the total assets produces a coefficient that is statistically close to zero, suggesting that the amount of lobbying expenditures and total bank assets are equally important factors in explaining the likelihood of receiving emergency support.
 
13
Chi-squared statistics are large enough to reject the null hypothesis of no heteroscedasticity. Therefore, we use White’s (1980) method for robust standard errors.
 
14
Recall that all bank observations are included in the analysis. Therefore, many of the banks did not receive emergency loans from the Fed and therefore, they have a dependent variable that is equal to zero.
 
15
Of the banks included in this analysis, five banks are on the Financial Stability Board’s list of TBTF banks. These banks are the Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, State Street, and Wells Fargo.
 
16
To measure market-based measures of risk, we used daily returns to estimate a Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and obtained the level of systematic risk (beta) for each bank. From the residuals of the CAPM, we calculate the standard deviation to obtain a measure of idiosyncratic risk. We then entered those two measures of risk as additional control variables in our multivariate tests.
 
17
While we do not report the results in this version of the paper, these unreported tests (and those that follow) are available from the authors by request.
 
18
McKay (2011) describes the difference between lobbying a bureaucracy rather than lobbying a legislature. While the lobbying of Federal Reserve is unusual, the argument for why banks might choose to allocate lobbying resources there is nicely laid out in McKay (2011).
 
19
While the tests in Table 7, as well as the process through which lending from various facilities was initiated, question the possibility that favoritism may have been involved, we recognize that the Fed is not immune to providing political favors through other indirect channels. However, determining these channels is difficult given that the motives behind monetary policies are unobserved.
 
20
We recognize that in prior research, some studies treat debt levels as a measure of riskiness. In unreported tests, we exclude the level of liabilities from the specification in Eq. (4) and find results that are very similar to those reported in this study.
 
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Adams, R. B. (2012). Governance and the financial crisis. International Review of Finance, 12, 7–38.CrossRef Adams, R. B. (2012). Governance and the financial crisis. International Review of Finance, 12, 7–38.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Aghion, P., Boulton, P., & Fries, S. (1999). Optimal design of bank bailouts: The case of transition economies. Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, 155, 51–76. Aghion, P., Boulton, P., & Fries, S. (1999). Optimal design of bank bailouts: The case of transition economies. Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, 155, 51–76.
Zurück zum Zitat Alger, I., & Ma, A. (2003). Moral hazard, insurance, and some collusion. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 50, 225–247.CrossRef Alger, I., & Ma, A. (2003). Moral hazard, insurance, and some collusion. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 50, 225–247.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Altonji, J. G., Elder, T. E., & Taber, C. R. (2005). Selection on observed and unobserved variables: Assessing the effectiveness of catholic schools. Journal of Political Economy, 113, 151–184.CrossRef Altonji, J. G., Elder, T. E., & Taber, C. R. (2005). Selection on observed and unobserved variables: Assessing the effectiveness of catholic schools. Journal of Political Economy, 113, 151–184.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Berger, A. N., & Udell, G. F. (1995). Relationship lending and lines of credit in small firm finance. Journal of Business, 68, 351–381.CrossRef Berger, A. N., & Udell, G. F. (1995). Relationship lending and lines of credit in small firm finance. Journal of Business, 68, 351–381.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Blau, B. M., Brough, T. J., & Thomas, D. W. (2013). Corporate lobbying, political connections, and the bailout of banks. Journal of Banking and Finance, 37, 3007–3017.CrossRef Blau, B. M., Brough, T. J., & Thomas, D. W. (2013). Corporate lobbying, political connections, and the bailout of banks. Journal of Banking and Finance, 37, 3007–3017.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Boot, A. W. A. (2000). Relationship banking: What do we know? Journal of Financial Intermediation, 9, 7–25.CrossRef Boot, A. W. A. (2000). Relationship banking: What do we know? Journal of Financial Intermediation, 9, 7–25.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Chiu, M. M., & Joh, S. W. (2004). Loans to distressed firms: Political connections, related lending, and business group affiliations, and bank governance, Working Paper, Chinese University of Hong Kong. Chiu, M. M., & Joh, S. W. (2004). Loans to distressed firms: Political connections, related lending, and business group affiliations, and bank governance, Working Paper, Chinese University of Hong Kong.
Zurück zum Zitat Cull, R., & Xu, L. C. (2005). Institutions, ownership, and finance: The determinants of profit reinvestment among Chinese firms. Journal of Financial Economics, 58, 81–112. Cull, R., & Xu, L. C. (2005). Institutions, ownership, and finance: The determinants of profit reinvestment among Chinese firms. Journal of Financial Economics, 58, 81–112.
Zurück zum Zitat Degryse, H., & Van Cayseele, P. (2000). Relationship lending within a bank-based system: Evidence from European small business data. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 9, 90–109.CrossRef Degryse, H., & Van Cayseele, P. (2000). Relationship lending within a bank-based system: Evidence from European small business data. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 9, 90–109.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. New York: Harper and Brothers. Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. New York: Harper and Brothers.
Zurück zum Zitat Duchin, R., & Sosyura, D. (2012). The politics of government intervention. Journal of Financial Economics, 106, 24–48.CrossRef Duchin, R., & Sosyura, D. (2012). The politics of government intervention. Journal of Financial Economics, 106, 24–48.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Elsas, R. (2005). Empirical determinants of relationship lending. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 14, 32–57.CrossRef Elsas, R. (2005). Empirical determinants of relationship lending. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 14, 32–57.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Faccio, M. (2006). Politically connected firms. American Economic Review, 96, 369–386.CrossRef Faccio, M. (2006). Politically connected firms. American Economic Review, 96, 369–386.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Faccio, M., Masulis, R. W., & McConnell, J. J. (2006). Political connections and corporate bailouts. Journal of Finance, 61, 2597–2635.CrossRef Faccio, M., Masulis, R. W., & McConnell, J. J. (2006). Political connections and corporate bailouts. Journal of Finance, 61, 2597–2635.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Fisman, R. (2001). Estimating the value of political connections. American Economic Review, 91, 1095–1102.CrossRef Fisman, R. (2001). Estimating the value of political connections. American Economic Review, 91, 1095–1102.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Freixas, X. (1999). Optimal bailout policy, conditionality, and constructive ambiguity. Working paper, Univeritat Pompeu Fabra. Freixas, X. (1999). Optimal bailout policy, conditionality, and constructive ambiguity. Working paper, Univeritat Pompeu Fabra.
Zurück zum Zitat Goodhart, C., & Huang, H. (1999). A model of lender of last resort. IMF Working Paper. Goodhart, C., & Huang, H. (1999). A model of lender of last resort. IMF Working Paper.
Zurück zum Zitat Hochberg, Y., Sapienza, Y., & Vissing-Jorgensen, A. (2009). A lobbying approach to evaluating the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Journal of Accounting Research, 47, 519–583.CrossRef Hochberg, Y., Sapienza, Y., & Vissing-Jorgensen, A. (2009). A lobbying approach to evaluating the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Journal of Accounting Research, 47, 519–583.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Igan, D., Mishra, P., & Tressel, T. (2011). A fistful of dollars: Lobbying and the financial crisis. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 26, 195–230.CrossRef Igan, D., Mishra, P., & Tressel, T. (2011). A fistful of dollars: Lobbying and the financial crisis. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 26, 195–230.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Johnson, S., & Mitton, T. (2003). Cronyism and capital controls: Evidence from malaysia. Journal of Financial Economics, 67, 357–382.CrossRef Johnson, S., & Mitton, T. (2003). Cronyism and capital controls: Evidence from malaysia. Journal of Financial Economics, 67, 357–382.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Khwaja, A. I., & Mian, A. (2005). Do lenders favor politically connected firms? Rent provision in an emerging financial market. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120, 1391–1411.CrossRef Khwaja, A. I., & Mian, A. (2005). Do lenders favor politically connected firms? Rent provision in an emerging financial market. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120, 1391–1411.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Kostovetsky, L. (2009). Political capital and moral hazard. Working Paper, University of Rochester. Kostovetsky, L. (2009). Political capital and moral hazard. Working Paper, University of Rochester.
Zurück zum Zitat La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., & Zamarippa, G. (2003). Related lending. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 231–268.CrossRef La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., & Zamarippa, G. (2003). Related lending. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 231–268.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Li, Y. (2003). The Asian financial crisis and non-performing loans: Evidence from commercial banks in Taiwan. International Journal of Management, 20, 69–74. Li, Y. (2003). The Asian financial crisis and non-performing loans: Evidence from commercial banks in Taiwan. International Journal of Management, 20, 69–74.
Zurück zum Zitat Mailath, G. J., & Mester, L. J. (1994). A positive analysis of bank closure. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 3, 272–299.CrossRef Mailath, G. J., & Mester, L. J. (1994). A positive analysis of bank closure. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 3, 272–299.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat McKay, A. M. (2011). The decision to lobby bureaucrats. Public Choice, 147, 123–138.CrossRef McKay, A. M. (2011). The decision to lobby bureaucrats. Public Choice, 147, 123–138.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Morck, R. K., Stangeland, D. A., & Yeung, B. (2000). Inherited wealth, corporate control, and economic growth: The Canadian disease. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Morck, R. K., Stangeland, D. A., & Yeung, B. (2000). Inherited wealth, corporate control, and economic growth: The Canadian disease. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Zurück zum Zitat O’Hara, M., & Shaw, W. (1990). Deposit insurance and wealth effects: The value of being “Too Big to Fail”. Journal of Finance, 45, 1578–1600. O’Hara, M., & Shaw, W. (1990). Deposit insurance and wealth effects: The value of being “Too Big to Fail”. Journal of Finance, 45, 1578–1600.
Zurück zum Zitat Pauly, M. V. (1968). The economics of moral hazard: Comment. American Economic Review, 58, 531–537. Pauly, M. V. (1968). The economics of moral hazard: Comment. American Economic Review, 58, 531–537.
Zurück zum Zitat Pauly, M. V. (1974). Overinsurance and public provision of insurance. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87, 44–62.CrossRef Pauly, M. V. (1974). Overinsurance and public provision of insurance. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87, 44–62.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Peltzman, S. (1976). Toward a more general theory of regulation. Journal of Law and Economics, 19, 211–240.CrossRef Peltzman, S. (1976). Toward a more general theory of regulation. Journal of Law and Economics, 19, 211–240.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Richter, B., Samphantharak, K., & Timmons, J. (2009). Lobbying and taxes. American Journal of Political Science, 53, 893–909.CrossRef Richter, B., Samphantharak, K., & Timmons, J. (2009). Lobbying and taxes. American Journal of Political Science, 53, 893–909.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Roberts, B. E. (1990). A dead senator tells no lies: Seniority and the distribution of federal benefits. American Journal of Political Science, 34, 31–58.CrossRef Roberts, B. E. (1990). A dead senator tells no lies: Seniority and the distribution of federal benefits. American Journal of Political Science, 34, 31–58.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Rubinstein, A., & Yaari, M. E. (1983). Repeated insurance contracts and moral hazard. Journal of Economic Theory, 30, 74–97.CrossRef Rubinstein, A., & Yaari, M. E. (1983). Repeated insurance contracts and moral hazard. Journal of Economic Theory, 30, 74–97.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Saito, K. (2006). Testing for asymmetric information in the automobile insurance market under rate regulation. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 73, 335–356.CrossRef Saito, K. (2006). Testing for asymmetric information in the automobile insurance market under rate regulation. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 73, 335–356.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Shavell, S. (1979). Risk-sharing and incentives, in the principal and agent relationship. Bell Journal of Economics, 10, 55–73.CrossRef Shavell, S. (1979). Risk-sharing and incentives, in the principal and agent relationship. Bell Journal of Economics, 10, 55–73.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1994). Politicians and firms. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109, 995–1025.CrossRef Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1994). Politicians and firms. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109, 995–1025.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Stigler, G. J. (1971). The theory of economic regulation. The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 2, 3–21.CrossRef Stigler, G. J. (1971). The theory of economic regulation. The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 2, 3–21.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat White, H. (1980). A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48, 817–838.CrossRef White, H. (1980). A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48, 817–838.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Yu, F., & Yu, X. (2010). Corporate lobbying and fraud protection. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 46, 1865–1891.CrossRef Yu, F., & Yu, X. (2010). Corporate lobbying and fraud protection. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 46, 1865–1891.CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Lobbying, political connections and emergency lending by the Federal Reserve
verfasst von
Benjamin M. Blau
Publikationsdatum
29.05.2017
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Public Choice / Ausgabe 3-4/2017
Print ISSN: 0048-5829
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-7101
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-017-0446-8

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 3-4/2017

Public Choice 3-4/2017 Zur Ausgabe

Premium Partner