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Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting

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01.02.2016 | Original Research

Cash flow volatility and corporate bond yield spreads

verfasst von: Alan V. S. Douglas, Alan G. Huang, Kenneth R. Vetzal

Erschienen in: Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting | Ausgabe 2/2016

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Abstract

We conduct a detailed empirical study of the effects of cash flow volatility on corporate bond yield spreads. We use both forward-looking and historical cash flow volatility measures. Using a large sample of transaction prices for investment grade straight bonds, we show that cash flow risk has strong statistical significance and economic effects on spreads, after controlling for a battery of factors which are known to be important determinants of spreads. The effects of cash flow risk are more pronounced for firms that are at greater risk of default, and when cash flow risk is measured based on more recent information. Our results provide empirical support to structural models of bond pricing and emphasize the effect of fundamentals-related information uncertainty on bond prices.

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The Fitch rating report is available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/18/fitch-affirms-wyndhams-idr-at-bbb-outloo-idUSFit69088320140218.

A commonly employed proxy for asset volatility is equity return volatility (e.g. Campbell and Taksler 2003; Eom et al. 2004). While equity volatility provides a useful proxy, it may not fully capture asset volatility since, fundamentally, asset values reflect discounted cash flows to the firm as opposed to cash flows to equity.

Formal treatments of the relationship between cash flow volatility and asset return volatility can be found in Goldstein and Zapatero (1996) and Goldstein et al. (2001), and Chapter 11 of Duffie (2001). Under common assumptions, the proportional volatility parameters for asset returns and cash flows are identical.

Some researchers (e.g. Tang and Yan 2010) argue that CDS spreads are a more direct measure of credit risk than corporate bond yield spreads since they are less prone to liquidity and tax effects. However, Nashikkar et al. (2011) provide evidence that CDS spreads do not fully capture credit risk, owing to frictions in arbitrage between CDS and bond markets. Moreover, CDS spreads may also reflect counterparty default risk. In our paper, we focus on corporate bond yield spreads.

An alternative would be to use the Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE) data; see, for example, Dick-Nielsen (2009) and Dick-Nielsen et al. (2012). This has the advantage of including all transactions, not just those by insurers. However, TRACE data only started being collected in 2002, with full coverage from 2005. This would leave us with very few quarterly observations, making it difficult to identify different economic regimes or to obtain a time series of standard deviations to characterize time-varying volatilities.

For more details about the FISD and NAIC databases, see Campbell and Taksler (2003).

Merging between FISD and Compustat is not straightforward. The difficulty is that a unique correspondence in firm identifiers between FISD and Compustat is not provided. We carefully address this issue in two steps. We first find all possible matches between these two datasets by an issuer’s CUSIP number. One of the known problems for CUSIP numbers is that over time the same CUSIP number may refer to different firms. To address this problem, we manually sort through each entry by checking the company name in FISD against the company name in Compustat and then eliminate those entries whose names do not match.

Some papers that use TRACE data also adopt similar data filtering procedures (e.g., Dick-Nielsen et al. 2012).

Campbell and Taksler (2003) eliminate AAA (or Aaa) rated bonds because the NAIC data for these issues appears to be somewhat problematic for the early years of the sample, with average yields for these bonds exceeding those of lower rated bonds. Non-investment grade bonds are eliminated because insurance companies typically do not hold such bonds. In fact, Ellul et al. (2011) have shown that regulatory constraints on insurance companies can lead to “fire sales” of bonds that have been downgraded below investment grade, with significant effects on bond prices. The restriction to a minimum of 2 years left until maturity is not explicitly discussed by Campbell and Taksler; however, it is implicit in the values reported in Table 1 of their paper.

Our results are robust to using all trades within the month instead of averaging the within-month trades.

Although the truncation seems arbitrary, our results are qualitatively unchanged if the raw data are used, of if we change filter (ii) to $-$20 basis points.

In addition, as shown below in Fig. 1, yield spreads were relatively high throughout 1998–2002. Since Campbell and Taksler’s sample excluded the 2000–2002 period, this is another reason why our mean spreads are somewhat larger than theirs.

The only exception is that BBB rated short-term bonds have higher spreads than BBB rated medium term bonds. This is perhaps due to the issuer quality effect identified by Helwege and Turner (1999): among firms with the same credit rating, riskier firms tend to issue debt with shorter maturity. While Helwege and Turner’s analysis is for non-investment grade issuers, it is possible that this may also happen for relatively low rated investment grade firms.

One possible alternative to the regime-switching approach is to use a GARCH specification. We experimented with replacing our expected cash flow volatility measure with volatility measures based on a GARCH(1,1) model, and found very similar results to those presented here that are based on regime-switching.

Firms began reporting cash flow from operations in fiscal year 1988, as required by the SEC. Allowing for a 1-year adaptation period, we estimate the regime-switching process during fiscal years 1989–2009. We constrain the estimation to firms with at least 40 quarterly cash flow observations to ensure sufficient degrees of freedom in the estimation process.

For each firm, the RCM measure of two-regimes is defined as $400 \times \frac{1}{T} \sum _{t=1}^T p_t (1-p_t)$, where $T$ is the number of observations, and $p_t$ is the smoothed probability of state 1 at time $t$ (see, e.g., Kim 1994). RCM has a value ranging from 0 to 100. A value of 0 indicates perfect regime classification and a value of 100 implies that no information about the regimes is revealed.

For further details, see Kim (1994) and Hamilton (1994).

We restrict our analysis to firms with at least 6 observations in the past 12 quarters in order to calculate the standard deviation of the current quarter. Removing this restriction does not affect the results.

We thank an anonymous referee for suggesting this measure. To minimize the effect of overlapping observations, we only take observations that are 1-year apart. Therefore, each rolling Std(CF/Debt outflow) estimate uses four observations (i.e. observations in quarters 0, $-$4, $-$8, and $-$12).

About 5 % of our sample firms have $\beta$ values falling outside this range.

In contrast, the average AR(1) coefficient for market firm value is 0.91 in our sample. For book assets or book equity, the AR(1) coefficient is even higher. As a further comparison, the AR(1) coefficient of firm cash flows is just 0.17, pointing to the high volatility of cash flows.

For example, Bao et al. (2011) measure liquidity using the autocovariance of relative price changes using TRACE data from 2003 through 2009. In order to calculate this measure, a bond must trade on at least $3/4$ of business days during the sample period for which it is outstanding. By contrast, the mean number of trades per month across all our sample bonds is $<$4.

In our sample, the correlation between the logarithm of bond issue size and the logarithm of the market value of equity is 0.43.

Some models imply that the relationship between spread and maturity is nonlinear. For example, the Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) model predicts a hump-shaped effect of maturity on spread. Including a squared log-years to maturity term in our regressions barely changes the magnitude and significance of our results.

A potential issue with these results is that credit rating may be partly capturing the effects of several of the independent variables. To assess this, we ran the regressions without credit rating as a control. The coefficient magnitude and statistical significance for cash flow volatility, equity return volatility, interest coverage, and bond size all increased somewhat under this alternative specification.

If a regressor $x$ is normally distributed, replacing $x$ with its standardized counterpart $[x - \text {mean}(x)]/\text {std}(x)$ in the regression results in a new coefficient estimate that equals the original estimate $\text {est}(x)$ multiplied by $\text {std}(x)$, without changing its statistical significance. This standardization, however, allows for cross-variable comparisons of significance. Based on this, it is common to measure economic significance of a variable in terms of a one standard deviation change in that variable, i.e. $\text {est}(x) \times \text {std}(x)$.

The number of firm-year observations in Table 6 is about 10 percent larger than in Table 5 because we are no longer restricted to firms with 40 observations of quarterly cash flows between 1989 and 2009.

In order to save space, Table 8 (and some of the remaining tables below) present results for expected cash flow volatility and one of the historical measures, that being Std(CF/Firm value). The results for the other historical measures are generally similar.

We require at least 15 observations in order to calculate the partial correlation for each issuer. We focus on expected cash flow volatility since it provides a point estimate of volatility that does not use overlapping cash flow observations. The historical volatility measures such as Std(CF/Firm value) use overlapping observations, so it is unclear as to which cash flows in time drive the correlation with spread.

The size of the decline in the number of firm-months for the financial crisis period is puzzling: according to statistics from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, average daily trading volume in corporate bonds in the U.S. was about $17.3 billion from 2002–2006 and about $15 billion from 2007–2009 (see http://www.sifma.org/uploadedFiles/Research/Statistics/StatisticsFiles/CM-US-Bond-Market-Trading-Volume-SIFMA.xls). It is possible that insurance companies reduced their trading activities in corporate bonds during the crisis to a much larger extent than did other participants in these markets. Alternatively, there may be some problems with the NAIC data source during this period. Regardless, it is not clear how representative our sample is during the crisis period, and our inferences about this period are subject to this caveat.

It is worth noting that while the loading of equity return volatility was sharply higher during the financial crisis as compared to the 2002–2006 period, its loading was also much higher during the 2002–2006 period as compared to the 1994–2001 time frame. The importance of this variable was first pointed out by Campbell and Taksler (2003), based on a sample period from 1995–1999. Equity return volatility has thus become even more significant as an explanatory factor for corporate bond yields than was apparent in Campbell and Taksler (2003).

Analyst forecasts are obtained from the Institutional Brokers’ Estimate System (I/B/E/S).

If we repeat the regressions, but drop our cash flow volatility measures, the coefficient estimate, statistical significance, and economic importance of accounting earnings volatility do not change appreciably—in fact, the coefficient estimate and economic significance decline slightly.

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Titel: Cash flow volatility and corporate bond yield spreads
verfasst von: Alan V. S. Douglas
Alan G. Huang
Kenneth R. Vetzal
Publikationsdatum: 01.02.2016
Verlag: Springer US
Erschienen in: Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting / Ausgabe 2/2016
Print ISSN: 0924-865X
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-7179
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-014-0474-0

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