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Studies in Comparative International Development
Erschienen in: Studies in Comparative International Development 3/2015

01.09.2015

Making or Breaking Politics: Social Conflicts and Party-System Change in Democratic Bolivia

verfasst von: Jennifer Cyr

Erschienen in: Studies in Comparative International Development | Ausgabe 3/2015

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Abstract

Why do only some social conflicts lead to party-system change? In Bolivia, the recent politicization of the regional autonomy movement represented a stark difference with how conflicts had affected party-system dynamics in the past. This study argues that social conflicts led to party-system change in Bolivia thanks largely to the strategies of ruling party elites. Motivated to preserve their position in power, elites had a menu of strategic options at their disposal to integrate, defer, or disregard demands from below. The study situates the recent regional conflict in Bolivia within the country’s longer history of mobilizational politics. It finds that ruling elites utilized different strategies of exclusion and inclusion to neutralize social conflict and preserve the status quo party system. They appropriated the regional autonomy demands as a last-ditch effort to remain electorally relevant in the face of successful party competition. In so doing, they helped transform the party system. Even from a position of electoral weakness and in the face of overwhelming demands from below, Bolivia’s elites shaped the transformative impact of those demands. This study relies upon a least-likely case design to highlight the impact elite agency can have in making or breaking politics under democracy.
Nächster Artikel Democracy and State Capacity: Complements or Substitutes?

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Fußnoten
1
See the debate about the role of agency versus structure in the formation of Chile’s post-authoritarian party system (Angell 2003; Torcal and Mainwaring 2003).
 
2
The author uses these two terms interchangeably. Status quo party elites are defined below.
 
3
Who counts as a status quo party elite is an empirical question. Elected individuals from a predominant party or group of parties are the status quo party elite. The author uses the competitive dynamic of the party system to distinguish the status quo elite (those seeking to preserve the existing dynamic) from the new elite (those helping forge a new dynamic through their electoral success). Boix (2003) adopts a similar relational logic, defining an “old” elite in relation to the “new” elite that emerges.
 
4
Scully (1992) identifies a third strategy: “straddling” an issue with the hopes that it will be resolved outside the political arena (Scully 1992, pp. 177–178). This study does not consider this kind of inaction, as its focus is on mobilizations that are so intense that elite inaction is untenable. The author conceptualizes disruptive mobilizations below.
 
5
Electoral success is defined by the electoral and party system in question. In presidential systems, for example, a competitive party is one whose presidential candidate is a top finisher in an election (Seawright 2012). Depending on how many parties operate within that system, a top finisher may be a second- or even third-place finisher.
 
6
Realignment is an enduring kind of party-system change, whereby the electoral balance among political parties shifts in a dramatic and lasting way (Seawright 2012, 51). The author demonstrates below that this kind of change occurs in Bolivia in 2005.
 
7
Of course, appropriation is not the only cause of party-system change. The argument presented here speaks specifically to instances of disruptive mobilization (Scully 1992) and why only some of these impact party-system dynamics.
 
8
In 2005, Poder Democrático y Social (Podemos) fielded the main opposition candidate. In 2009, it was a coalition of parties called Plan Progreso para Bolivia-Convergencia Nacional. A new coalition, Frente Amplio, formed for the 2014 election, although not all opposition candidates have formally joined.
 
9
In 1950, 4.5 % of rural landholders in Bolivia owned 70 % of the country’s arable land (Alexander 1958, p. 58). The Eastern half of the country remained largely untouched by this reform (Eaton 2007).
 
10
Prior to 1994, when no presidential candidate received more than 50 % of the votes, Congress chose one of the top three vote-getters as president. After 1994, only the top two recipients could become president.
 
11
MNR broke this promise. ADN in turn supported MIR’s candidate, who eventually became president.
 
12
Paz Zamora, as head of the revolutionary left party, previously refused to collaborate with former dictator Banzer, claiming that there were “rivers of blood” between them. To justify his 1989 alliance with Banzer, Paz said it was time to build bridges as a way to move on from the past.
 
13
By 2002, UCS captured only 5.5 % and Condepa only 0.35 % of the total national vote (CNE Online).
 
14
This happened to MIR upon joining a coalition with ADN in 1993.
 
15
For more on the plan, see Kohl 2003.
 
16
The two parties had longstanding animosities that inhibited coalition-building. They joined forces in 2002, however, to keep the MAS out of the governing majority.
 
17
On 17 October 2003, Sánchez de Lozada was forced to step down after the military violently ended protests against the government’s hydrocarbons policy. His Vice President, Carlos Mesa, assumed the presidency.
 
18
The call to re-found the constitution had a long trajectory in the country. It was one of the primary demands prior to the third disruptive mobilization in the early 1990s. Morales had made constitutional reform one of his 2005 campaign promises.
 
19
The author uses the term “former” to differentiate between the previous ruling party elite and the new ruling party elite that replaced them.
 
20
The MAS won a majority in the Assembly election, but it did not capture the two thirds of the seats necessary to push through its proposed changes unopposed. The MAS therefore fought for the final draft to be approved by a simple majority (BBC Mundo 2006b).
 
21
The MAS has made inroads in the media luna, thanks primarily to support from internal migrants who have moved from west to east, the urban poor, and small business owners.
 
22
Although the constituent assembly consisted of both MAS and “status quo” party elites, the draft was approved only after the status quo elites initiated a boycott of the assembly.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Making or Breaking Politics: Social Conflicts and Party-System Change in Democratic Bolivia
verfasst von
Jennifer Cyr
Publikationsdatum
01.09.2015
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Studies in Comparative International Development / Ausgabe 3/2015
Print ISSN: 0039-3606
Elektronische ISSN: 1936-6167
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12116-014-9161-3

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