Predicting the Urban Spread Using Spatio-morphological Models

This paper proposes a new modelling approach which deals with the spatial spreading of built-up areas. The aim is twofold: first, to predict the broad outlines of a built-up areas extension on a regional scale, secondly, to provide decision makers with a tool which allows them to explore spatial consequences of different urbanization policies. Our spatial modelling is similar to cellular automata but differs in the use of image processing method and mathematical morphology algorithms. In this model, the spatial spread process depends on both proximity and morphology of the built-up areas located in a space whose configuration also determines the shape of the spatial spread. These features explain the "spatio morphological" qualifier given to this model. The distinctive features of the both methods will be discussed before focusing the attention on the spatio-morphological modelling and detailing the stages of the approach. The model will be then applied to simulate the built-up areas spread on a coastal region of the Southern France.