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2022 | Buch

Overcoming the Retributive Nature of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

verfasst von: Prof. Thomas L. Saaty, Prof. H. J. Zoffer, Prof. Luis G. Vargas, Prof. Amos Guiora

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Über dieses Buch

This book presents an interdisciplinary approach to conflict solution focusing on a very specific type of conflict, retributive conflicts . It is unique in the treatment of these and how relative measurement is used to find equilibrium solutions. The authors present an alternative process to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They do so in two ways that are different from past efforts. The first is by formally structuring the conflict and the second is the manner in which discussions were conducted and conclusions drawn. The approach will help create a solution and provide negotiators with a unique pathway to consider the thorny issues and corresponding concessions underlying the deliberations, together with their implementation.
The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) provides a way to conflict solution with the participation of negotiators for the parties. It is a positive approach that makes it possible to reason and express feelings and judgments with numerical intensities to derive priorities. With the assistance of panels of Israeli participants and Palestinian participants brought together in 2006 to 2017, AHP was applied for the first time in a group setting to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The process makes it clear that moderation in different degrees by both sides is essential to arrive at acceptable agreements on concessions proposed and agreed upon by both sides.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. Laying the Groundwork
Abstract
This book introduces a process to address the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. It does so in two ways that are different from past efforts. The first is by formally structuring the conflict, and the second is the way discussions are conducted and conclusions drawn. The effort is to create an objective, rather than subjective, model for resolving the conflict. As aspirational as that sounds, if not improbable as it may be, we believe that we have developed a workable model that is applicable to the conflict. We are confident because we have seen it in action; the model enables decision makers to engage in negotiations dramatically different from the traditional “zero-sum game” approach that has largely defined Israeli–Palestinian negotiations.
Thomas L. Saaty, H. J. Zoffer, Luis G. Vargas, Amos Guiora
Chapter 2. The Middle East Conflict: Origins, Evolution, and Attempts to Resolve
Abstract
When future Israeli Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion (born David Grün, he adopted the Hebrew name Ben-Gurion, after the Jewish leading figure Joseph ben Gurion of the Great Jewish Revolt against the Romans) arrived in Palestine in 1906, he ignored the fact that the land was populated by a non-Jewish majority. While the Land of Israel has powerful religious, historical, social, and cultural importance for Jews—religious and non-religious alike—the majority population in 1906 was Moslem. That is a fact. However, that fact does not diminish the 5000-year Biblical connection between the Land of Israel and the Jewish people. That, too, is a fact. These are not competing truths for both are true; these truths—while largely not in dispute—do not prevent an ongoing battle of the narrative. In many ways, that battle is at the root of the conflict; each side claims its historical superiority, each side stakes a claim that it “was here first,” and each side believes its claims to be the mantel of historical ascendency.
Thomas L. Saaty, H. J. Zoffer, Luis G. Vargas, Amos Guiora
Chapter 3. The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Beyond “Getting to Yes” in Conflict Resolution
Abstract
A challenge for dealing with controversies as intractable as the Israeli–Palestinian conflict is how to measure the influence intangible factors have on the conflict, which may even have more influence over the outcome than the tangible factors. Because the importance of such factors changes from one problem to another, and because intangible factors do not have known measurement scales, what is needed are relative scales, which in turn yield relative priorities, developed for each problem within the context of its own diversity of factors, and their influences on the actors involved and the concessions that they exchange.
Thomas L. Saaty, H. J. Zoffer, Luis G. Vargas, Amos Guiora
Chapter 4. Retributive Conflicts and the AHP: The Trading Mechanism
Abstract
The second kind of conflict is called retributive, with one or both parties harboring ill will toward each other (Saaty, ORiON 4:3–25, 1988). The idea is particularly relevant in long-drawn-out conflicts, which in the end fester and create almost ineradicable resentments. Here a party may be willing to give up much of its demands, if misfortune can be brought to its opponent through some means, including justice as dispensed by the court system. Should the enemy die, they may forgive and forget, or sometimes they may be resentful because they have not extracted their pound of flesh.
Thomas L. Saaty, H. J. Zoffer, Luis G. Vargas, Amos Guiora
Chapter 5. Structuring the Hierarchy to Make Trade-Offs: Benefits, Costs, Perceived Benefits, and Perceived Costs
Abstract
(a) They had no way to measure the importance and value of intangible factors which can dominate the process; (b) They had no overall unifying structure to organize and prioritize issues and concessions; (c) They had no mechanism to trade off concessions by measuring their worth; (d) They had no way to capture each party’s perception of the other side’s benefits and costs; (e) They had no way to provide confidence for the other party that the opposing party is not gaining more than they are; (f) They had no way to avoid the effect of intense emotions and innuendoes which negatively affect the negotiation process; and (g) They had no way to test the sensitivity and stability of the solution to changes in their judgments with respect to the importance of the factors that determined the best outcome. The AHP is about breaking a problem down and then aggregating the solutions of all the sub-problems into a conclusion. It facilitates decision-making by organizing perceptions, feelings, judgments, and memories into a framework that exhibits the forces that influence a decision.
Thomas L. Saaty, H. J. Zoffer, Luis G. Vargas, Amos Guiora
Chapter 6. Lessons Learned: The AHP Can Help Achieve Peace
Abstract
The approach will help create a solution to the conflict and provide negotiators with a unique pathway to consider the thorny issues and corresponding concessions underlying the deliberations, together with their implementation.
Thomas L. Saaty, H. J. Zoffer, Luis G. Vargas, Amos Guiora
Chapter 7. The Pittsburgh Principles: Fair and Equitable Trade-Offs
Abstract
In Chap. 4, we developed a model to identify trade-offs that could be used to build an agreement. The next step is finding out which trade-offs are feasible. We need to identify trade-offs that provide the same or almost the same (within a small percentage) gain/loss ratio for both parties. For example, the trade-off (I12, P6) yields the gain/loss ratios 1.062 in Table 5.​16 and 1.052 in Table 5.​17, for the Israelis and Palestinians, respectively. The values of those trade-offs are within one percent of each other. One could think that if no single sets of concessions can be mapped into trade-offs, bundles of two, three, and more concessions could be used. But in this case, the issues are complex enough to complicate life even more if bundles are created. But the possibility exists.
Thomas L. Saaty, H. J. Zoffer, Luis G. Vargas, Amos Guiora
Chapter 8. Implementation of the Principles: Getting Down to Earth
Abstract
While even a detailed implementation plan will require further discussion between the parties, the participants in our study, who are significant members of the Israeli and Palestinian communities, believe that the level of detail presented below will facilitate agreement on these issues, even if some modifications are required. To develop each of the principles into a working model, we follow the same process used to arrive at the principles described in Chap. 7.
Thomas L. Saaty, H. J. Zoffer, Luis G. Vargas, Amos Guiora
Chapter 9. The Palestinian Refugee Problem: Compensation and Reparation Program
Abstract
We are not interested in studying how and why those departures took place. Our sole objective is to study the refugee problem in the context of Principle 7 of the Pittsburgh Declaration of Principles—August 2011.
Thomas L. Saaty, H. J. Zoffer, Luis G. Vargas, Amos Guiora
Chapter 10. Strategic Communications: Communicating Internally and Externally
Abstract
Over the course of both official and unofficial (Track II) negotiations, one of the most critical points of controversy has been the articulation, or lack of, regarding the desired end goal. This is true with respect to both overarching strategic negotiations and tactical implementation negotiations whose purpose was to resolve on-the-ground issues. The challenges are relevant to communicating with different audiences and publics. One of the most challenging aspects of the negotiating process—whether strategic or tactical—was recognizing the seminal importance of communication. To address this issue, this chapter is divided into the following sections: 1. Introduction; 2. National Leadership; 3. Drafters–Implementers Communication; and 4. Final Thoughts.
Thomas L. Saaty, H. J. Zoffer, Luis G. Vargas, Amos Guiora
Chapter 11. Looking Ahead
Abstract
As these lines are written (between December 2020 and January 2021), Israel was planning its fourth election in two years. The election, held on March 23, 2021, can be boiled down to one, primary, issue: “Bibi yes/Bibi no.” The reference is to Prime Minister Netanyahu and whether he will continue to be Israel’s Prime Minister, regardless of the fact he is under indictment for bribery, violation of public interest, and fraud. To date, he has not been investigated for his role in a far more serious matter, involving the sale of German nuclear submarines to Egypt. Israeli law does not require an indicted Prime Minister to resign.
Thomas L. Saaty, H. J. Zoffer, Luis G. Vargas, Amos Guiora
Metadaten
Titel
Overcoming the Retributive Nature of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
verfasst von
Prof. Thomas L. Saaty
Prof. H. J. Zoffer
Prof. Luis G. Vargas
Prof. Amos Guiora
Copyright-Jahr
2022
Electronic ISBN
978-3-030-83958-1
Print ISBN
978-3-030-83957-4
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-83958-1

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