91. Methods of Traffic Impact Analysis for Large-Scale Residential and Commercial Construction Project

Traffic Impact Analysis (TIA) of the large-scale residential and commercial construction project plays an important role in keeping the balance between supply and demand of urban transportation and promoting rational urban development. Traffic demand forecast caused by the proposed project is one of most key tasks of TIA, which directly affect on evaluation results of TIA and traffic improvements. The traditional demand forecast model is macroscopic model which are mainly applied in the urban comprehensive transportation planning. Individual characteristics of trip behavior and microcosmic performances of urban road network are critical actions on the demand forecast of TIA, which are ignored in the macroscopic models. The purpose of this study was to develop the microcosmic traffic demand forecast model to predict the traffic demand caused by the proposed project. Integrating the tracking of moving vehicle with analogous analysis technique, the methods of the trip distribution and network assignment of TIA were put forward. Taking the traffic demand forecast of Daxin business building in Shenzhen as an example, the results indicate that the proposed microcosmic demand forecast method is feasible and effective to predict the traffic demand caused by the proposed project.