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Demography

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01.02.2012

Skewed Sex Ratios at Birth and Future Marriage Squeeze in China and India, 2005–2100

verfasst von: Christophe Z. Guilmoto

Erschienen in: Demography | Ausgabe 1/2012

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Abstract

I examine the potential impact of the anticipated future marriage squeeze on nuptiality patterns in China and India during the twenty-first century. I use population projections from 2005 to 2100 based on three different scenarios for the sex ratio at birth (SRB). To counteract the limitations of cross-sectional methods commonly used to assess the severity of marriage squeezes, I use a two-sex cohort-based procedure to simulate marriage patterns over the twenty-first century based on the female dominance model. I also examine two more-flexible marriage functions to illustrate the potential impact of changes in marriage schedules as a response to the marriage squeeze. Longitudinal indicators of marriage squeeze indicate that the number of prospective grooms in both countries will exceed that of prospective brides by more 50% for three decades in the most favorable scenario. Rates of male bachelorhood will not peak before 2050, and the squeeze conditions will be felt several decades thereafter, even among cohorts unaffected by adverse SRB. If the SRB is allowed to return to normalcy by 2020, the proportion of men unmarried at age 50 is expected to rise to 15% in China by 2055 and to 10% in India by 2065. India suffers from the additional impact of a delayed fertility transition on its age structures.

Vorheriger Artikel Beyond Absenteeism: Father Incarceration and Child Development

Nächster Artikel The Quality of Male Fertility Data in Major U.S. Surveys

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The literature on the sex ratio issues in Asia is now abundant and describes in particular determinants of gender discrimination. On the diversity of situations across Asia, see Croll (2000), Miller (2001), Attané and Guilmoto (2007), and UNFPA-sponsored case studies (UNFPA 2007).

Data used in this section are based on United Nations estimates for 1950–2005 complemented by projection results for the period beyond 2005.

According to my projections, the overall yearly decline in birth cohort size during the 2005–2100 period is 0.25% in China and 0.4% in India (rapid transition scenario).

No projection exists for India. Forecasts of China’s future sex imbalances (Attané 2006; Tuljapurkar et al. 1995) are based on 1990 or 2000 census data and on fixed fertility and mortality assumptions. Estimates provided by Jiang et al. (2007) follow a more realistic demographic scenario. An alternative method based on nuptiality tables has also been proposed by Jiang (2011).

Kulkarni (2010) analyzed the recent SRB downturn in India; see also Sharma and Haub (2008). Chinese trends are described in Das Gupta et al. (2009) and Guilmoto and Ren (2011). Preliminary data from the Chinese 2010 census put the sex ratio at birth at 118, confirming the slight downturn. Original data are found in the reports of the 2000 census and of the 2005 1% sample survey for China, while Indian data are from the annual reports of the Sample Registration System.

Little’s law states that the average number in a given stable system is equal to the rate of new arrivals in the system multiplied by their average time in the system (Tijms 2003:50–52).

See Keyfitz and Caswell (2005) and Iannelli et al. (2005) for a broader discussion of marriage models.

Jones (2007) provides the most recent comprehensive synthesis of nuptiality in East Asia. Detailed statistics and case studies are also available in Jones and Ramdas (2004) and Xenos et al. (2006), as well as in United Nations (1990) for trends prior to the 1990s. See also Retherford et al. (2001) on Japan, and Kwon (2007) on South Korea.

This figure is slightly above that of Kerala women today but still distinctly below that of Sri Lankan women (Caldwell 2005).

Higher remarriage rates among men than women represent a rather untenable hypothesis in view of the mounting surplus of unmarried men. On remarriage in India, see Mari Bhat and Halli (1999) and Chen (2000).

I am grateful to the suggestion of an anonymous reviewer on this point.

Better marriage opportunities for women and lower dowry costs in high sex-ratio societies are among the hypotheses put forward by Guttentag and Secord (1983).

For simplicity, the effects of birth imbalances and age-structural change on the marriage squeeze are assumed to be additive.

For critical discussion of the HM model, see Iannelli et al. (2005:38–41). See also Hinaba’s observations (2000:395). A long-term study of nuptiality patterns in Spain using the HM model concluded that most changes were driven more by behavioral factors than by age-sex compositional changes (Esteve et al. 2009).

These estimates are derived from the difference between the proportion single as of 2005 and the simulated figure in the rapid-transition scenario (FD model).

For reports on recent changing marriage practices in Asia, see Blanchet (2005), Davin (2005), Kaur (2004), Kim (2008), Le Bach et al. (2007), and Pandey (2003). For a larger perspective, see the analysis by Hudson and den Boer (2004).

A more detailed discussion on SRB estimation issues for China and India may be found in Goodkind (2008) and Kulkarni (2010).

For weighted sex ratios corrected for remarriages, see Jiang et al. (2007:357).

Age-specific marriage rates have to be adjusted in the FD model in order to achieve the desired age gap between men and women. The specific age distributions of unmarried men and fluctuations in cohort size (especially in China) tend to distort the observed age at first marriage among men.

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Titel: Skewed Sex Ratios at Birth and Future Marriage Squeeze in China and India, 2005–2100
verfasst von: Christophe Z. Guilmoto
Publikationsdatum: 01.02.2012
Verlag: Springer US
Erschienen in: Demography / Ausgabe 1/2012
Print ISSN: 0070-3370
Elektronische ISSN: 1533-7790
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-011-0083-7

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