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Mathematical Models and Computer Simulations
Erschienen in: Mathematical Models and Computer Simulations 2/2020

01.03.2020

Modeling Political Preferences of Russian Users Exemplified by the Social Network Vkontakte

verfasst von: I. V. Kozitsin, A. G. Chkhartishvili, A. M. Marchenko, D. O. Norkin, S. D. Osipov, I.A. Uteshev, V. L. Goiko, R. V. Palkin, M. G. Myagkov

Erschienen in: Mathematical Models and Computer Simulations | Ausgabe 2/2020

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Abstract

Two models of machine learning are proposed for the automatic prediction of political views held by Russian users of the Vkontakte social network based on a microapproach to data analysis. The results are tested on various scientific and applied fields. One of them is monitoring of public opinion: based on testing a sample of 22 million digital fingerprints of adult user accounts, two estimates were made reflecting the political preferences of the users on the eve of the presidential election in 2018. When these estimates were used to develop a retrospective forecast of the elections, the average absolute errors were 12% and 19.4%, respectively; moreover, the first estimate was correct in ranking the first three candidates. In addition, an approach is presented to calibrate the parameters of mathematical models simulating the dynamics in opinions, namely, the quantities that determine the opinions held by users themselves. This approach is based on the estimates generated by the constructed algorithms.
Vorheriger Artikel Methods of Solving the Theoretic Game Models for Coordinating Interests in Regulating the Fishery Industry
Nächster Artikel On Monotonic Finite Difference Schemes

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Fußnoten
1
Noteworthy pages is the name of the field used in VKontakte.
 
5
For the full versions of the tables see [19], folder finished_BD2.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Modeling Political Preferences of Russian Users Exemplified by the Social Network Vkontakte
verfasst von
I. V. Kozitsin
A. G. Chkhartishvili
A. M. Marchenko
D. O. Norkin
S. D. Osipov
I.A. Uteshev
V. L. Goiko
R. V. Palkin
M. G. Myagkov
Publikationsdatum
01.03.2020
Verlag
Pleiades Publishing
Erschienen in
Mathematical Models and Computer Simulations / Ausgabe 2/2020
Print ISSN: 2070-0482
Elektronische ISSN: 2070-0490
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1134/S2070048220020088

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