nach oben

Demography

Erschienen in:

01.02.2011

Heterogeneity in the Strehler-Mildvan General Theory of Mortality and Aging

verfasst von: Hui Zheng, Yang Yang, Kenneth C. Land

Erschienen in: Demography | Ausgabe 1/2011

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config

KI-gestützte Suche

Aus

Abstract

This study examines and further develops the classic Strehler-Mildvan (SM) general theory of mortality and aging. Three predictions from the SM theory are tested by examining the age dependence of mortality patterns for 42 countries (including developed and developing countries) over the period 1955–2003. By applying finite mixture regression models, principal component analysis, and random-effects panel regression models, we find that (1) the negative correlation between the initial adulthood mortality rate and the rate of increase in mortality with age derived in the SM theory exists but is not constant; (2) within the SM framework, the implied age of expected zero vitality (expected maximum survival age) also is variable over time; (3) longevity trajectories are not homogeneous among the countries; (4) Central American and Southeast Asian countries have higher expected age of zero vitality than other countries in spite of relatively disadvantageous national ecological systems; (5) within the group of Central American and Southeast Asian countries, a more disadvantageous national ecological system is associated with a higher expected age of zero vitality; and (6) larger agricultural and food productivities, higher labor participation rates, higher percentages of population living in urban areas, and larger GDP per capita and GDP per unit of energy use are important beneficial national ecological system factors that can promote survival. These findings indicate that the SM theory needs to be generalized to incorporate heterogeneity among human populations.

Vorheriger Artikel Disability Among Native-born and Foreign-born Blacks in the United States

Nächster Artikel Child Underreporting, Fertility, and Sex Ratio Imbalance in China

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Henceforth, we use ecological system to refer to what Strehler and Mildvan (1960) termed the “environment”; we use the term environment for one of the four elements in ecological demography.

These 42 countries include two regions: Hong Kong and Puerto Rico. For the sake of simplicity, we will refer to them as countries in this article.

It must be emphasized that the objective of this paper is not

to conduct a systematic test of the POET model in ecological demography. Rather, we study whether the POET model can be used to enrich the concept of the environment in SM theory and to account for hidden heterogeneity and variations in the environmental deleteriousness measure

D .

Following Strehler and Mildvan ( 1960

), our primary analyses focus on five-year male mortality rates beginning at age 30, 30–34, 35–39, . . ., 80–84, and then the open-ended interval ages 85+. We similarly analyzed five-year female mortality rates from age 40 to 85+. The initial age is higher for females because of the relatively high risk of maternal mortality in the childbearing ages in developing countries. This can confound estimates of the parameters of the Gompertz function. For the most part, findings are similar for female mortality rates as for male rates. Any differences are noted below.

Formulas for the calculation of these parameters are given in Strehler and Mildvan ( 1960 ) and will not be repeated here.

While period-to-period changes in lnR ₀ and α for Argentina and France are negatively correlated across the 11 time periods of the study, the correlation of the period-specific values across the 11 periods is slightly positive for France (.009) and substantially positive for Argentina (.487) because of relatively high lnR ₀ values in 1955. Peculiarities in the age structures of these two countries in the immediate post–World War II decades likely account for these differences.

Strehler and Mildvan (1960:18) noted that in order to compare countries with respect to the relative deleteriousness of their ecological systems, a “base” country must be chosen with its D parameter set to a specific number—say, 100. They recommended using the country with the most favorable national ecological system for this base, and then measuring the deleteriousness of the other countries relative to this base. For the data in our analysis, as plotted in Fig. 4, Malta in 1985 has the least deleterious ecological system and thus it is used as the base, as indicated on the horizontal axes in Fig. 4.

The set of 42 countries is divided into developed and developing based on per capital gross domestic product, with developed countries at or above $10,000 per capita.

We dropped 1955 mortality data to match with national ecological system data available from the World Bank Group. Three quadratic trajectories are consistent with the trajectory of the mean of 1/B from 1960 to 2003, as shown in Fig. 5.

The findings are based on male mortality data. An analysis of female age of zero vitality trajectories shows some similarities and some differences in group memberships from the male results. Among the 42 countries, 26 countries have the same group membership for male and female: highest trajectory (Panama, Mexico, Ecuador, Philippines, and Thailand), middle trajectory (the United States, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Denmark, France, Japan, New Zealand, Sweden, Switzerland, Venezuela, Cuba, and Hong Kong), and lowest trajectory (Argentina, Egypt, Ireland, Mauritius, Singapore, Malta, and the United Kingdom). But, in 13 countries, and especially in Europe (Norway, Austria, Finland, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Trinidad and Tobago, and Israel), women in these countries move to the lowest trajectory while their counterparts belong to the middle trajectory. One exception in Europe is the Netherlands, where women move to the middle trajectory while their counterparts belong to lowest trajectory. Moreover, women in Costa Rica and Puerto Rico move to the middle trajectory while their counterparts belong to the highest trajectory. Further research should study these male-female differences in group memberships.

The country-period mortality data and national ecological system data were merged. We applied the Hausman test to determine if it is statistically justifiable to use random-effects instead of fixed-effects regression models. The results show that the coefficients estimated by the efficient random-effects estimator are the same as those estimated by the consistent fixed-effects estimator (Prob > chi-squared =

.539); therefore, the random effects for the country-specific intercepts can be assumed to be independent of the regressors. Accordingly, we use the coefficient estimates from the random-effects panel model.

Only the components accounting for substantial variance in the regressor space and having substantial component loadings for two or more regressors were identified. When calculating the component score, we included only those variables that possessed component loadings of .5 or greater across all time periods.

Emissions of organic water pollutants are measured by biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), which refers to the amount of oxygen that bacteria in water needs to break down waste. This is a standard water-treatment test for the presence of organic pollutants (World Development Indicators 2008).

We also can obtain the positive relationship between D and lnR ₀ from the equations for B and D. D is the standardized B/α. To simplify, D = B/α. Since B = −α/lnR ₀, therefore, D = −1/lnR ₀, or lnR ₀ = −1/D. Thus, as D increases, lnR ₀ also increases.

Broe, K. E., Chen, T. C., Weinberg, J., Bischoff-Ferrari, H. A., Holick, M. F., & Kiel, D. P. (2007). A higher dose of vitamin D reduces the risk of falls in nursing home residents: A randomized, multiple-dose study. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 55, 234–249.CrossRef

Bryk, A. S., & Raudenbush, S. W. (1987). Application of hierarchical linear models to assessing change. Psychological Bulletin, 101, 147–158.CrossRef

Bryk, A. S., & Raudenbush, S. W. (1992). Hierarchical linear models for social and behavioral research: Application and data analysis methods. Newbury Park: Sage.

Duncan, O. D. (1959). Human ecology and population studies. In P. M. Hauser & O. D. Duncan (Eds.), The study of population: An inventory and appraisal (pp. 678–716). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Faloon, W. (2008). An overlooked method to prevent millions of needless deaths. Life Extension, 3–12.

Garcia-Palmieri, M. R., Feliberti, M., Costas, P., Benson, H., Blanton, J. H., & Aixala, R. (1965). Coronary heart disease mortality—A death certificate study. Journal of Chronic Diseases, 18, 1317–1323.CrossRef

Garland, C. F., Garland, F. C., Gorham, E. D., Lipkin, M., Newmark, H., Mohr, S. B., Holick M. F. (2006). The role of vitamin D in cancer prevention. American Journal of Public Health, 96, 252–261.CrossRef

Garland, C. F., Gorham, E. D., Mohr, S. B., Grant, W. B., Giovannucci, E. L., Lipkin, ... Garland F. C. (2007). Vitamin D and prevention of breast cancer: Pooled analysis. Journal of Steroid Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, 103, 708–711.CrossRef

Gibbs, J. P., & Poston, D. L., Jr. (1975). The division of labor: Conceptualization and related measures. Social Forces, 53, 468–476.CrossRef

Goldstein, H. (1995). Multilevel statistical models (2nd ed.). London: Edward Arnold.

Gompertz, B. (1825). On the nature of the function expressive of the law of mortality. Philosophical Transactions, 27, 513–585.CrossRef

Gordan, T., Garcia-Palmieri, M. R., Kagan, A., Kannel, W. B., & Schiffman, J. (1974). Differences in coronary heart disease in Framingham, Honolulu and Puerto Rico. Journal of Chronic Diseases, 27, 329–344.CrossRef

Gorham, E. D., Garland, C. F., Garland, F. C., Grant, W. B., Mohr, S. B., Lipkin, M., Newmar H. L., Giovannucci E., Wei M., Holick M. F. (2005). Vitamin D and prevention of colorectal cancer. Journal of Steroid Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, 97, 179–194.CrossRef

Grant, W. B., & Holick, M. E. (2005). Benefits and requirements of vitamin D for optimal health: A review. Alternative Medicine Review, 10, 94–111.

Grant, W. B., Strange, R. C., & Garland, C. F. (2003). Sunshine is good medicine. The health benefits of ultraviolet-b induced vitamin D production. Journal of Cosmetic Dermatology, 2(2), 86–98.CrossRef

Gross, M. D. (2005). Vitamin D and calcium in the prevention of prostate and colon cancer: New approaches for the identification of needs. Journal of Nutrition, 135, 326–331.

Hawley, A. H. (1950). Human ecology: A theory of community structure. New York: Ronald.

Holick, M. E. (2007). Vitamin D deficiency. New England Journal of Medicine, 357, 266–281.CrossRef

Horiuchi, S., & Wilmoth, J. R. (1998). Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at older ages. Demography, 35, 391–412.CrossRef

John, E. M., Schwartz, G. G., Koo, J., Berg, D. V. D., & Ingles, S. A. (2005). Sun exposure, vitamin D receptor gene polymorphisms, and risk of advanced prostate cancer. Cancer Research, 65, 5470–5479.CrossRef

Jones, B., Nagin, D., & Roeder, K. (2001). A SAS procedure based on mixture models for estimating developmental trajectories. Sociological Method and Research, 29, 374–393.CrossRef

Kannisto, V., Lauritsen, J., Thatcher, A. R., & Vaupel, J. W. (1994). Reductions in mortality at advanced ages: Several decades of evidence from 27 countries. Population and Development Review, 20, 793–810.CrossRef

Kirkwood, T. B. L. (1990). The disposable soma theory of aging. In D. E. Harrison (Ed.), Genetic effects on aging II (pp. 9–19). Caldwell: Telford.

Kirkwood, T. B. L. (1996). Human senescence. BioEssays, 18, 1009–1016.CrossRef

Kowald, A., & Kirkwood, T. B. L. (1993). Explaining fruit fly longevity. Science, 260, 1664–1665.CrossRef

Land, K., McCall, P., & Cohen, L. (1990). Structural covariates of homicide rates: Are there any invariances across time and social space? American Journal of Sociology, 95, 922–963.CrossRef

Land, K., McCall, P., & Nagin, D. (1996). A comparison of Poisson, negative binomial, and semiparametric mixed Poisson regression models with empirical applications to criminal careers data. Sociological Methods and Research, 24, 387–440.CrossRef

Lynch, S. M., & Brown, J. S. (2001). Reconsidering mortality compression and deceleration: An alternative model of mortality rates. Demography, 38, 79–95.CrossRef

Martinez, I., Torres, R., & Frias, Z. (1975). Cancer incidence in the United States and Puerto Rico. Cancer Research, 35, 3265–3271.

McArdle, J. J., & Epstein, D. (1987). Latent growth curves within developmental structural equation models. Child Development, 58, 110–133.CrossRef

Meredith, W., & Tisak, J. (1990). Latent curve analysis. Psychometrika, 55, 107–122.CrossRef

Muthen, B. O. (1989). Latent variable modeling in heterogeneous populations. Psychometrika, 54, 557–585.CrossRef

Nagin, D. (1999). Analyzing developmental trajectories: A semi-parametric, group-based approach. Psychological Methods, 4, 139–177.CrossRef

Nagin, D., & Land, L. (1993). Age, criminal careers, and population heterogeneity: Specification and estimation of a nonparametric, mixed Poisson model. Criminology, 31, 327–362.CrossRef

Omran, A. R. (1982). Epidemiologic transition. In International encyclopedia of population (pp. 172–83). New York: The Free Press.

Poston, D. L., & Frisbie, W. P. (2005). Ecological demography. In D. L. Poston & M. Micklin (Eds.), Handbook of population. New York: Springer.CrossRef

Prieto, M. D., Llorca, L., & Delgado-Rodriguez, M. (1996). Longitudinal Gompertzian and Weibull analyses of adult mortality in Spain (Europe), 1990–1992. Mechanisms of Ageing and Development, 90, 35–51.CrossRef

Rau, R., Soroko, E., Jasilionis, D., & Vaupel, J. W. (2008). Continued reductions in mortality at advanced ages. Population and Development Review, 34, 747–768.CrossRef

Riggs, J. E. (1992). Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis of adult mortality in the US, 1900–1986. Mechanisms of Ageing and Development, 54, 235–247.CrossRef

Riggs, J. E. (1993). Aging, genomic entropy and carcinogenesis: Implications derived from longitudinal age-specific colon cancer mortality rate dynamics. Mechanisms of Ageing and Development, 72, 165–181.CrossRef

Riggs, J. E. (1994). Carcinogenesis, genetic instability and genomic entropy: Insight derived from malignant brain tumor age specific mortality rate dynamics. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 170, 331–338.CrossRef

Riggs, J. E. (1995). Increasing multiple myeloma mortality among the elderly: A manifestation of aging and different survival. Mechanisms of Ageing and Development, 77, 227–234.CrossRef

Riggs, J. E., & Millecchia, R. J. (1992). Using the Gompertz-Strehler model of aging and mortality to explain mortality trends in industrialized countries. Mechanisms of Ageing and Development, 65, 217–228.CrossRef

Riggs, J. E., & Myers, E. J. (1994). Defining the impact of prevention and improved management upon stroke mortality. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 47, 931–939.CrossRef

Rosenwaike, I. (1987). Mortality differentials among person born in Cuba, Mexico, and Puerto Rico residing in the United States, 1979–81. American Journal of Public Health, 77, 603–606.CrossRef

Rosenwaike, I., & Hempstead, K. (1990). Mortality among three Puerto Rican populations: Residents of Puerto Rico and migrants in New York City and in the balance of the United States, 1979–1981. International Migration Review, 24, 684–702.CrossRef

Rosero-Bixby, L. (2008). The exceptionally high life expectancy of Costa Rican nonagenarians. Demography, 45, 673–691.CrossRef

Schnore, L. F. (1958). Social morphology and human ecology. American Journal of Sociology, 63, 620–634.CrossRef

Sorlie, P. D., Backlund, E., Johnson, N. J., & Rogot, E. (1993). Mortality by Hispanic status in the United States. Journal of the American Medical Association, 270, 2464–2468.CrossRef

Strehler, B. L., & Mildvan, A. S. (1960). General theory of mortality and aging. Science, 132, 14–21.CrossRef

Tuohimaa, P., Pukkala, E., Scelo, G., Olsen, J., Brewster, D., Hemminki, K., ... Brennan, P. (2007). Does solar exposure, as indicated by the non-melanoma skin cancers, protect from solid cancers: Vitamin D as a possible explanation. European Journal of Cancer, 43, 1701–1712.CrossRef

U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. (1982). Model life tables for developing countries. New York: United Nations.

Vaupel, J. W. (1997). Trajectories of mortality at advanced ages. In K. H. Wachter & C. E. Finch (Eds.), Between Zeus and the salmon: The biodemography of longevity (pp. 17–37). Washington, DC: National Academy.

Willett, J. B., & Sayer, A. G. (1994). Using covariance structure analysis to detect correlates and predictors of individual change over time. Psychological Bulletin, 116, 363–381.CrossRef

Wilmoth, J. R. (1997). In search of limits. In K. H. Wachter & C. E. Finch (Eds.), Between Zeus and the salmon: The biodemography of longevity (pp. 38–64). Washington, DC: National Academy.

Wilmoth, J. R., & Lundstrom, H. (1996). Extreme longevity in five countries: Presentation of trends with special attention to issues of data quality. European Journal of Population, 12, 63–93.CrossRef

Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. Cambridge: MIT.

World Development Indicators. (2008). Indicators published by the World Bank. Available online at http://data.worldbank.org/indicator.

Yashin, A. I., Iachine, I. A., & Begun, A. S. (2000). Mortality modeling: A review. Mathematical Population Studies, 8, 305–332.CrossRef

Yashin, A. I., Begun, A. S., Boiko, S. I., Ukraintseva, S. V., & Oeppen, J. (2001). The new trends in survival improvement require a revision of traditional gerontological concepts. Experimental Gerontology, 37, 157–167.CrossRef

Yashin, A. I., Begun, A. S., Boiko, S. I., Ukrainsteva, S. V., & Oeppen, J. (2002a). New age patterns of survival improvement in Sweden: Do they characterize changes in individual aging? Mechanisms of Ageing and Development, 123, 637–647.CrossRef

Yashin, A. I., Ukraintseva, S. V., Boiko, S. I., & Arbeev, K. G. (2002b). Individual aging and mortality rate: How are they related? Social Biology, 49, 206–217.

Titel: Heterogeneity in the Strehler-Mildvan General Theory of Mortality and Aging
verfasst von: Hui Zheng
Yang Yang
Kenneth C. Land
Publikationsdatum: 01.02.2011
Verlag: Springer US
Erschienen in: Demography / Ausgabe 1/2011
Print ISSN: 0070-3370
Elektronische ISSN: 1533-7790
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-011-0013-8

Springer Professional

Abstract

Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu Ihrer Lizenz zu erhalten.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 1/2011

Son Preference in Indian Families: Absolute Versus Relative Wealth Effects

The Effect of Family Member Migration on Education and Work Among Nonmigrant Youth in Mexico

Nonmarital Childbearing in Russia: Second Demographic Transition or Pattern of Disadvantage?

Losses of Expected Lifetime in the United States and Other Developed Countries: Methods and Empirical Analyses

Disability Among Native-born and Foreign-born Blacks in the United States

A Multigenerational View of Inequality