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2016 | Buch

Introduction Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

Methodologies for Service Life Prediction of Buildings

With a Focus on Façade Claddings

verfasst von: Ana Silva, Jorge de Brito, Pedro Lima Gaspar

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Buchreihe : Green Energy and Technology

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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Über dieses Buch

Presenting an analysis of different approaches for predicting the service life of buildings, this monograph discusses various statistical tools and mathematical models, some of which have rarely been applied to the field. It explores methods including deterministic, factorial, stochastic and computational models and applies these to façade claddings. The models allow (i) identification of patterns of degradation, (ii) estimation of service life, (iii) analysis of loss of performance using probability functions, and (iv) estimation of service life using a probability distribution. The final chapter discusses the differences between the different methodologies and their advantages and limitations. The authors also argue that a better understanding of the service life of buildings results in more efficient building maintenance and reduced environmental costs. It not only provides an invaluable resource to students, researchers and industry professionals interested in service life prediction and sustainable construction, but is also of interest to environmental and materials scientists.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. Introduction
Abstract
This chapter addresses the motivation, scope, main objectives, and methodology of this book. Despite the number of studies regarding the service life and maintenance of buildings and components that have been published in recent decades, the application of such methodologies still present some limitations, mainly due to the complexity of the degradation phenomena and the lack of reliable tools to model them. This book intends to contribute to the study of the durability and expected service life of buildings, based on the working assumption that the service life of façade claddings (and other non-structural elements) can be modelled by various mathematical approaches with different levels of accuracy and complexity, leading to results with various degrees of richness of information.
Ana Silva, Jorge de Brito, Pedro Lima Gaspar
Chapter 2. Service Life and Durability of Assemblies
Abstract
This chapter intends to establish the first approach to the service life prediction methods applied to façades claddings, with three main objectives: i) perform an extensive survey regarding the concepts related with the service life and durability of building components, the methodologies and standardization related to this matter; ii) define the information collected during the field-work, to assess the physical and visual characterization and quantify the degradation condition of the claddings analysed; iii) the characterization of the samples collected during the fieldwork.
Ana Silva, Jorge de Brito, Pedro Lima Gaspar
Chapter 3. Deterministic Models
Abstract
This chapter presents the formulation and application of deterministic models for service life prediction of buildings and their components. These models are based on regression analysis, either simple or multiple, linear or non linear. Deterministic models are mathematical and/or statistical formulations that allow describing the relationship between the degradation factors and the façade’s condition. All regression techniques are based on the same assumptions, i.e. all methods intend to obtain the function that best fits a set of random data. Simple regression analysis allows obtaining the estimated service life of the façade claddings based on the evolution of the degradation of the overall sample over time. Multiple regression analysis (linear or nonlinear) allows estimating the estimated service life of façade claddings using an equation that includes all the variables that influence their degradation process.
Ana Silva, Jorge de Brito, Pedro Lima Gaspar
Chapter 4. Stochastic Models
Abstract
This chapter proposes the formulation of stochastic models (logistic regression analysis and Markov chains model), which allow analysing the claddings’ service life based on probabilistic distribution functions. These models allow assessing: i) the probability of each façade with a given degradation condition according to its age, its characteristics, and the environmental exposure condition; ii) the period of time with maximum probability of transition from a degradation condition to the next one (more severe); iii) the probability of each case study reaching the end of its service life over a given period of time.
Ana Silva, Jorge de Brito, Pedro Lima Gaspar
Chapter 5. Computational Models
Abstract
This chapter analyses the application of computational models to the service life prediction of façades claddings. The chapter uses two approaches, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and fuzzy systems (fuzzy logic). These models are able to find the non-linear function that best fits the dataset to be modelled, using a learning process based on experiences and examples, and to generalize it for new samples hitherto unknown. Computational methods allow obtaining the estimated service life of façades according to the variables considered as explanatory and statistically relevant to the degradation phenomena.
Ana Silva, Jorge de Brito, Pedro Lima Gaspar
Chapter 6. Factorial Models
Abstract
In this chapter, factorial modes are applied to the service life prediction of façade coatings, using two approaches: (A) a classic or deterministic approach, in which three scenarios are used in the quantification of the durability factors and sub-factors: a neutral scenario (where all the sub-factors are unitary); a scenario where the durability factors are quantified based on ISO 15686: 2011; and an optimized scenario, resulting from an iterative analysis, minimizing the deviations between the observed values and the values predicted by the factor method; in this approach, the sub-factors are quantified as absolute values; (B) a probabilistic or stochastic approach, where a probability distribution is adjusted to each durability factor; in this approach the estimated service life is also given by a probability distribution.
Ana Silva, Jorge de Brito, Pedro Lima Gaspar
Chapter 7. Comparative Analysis of Service Life Prediction Methods
Abstract
In this chapter, a comparative analysis of the different proposed models is performed. First the predictive ability of each model is evaluated through the comparison between the values obtained by each model and the data collected in field work, corresponding to the real degradation condition of the façades analysed. In a second step of the analysis, the sensitivity and specificity of each model is evaluated based on ROC curves, to analyse the accuracy of each model to correctly classify the case studies that may have reached the end of their service life. Once the predictive accuracy and the classification capabilities of each model are evaluated, a multi-criteria analysis is performed. This multi-criteria analysis encompasses different criteria that should be taken into account by different stakeholders to choose the best model for a specific application. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to analyse the best model for distinct decision-making profiles. Based on these analyses, some recommendations are made, referring the advantages and limitations of the models analysed and thus allowing a more rational and informed selection of a service life prediction model as far as the purpose of the model and the profile of the planner and the perspective of the user are concerned.
Ana Silva, Jorge de Brito, Pedro Lima Gaspar
Chapter 8. Conclusions
Abstract
This chapter presents the conclusion of this book, regarding the methodology adopted and the relevance and the limitations of the methodologies proposed. The results obtained are discussed, based on the various models studied and for the four types of claddings analysed. Finally, the main contributions of this book are analysed, evaluating the practical applications of the proposed models for the construction sector.
Ana Silva, Jorge de Brito, Pedro Lima Gaspar
Metadaten
Titel
Methodologies for Service Life Prediction of Buildings
verfasst von
Ana Silva
Jorge de Brito
Pedro Lima Gaspar
Copyright-Jahr
2016
Electronic ISBN
978-3-319-33290-1
Print ISBN
978-3-319-33288-8
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-33290-1

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