Low Carbon Pathways for Growth in India

This chapter sets out the context for the book. The central question asked in this book is what are the low-carbon paths that India can adhere to without compromising its growth? This question has been answered in the various chapters that follow. The first part of the book examines the current energy demand and supply in India, the low-carbon pathways and the cost of inaction due to loss in yield of food crops such as maize, rice and wheat. The second part of the book provides a detailed discussion of the energy challenges faced in key sectors such as transport, industry and urban water supply. The chapter also provides an outline for the book.

This chapter examines India’s energy demand profiles and supply options. Unlike other markets, the energy sector is slow moving and changes in consumption and production profiles are a result of lumpy investment decisions as also gradual improvements in efficiency. As a result, India’s energy sector profile appears unchanged since 1980, with coal and oil dominating the energy mix. This broad average, however, masks a significant shift away from coal and towards oil until 2000s, and the subsequent recovery in coal’s share. The competition between coal and oil in the last century has now been played out between coal and gas over a much shorter period. The outcome has been an energy mix that is dominated by coal with some gains being made by renewables. In addition, India remains significantly import dependent for all forms of fossil fuels.

Modelling the monetary impacts of climate change globally requires quantitative analysis of a very broad range of environmental, economic and social issues. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) provide a useful tool in this regard. Their estimates provide an important foundation for later work, and their results are valuable for informing policy. This chapter provides an overview of the existing models including the Mendelsohn, Dietz and Stern models. In addition it reviews the Indian models which include the NCEAR, TERI, IRADe and the McKinsey model. It also discusses the co-benefits approach proposed by Dubash (Econ Polit Weekly 48(22):47–62, 2013) in the Indian context.

The climate debate for India encompasses issues other than just energy choices and energy efficiency. It is an integrated puzzle around lifestyle choices, aspirations of 1.2 billion people, and informed actions on water, air quality, and climate front. Further, in the wake of the COP-21 talks at Paris and the already announced US-China agreement on peaking of GHG emissions, India’s approach to climate mitigation and adaptation is keenly watched in the climate policy space globally. This paper outlines one such approach using the India Energy Security Scenarios-2047 tool of the NITI Aayog and explores India’s emissions trajectory till the year 2047 if the past trends continue and the trajectory if low carbon energy choices are made. Further, the study states the interventions in the demand and the supply sector which can make this transition feasible. However, such a transition will not happen without making investments in technologies, programs and infrastructure and hence a likely estimate of the quantum of investments is also estimated till the year 2047.

India is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts. Climate change impacts are many and varied, and this paper provides only first-order approximations. In the agriculture sector, the paper has looked only at output losses of three major food crops—rice, maize and wheat. While the health impacts of climate change include mortality at old age due to heat waves, this paper has focused on deaths related to three important diseases—diarrhea, malaria, and dengue. Impacts on energy infrastructure will be many, and the analysis has focused on increased requirement of power generation for meeting peak hour demand of electricity.

By 2030 India’s urban population is projected to almost double, adding another 200 million people to its towns and cities. In the context of a changing climate, this growing urbanization poses a cause for concern for the country’s carbon footprint. Cities, in their consumption of energy as electricity or fuel in transportation, are a significant source of carbon emissions, responsible for up to 75% of global carbon emissions. With India’s urbanization still at a nascent stage, there is a real opportunity to steer the projected growth away from high-carbon lock-ins and towards a low-carbon pathway. This paper examines opportunities for low-carbon growth in the context of urban development and urban mobility in the country and also illustrates the larger framework within which the aspect of urban mobility is embedded and the multiple pathways available for attaining low-carbon goals in the sector.

Major anthropogenic sources of these emissions include vehicular transport and industrial activity. The industrial sector accounts for the largest share of delivered energy consumption and is expected to consume over half of the global delivered energy in 2040. 31% of the world energy consumption or 200 quadrillion British Thermal unit (Btu) is consumed in the industrial sector worldwide. This is expected to rise to 307 Btu in 2040. Commensurate with the energy consumption in the world, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are expected to increase from 31 billion metric tons to 36 billion metric tons in 2020 and 45 billion metric tons in 2040. Greenhouse gas emissions for 2012 are estimated to be 31.6 Gt (Gt). This paper examines how much carbon dioxide can be attributed to industry and what are the ways to decarbonize industry in the Indian context. While the regulatory mechanism required to reduce energy intensity is in place for the most energy-intensive industrial sectors, the generation of electricity is still primarily dependent of coal. Use of renewable needs to be stepped up and is line with India’s commitment of INDCs.

About 21% of worldwide CO₂ emissions are attributed to transport in 2014. India’s rail transport has the lowest rate of energy consumption per Tonne-Kilometre (TKM) for goods by rail (102 kJ/TKM) among the countries considered (OECD/IEA 2015). However, given the increase in demand owing to the growth in population and GDP as also the Indian Railways’ expansion plans, the energy consumption of Indian Railways is set to rise. Indian Railways has already considered the importance of increasing the share of low-carbon renewable energy sources such as solar and wind in its total energy mix. It is opportune for the Indian Railways to cut CO₂ emissions using electricity generated by the sun, wind or biofuels. This chapter is an outcome of a study which examined the feasibility of complete decarbonization of Indian Railways under different scenarios for achieving this goal. The study estimated first, rail passenger (both suburban and non-suburban transport) and freight forecast between 2015–16 and 2030–31. As the second step, the study estimated the expected share of electrified tracks in the overall running tracks and the expected share of electric hauling of passenger and freight transport, between 2015–16 and 2030–31. In the third step, this study calculated the energy forecast in terms of electricity and diesel arising from rail transport forecast and share of electric and diesel traction was estimated, between 2015–16 and 2030–31. As the fourth step, the CO₂ emissions attributed to Indian Railways were also calculated, between 2015–16 and 2030–31.

As more people start living and moving to urban areas, and with improving lifestyles and economic prosperity (urban monthly per capita expenditure of Rs. 2630 was 84% higher than rural expenditure in 2011–12), the demand for finite resources such as land, water, and fossil fuels will be higher than ever. India is one of the most water-scarce countries in the world. Indian municipalities are undercapitalized and their high energy costs are neither feasible nor sustainable. To bring down the energy cost, the water sector in urban areas needs interventions in both demand and supply sides, and at individual and institutional levels. This paper focuses on various energy efficiency measures to reduce energy costs for water supply at the municipal level in India and calculates the magnitude of these cost savings and reduction in emissions for 10 of the 53 large Indian cities with population more than a million in 2011. Showcasing these energy cost savings and GHG reduction findings, this research argues for widespread adoption of energy efficiency measures as it brings multiple benefits.

Environmental degradation coupled with the threat of climate change cast a dark cloud over India’s future economic growth. Many of the large Indian cities have highest level of air pollution concentration in the world. There is also a large section of poor population that still depends on biofuel for their heating and energy purpose at the household level, most farmers practice burning of crop residue at the end of the harvest season, and much of India’s energy is till generated from coal-based thermal power plants. India’s conventional sources of power generation are depleting fast and a situation leading up to an energy crisis is probable. To avoid such situation while mitigating the climate change risks, in the last decade, Indian government has focused on generating power using renewable sources (both grid-connected and off-grid) and to complement its efforts, it has devoted considerable amount of resources and political mandate towards this goal. This research tries to document the role of renewable energy, especially solar energy sector’s history, plot its recent trends, and understand the future challenges.

This paper talks of the emerging paradigm of water management that acknowledges critical ecosystem services, and challenges the linear and positive relation between water availability and food security. The ways water used to be managed, globally, are changing rapidly. The existing engineering modes of water management entail constructing large structures intervening into the natural hydrological flows, and exploiting the water for human use. A large component of demand for water emerged from the need of the agricultural sector in various parts of the developing and developed world to ensure food security. Over time, the developed nations began realizing that such traditional engineering ways of water management entailing large constructions are not sustainable in the long run, and can have serious impacts on ecosystems. Since large parts of livelihoods are dependent on the ecosystem services, negative impacts on ecosystems affect livelihoods negatively, too. Hence, a new paradigm of water management recognizing the ecosystems livelihoods linkages is emerging. This new paradigm is known as Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) and, when applied at the level of a river basin, is referred to as Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM). This new paradigm delinks economic growth and food security from increasing water use, and provides for an ecosystemic definition of food security. However, this changing paradigm is yet to be recognized in policy documents of the developing world, especially India. For India to embark upon a low-carbon growth trajectory, it must embrace the new paradigm of water management.

The level of energy trade that swims across Indian Ocean is massive. While the ocean is far smaller than the Pacific and the Atlantic in its geographical spread, yet about 36 million barrels per day or about 40% of the global oil supply accounting for about 64% of oil trade use this stretch of water. Consequently, the Ocean has become the biggest challenge for maritime security and global sea trade. Securing energy security in this environment means ensuring that the energy lines are kept safe so that the onshore fuel dependent sectors can make long-term plans for investment. This would also depend on how well an economy builds up its navy and shipping power to address these challenges. This paper tries to look into the questions such as, HOW deep is the Indian commitment to this massive combination of opportunities and threats at her shores? How strong is the policy level and financial commitment to make inroads in the most significant geo-strategic change happening in the world economy? Are there elements of an active and integrated response taking shape?

This chapter draws conclusion to the main question asked in the book: how can a country grow in a low-carbon way? The book has examined this issue from the lens of the transport, industry and water sectors. Changes in lifestyle may be necessary to achieve energy efficiency in the household sector, with energy-efficient buildings in the commercial and residential sector. A move towards the use of energy efficient appliances will also be very important. All this will require access to finance and technology. Finally, innovative ways of thinking and the participation of every citizen of this country will be necessary to achieve the voluntary goals India has set for itself.