Politics of Swings

Yoshihiko Noda won the party leadership election of the incumbent Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in September 2011, half a year after the great East Japan earthquake and the ensuing tsunami and nuclear power plant disaster of March 11, 2011.1 Noda became the third DPJ primeminister of Japan. He has survived longer as a prime minister than his five predecessors, Shinzō Abe, Yasuo Fukuda, Tarō Asō, Yukio Hatoyama, and Naoto Kan. But one common quality marks these six prime ministers, Liberal Democrat or Democrat, as their popularity rankings share a similar evolution: initial popularity usually registers between 50 to 60 percent and then falls at a steady rate of about five percent per month until about the one-year point when the popularity of each leader reaches its nadir of 10 to 15 per cent—at this time another prime minister enters as if through an automatic revolving door.2 It is said that Noda has survived slightly longer in part because of his success in legislating a tax hike. As of October 2012, his popularity ratings hover around 20–25 percent. But the trend looks the same. Sooner or later another prime minister will make his entrance. Rather than trying to give some explanations of this phenomenon here, let me try first to summarize what happened to Japanese politics as it evolved in 2012. After that, I will provide some general evaluations.3