1 Introduction
1.1 What Are the Key Sources of Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction in ECOWAS Countries?
Sectoral contribution to poverty reduction resulting from an additional 1% point of sectoral growth by 2015 | Growth and poverty impact of an additional 1% point agricultural growth by 2015 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Due to Agricultural growth | Due to Non-agricultural growth | Increase in Agricultural Value Added (US$ million) | Reduction in national poverty rate (%) | |
Benin | 52.5 | 47.5 | 270.9 | −10.7 |
Burkina Faso | 60.0 | 40.0 | 215.6 | −10.3 |
Cape Verde | 72.0 | 28.0 | 27.5 | −25.9 |
Gambia | 66.7 | 33.3 | 20.8 | −11.1 |
Ghana | 54.0 | 46.0 | 296.2 | −2.9 |
Guinea | 59.2 | 40.8 | 57.0 | −10.0 |
Côte d’Ivoire | 73.0 | 27.0 | 498.5 | −6.5 |
Liberia | 69.6 | 30.4 | 53.0 | −11.9 |
Mali | 65.2 | 34.8 | 389.5 | −6.7 |
Niger | 60.0 | 40.0 | 253.0 | −6.5 |
Nigeria | 75.0 | 25.0 | NA | NA |
Senegal | 56.6 | 43.4 | 132.0 | −12.6 |
Togo | 75.0 | 25.0 | 231.0 | −9.8 |
Benin | Food crops (maize, roots and tubers)a
|
---|---|
Burkina Faso | Cattle and sorghum/millet |
Cape Verde | Food crops |
Côte d’Ivoire | Yam, cassava and plantains |
The Gambia | Cereals (millet/sorghum)a and livestock |
Ghana | Root crops and fisheries |
Guinea | Rice |
Guinea Bissau | Food crops and fisheries |
Liberia | Food crops |
Mali | Food crops (rice; millet/sorghum)a
|
Niger | Livestock |
Nigeria | Cassava, Rice |
Senegal | Livestock and food crops (millet/sorghum; rice)a
|
Sierra Leone | Cassava, rice |
Togo | Food crops |
1.2 Are ECOWAS Countries on Track to Meeting CAADP’s Growth and Poverty Reduction Targets by 2015?
Country | Agricultural growth rate by 2015 under BAU/current trends | Agricultural growth rate by 2015 under pre-CAADP strategies | Poverty reduction by 2015 under current trends | Poverty reduction by 2015 under pre-CAADP strategies | Poverty reduction by 2015 under CAADP 6% growth target |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benin | 5.1 | 14.3 | 17.7 | −55.9 | 9.4 |
Burkina Faso | 5.1 | 5.3 | −40.0 | −44.1 | −50.5 |
Cape Verde | 2.6 | 5.0 | −61.0 | −75 | −78.0 |
Gambia | 3.7 | 3.8 | −9.8 | −10.4 | −11.3 |
Ghana | 4.2 | 7.5 | −50.1 | −54 | −66.0 |
Guinea | 3.0 | 3.2 | −25.9 | −28.2 | −42.2 |
Côte d’Ivoire | 2.5 | 2.6 | 37.0 | 35.3 | 10.0 |
Liberia | 5.0 | 4.0a
| 24.3 | 24.2 | 22.6 |
Mali | 5.5 | 8.5 | −11.0 | −29 | −14.1 |
Niger | 4.4 | 6.2 | −6.5 | −17.4 | −16.6 |
Nigeria | 5.7 | 9.5 | −10.0 | −30.0b
|
c
|
Senegal | 4.1 | NA | −43.8 | NA | −49.7 |
Sierra Leone | 4.2 | NA | −42.5 | NA | −47.6 |
Togo | 4.7 | 5.0 | −17.2 | −19.4 | −26.4 |
1.3 How Fast Should ECOWAS Countries Grow to Achieve the Poverty MDG? How Much Would They Have to Spend?
Country | Required agricultural growth rate to achieve the poverty MDG target by 2015 (%) | Required agricultural growth rate to achieve the poverty MDG target by 2020 (%) | Required agricultural funding growth rate to achieve the poverty MDG target by 2015 (%) | Required agricultural funding growth rate to achieve the poverty MDG target by 2020 (%) | Required agricultural funding growth rate to achieve CAADP 6% target rate by 2015 (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benin | 13.1 | 9.1 | 22.8 | 13.9 | 7.9 |
Burkina Faso | 7.1 | 5.9 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 9.1 |
Cape Verde | – | – | – | – | 11.2 |
Gambia | 14.4 | 8.6a
| 99.3 | 59.3a
| 19.6 |
Ghana | – | – | – | – | 21.7 |
Guinea | 10.3 | 7.5 | 33.5 | 26.5 | 12.3 |
Côte d’Ivoire | 14.8 | 9.0 | 62.2 | 25.1 | 27.0 |
Liberia | 26.1 | 14.6a
| 117.7 | 65.7a
| 27.0 |
Mali | 12.5 | 8.1 | 45.8 | 13.7 | 8.2 |
Niger | 11.9 | 9.0 | 25.1 | 18.2 | 26.5 |
Nigeria | – | 9.5a
| – | 23.8a
| 4.7b
|
Senegal | – | 6.8c
| – | 10.0c
| 7.6 |
Sierra Leone | – | – | – | – | 10.0 |
Togo | 9.6 | 6.9 | 74.2 | 43.1 | 35.4 |
Agricultural sector budget share at time of compact signing (%)a
| Estimated expenditure elasticity of agricultural growth | |
---|---|---|
Benin | 8.6 | 0.26 |
Burkina Faso | 21.2 | 0.24 |
Cape Verde | 1.3 | 0.11 |
Gambia | 6.6 | 0.15 |
Ghana | 4.9 | 0.15 |
Guinea | 13.7 | 0.25 |
Côte d'Ivoire | 3 | 0.25 |
Liberia | 6 | 0.22 |
Mali | 9.7 | 0.25 |
Niger | 22.3 | 0.53 |
Nigeria | 3.4 | 0.39 |
Senegal | 19.2 | 0.48 |
Sierra Leone | 2.8 | 0.24 |
Togo | 3.2 | 0.11 |
1.4 How Consistent Are Agricultural Investment Priorities and Related Growth and Poverty Outcomes Among ECOWAS Countries?
National Agricultural Investment Plans (NAIPs) | Comparable pre-compact growth scenario | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Expected agricultural growth rate (%) | Cost (million USD) | Expected agricultural growth rate (%) | Cost (million USD) | Cost ratio | |
[1] | [2] | [3] | [4] | [2]/[4] | |
Benin | 14.3 | 884.1 | 14.3 | 1276.2 | 0.69 |
Cape Verde | 6.9 | 96.4 | 6.0 | 51.6 | 1.87 |
Gambia | 8.0 | 296.6 | 8.6 | 1065.8 | 0.28 |
Ghana | 5.2 | 5479.5 | 6.9 | 3082.2 | 1.78 |
Guinea | 10.3 | 1601.2 | 10.3 | 222.0 | 7.21 |
Liberia | 9.9 | 947.7 | 9.4 | 149.5 | 6.34 |
Mali | 8.8 | 727.2 | 8.5 | 5376.4 | 0.14 |
Niger | 7.4 | 2457.0 | 6.4 | 2233.4 | 1.1 |
Nigeria | 21.0 | 7535.4 | 9.5 | 28563.1 | 0.26 |
Senegal | 9.7 | 2727.5 | 6.8 | 1771.1 | 1.54 |
Sierra Leone | 7.0 | 388.0 | 7.1 | 100.6 | 3.86 |
Togo | 6.8 | 947.2 | 6.7 | 989.3 | 0.96 |