Numerical simulations of CO₂ arrival times and reservoir pressure coincide with observations from the Ketzin pilot site, Germany

Numerical simulations of CO₂ migration for the period June 2008–December 2011 were performed based on a unique data set including a recently revised static geological 3D model of the reservoir formation of the Ketzin pilot site in Brandenburg, Germany. We applied the industrial standard ECLIPSE 100 and scientific TOUGH2-MP simulators for this task and implemented a workflow to allow for integration of complex model geometries from the Petrel software package into TOUGH2-MP. Definition of a near- and a far-field well area allowed us to apply suitable permeability modifiers, and thus to successfully match simulation results with pressure measurements and arrival times in observation wells. Coincidence was achieved for CO₂ arrival times with deviations in the range of 5.5–15 % and pressure values in the injection well CO2 Ktzi 201/2007 and the observation well CO2 Ktzi 202/2007 with even smaller deviations. It is shown that the integration of unique operational and observation data in the workflow improves the setup of the geological model. Within such an iteration loop model uncertainties are reduced and enable advanced predictions for future reservoir behaviour with regard to pressure development and CO₂ plume migration in the storage formation at the Ketzin pilot site supporting the implementation of monitoring campaigns and guiding site operation.