nach oben

Environmental Earth Sciences

Erschienen in:

01.04.2016 | Original Article

Probability of flooding and vulnerability assessment in the Ajay River, Eastern India: implications for mitigation

verfasst von: Sujay Bandyopadhyay, Prasanta Kumar Ghosh, Narayan Chandra Jana, Subhajit Sinha

Erschienen in: Environmental Earth Sciences | Ausgabe 7/2016

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config

KI-gestützte Suche

Aus

Abstract

Estimation of flood intensity for a desired return period is of prime importance for flood management through flood plain zoning. Flood frequency analysis enables estimation of the probability of occurrence of a certain hydrological event of practical importance by fitting a probability distribution to one that is empirically obtained from recorded annual maximum discharge and/or stage data. This case study considers the use of four probability distributions, namely Gumbel’s extreme value distribution (EV-I), extreme value distribution-III (EV-III), log-normal (LN) and Log-Pearson Type III (LPT-3) in flood modelling of monsoon-dominated Ajay River and illustrates the applicability of goodness of fit (GOF) and D-index tests procedures in identifying which distributional model is best for the specific data. Twenty-five years (1985–2009) of existing and estimated annual peak discharge (Q _max) data have been used for analyzing the trend of flood occurrence. After identifying the best fit model, the peak gauge height data (h _max) are then analysed combining with geographic information systems (GIS) for predicting flood affected area and preparing inundation map at a specific return period (T). Results of the study showed that the LPT-3 distribution is better suited for modelling flood data for Ajay at Nutanhat in West Bengal. The computed Q _max for LPT-3 distribution are slightly higher as compared to the results obtained by EV-I, EV-III and LN which are used for vulnerability assessment. The analysis also predicts that the affected area will be ranging from 235 to 290 km² in near future (at 25- to 200-year T). These findings provide clear picture for the pattern of hydrological fluxes and aftermath in the next decades in lower Ajay River Basin (ARB). Sustainable planning and developmental measures that consider the modelled pattern of hydrological fluxes of the study area were recommended for decision making.

Vorheriger Artikel Aeolian sand transport above three desert surfaces in northern China with different characteristics (shifting sand, straw checkerboard, and gravel): field observations

Nächster Artikel Green roof benefits for reducing flood risk at the catchment scale

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Agarwal A, Narain S (1991) Floods, flood plains and environmental myths. State of India’s Environment-3, Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi

Baker VR (2006) Paleoflood hydrology in a global context. Catena 66:161–168CrossRef

Baker VR, Kochel RC, Patton PC (1979) Long-term flood frequency analysis using geological data. In: The hydrology of areas of low precipitation (Proceedings of the Canberra symposium, December 1979). IAHS-AISH Publ. No. 128, pp 3–9

Bandyopadhyay S, Jana NC (2010) Severity of embankment breaching (EMB) in the Lower Ajay Basin: an environmental threat. Indian J Geomorphol 15(1–2):1–18

Bandyopadhyay S, Sinha S, Jana NC, Ghosh D (2014) Entropy application to evaluate the stability of landscape in Kunur River Basin, West Bengal, India. Curr Sci 107(11):1842–1853

Banerjee, SN, Bhattacharya A (1973) A report on the quaternary geomorphology and geology of the Ajay-Bhagirathi triangle, Birbhum-Murshidabad districts, West Bengal. Unpublished progress report, GSI

Basumallick S, Mukherjee PC (1999) Sediment mixing pattern of the River Ajay with the Bhagirathi-Hooghly River System. J Geol Soc India 53:97–102

Benson MA (1968) Uniform flood-frequency estimating methods for federal agencies. Water Resour Res 4(5):891–908CrossRef

Bhattacharya AK (1972) A study of the Ajay River sediments. In: Bagchi K (ed) The Bhagirathi-Hooghly Basin (Proceedings of the interdisciplinary symposium). Calcutta University, Calcutta, pp 18–32

Bhattacharya AK (2009) Channel Patterns, depositional behavior and sediment composition of a Tropical River, Northeast India: a study from source to sink. In: Presented at the AAPG Hedberg conference on variations in fluvial-deltaic and coastal reservoirs deposited in tropical environments, 29 April–2 May 2009, Jakarta, Indonesia

Bhattacharya A, Banerjee SN (1979) Quaternary geology and geomorphology of the Ajay-Bhagirathi Valley, Birbhum and Murshidabad districts, West Bengal. Indian J Earth Sci 6(1):91–102

Bhattacharya D, Goswami DC (2002) Flood hydrology and basin environment of Barak River, Assam. In: Basu S (ed) Changing environmental scenario of the Indian subcontinent. ACB Publications, Kolkata, pp 359–365

Bose UK (1958) A study on the floods in West Bengal and west Uttar Pradesh during September–October 1956. Indian J Meteorol Geophys 9(1):23–34

Bose NK (1965) Necessity of a river board for the Ajoy: a note. Indian J Power River Valley Dev 15:37–40

Bose NK (1970) Rivers of West Bengal and their control. In: Chatterjee AB et al (eds) West Bengal (Publication of the Geographical Institute. Presidency College, Calcutta), Firma KLM, Calcutta, pp 59–65

Burn DH, Arnell NW (1993) Synchronicity in global flood responses. J Hydrol 44:381–404CrossRef

Chapman GP, Rudra K (2007) Water as foe, water as friend: lessons from Bengal’s millennium flood. J South Asian Dev 2(1):19–49CrossRef

Chatterjee SN (2008) Water resources, conservation and management. Atlantic Publishers and Distributors (P) Ltd., New Delhi, pp 45–52

Chow VT (1964) Handbook of applied hydrology. McGraw-Hill, New York

Chow VT, Maidment DR, Mays LW (2010) Applied hydrology. Tata McGraw Hill Education Private Limited, New Delhi, pp 350–410

Cunnane C (1978) Unbiased plotting positions—a review. J Hydrol 37:205–222CrossRef

Das S (1969) Report on the geohydrological investigations in Western Burdwan and Birbhum districts, West Bengal. Unpublished progress report, GSI: 1968FS

Das US (1983) A study of the rainfall distribution of the unprecedented September 1978 floods in West Bengal with particular reference to the contribution from Damodar catchment. Mausam 34(1):93–100

Dhar S (2010) Investigation into the effects of climate change for the Ajay River Basin using hydroinformatics. J Manag Public Policy 2(1):22–36

Dhar ON, Nandargi S (2003) Hydrometeorological aspects of floods in India. Nat Hazards 28(1):1–33CrossRef

Frances F, Salas JD, Boes DC (1994) Flood frequency analysis with systematic and historical or palaeoflood data based on the two-parameter general extreme value models. Water Resour Res 30(6):1653–1664CrossRef

Ghosh SC (2002) The Raniganj Coal Basin: an example of an Indian Gondwana rift. Sediment Geol 147:155–176CrossRef

Gorokhovich Y, Voustianiouk A (2006) Accuracy assessment of the processed SRTM-based elevation data by CGIAR using field data from USA and Thailand and its relation to the terrain characteristics. Remote Sens Environ 104:409–415CrossRef

GSI: Geological Survey of India (1999) Geology and mineral resources of the states of India. Pt. 1, Misc. Pub., West Bengal, p 30

Guha-Spair D, Hargitt D, Hoyois P (2004) Thirty years of natural disaster 1974–2003: the numbers. Presses universitaires de Louvain, Belgium

Gumbel EJ (1941) The return period of flood flows. Ann Math Stat 12(2):163–190CrossRef

Haan CT (1977) Statistical methods in hydrology. The Iowa State University Press, Ames, pp 141–143

Hazarika UM (2010) Fluvial environment of Jiadhal River Basin, Dhemaji district, Assam. Int J Ecol Environ Sci 36(4):271–275

Hosking JRM, Wallis JR (1987) Parameter and quantile estimation for the generalized Pareto distribution. Technometrics 29(3):339–349CrossRef

Kadam P, Sen D (2012) Flood inundation simulation in Ajoy River using MIKEFLOOD. ISH J Hydraul Eng 18:129–141CrossRef

Kale VS (1998) Monsoon floods in India: a hydro-geomorphic perspective. In: Kale VS (ed) Flood studies in India, Geological Society of India, Memoir 41, Bangalore, pp 229–256

Kale VS (2003) The spatio-temporal aspects of Monsoon floods in India: implications for flood hazard management. In: Gupta HK (ed) Disaster management. University Press, Hyderabad, pp 22–47

Kale VS (2004) Floods in India: their frequency and pattern. In: Valdiya KS (ed) Coping with natural hazards: Indian context. Orient Longman, Hyderabad, pp 91–103

Kale VS (2014) Is flooding in South Asia getting worse and more frequent? Singap J Trop Geogr 35:161–178CrossRef

Kale VS, Mishra S, Enzel Y, Ely L, Rajaguru SN, Baker VR (1993) Flood geomorphology of the Indian peninsular rivers. J. Appl. Hydrol. 6(1–4):49–55

Kar M, Goswami DC (1997) Evaluating alternative techniques for flood frequency analysis: a case study on the Kopili River, Assam. Indian J Geomorphol 2(1):71–90

Khaliq M, Ouarda T, Ondo J, Gachon P, Bobee B (2006) Frequency analysis of a sequence of dependent and/or non-stationary hydro-meteorological observations: a review. J Hydrol 329(3–4):534–552CrossRef

Kidson R, Richards KS (2005) Flood frequency analysis: assumptions and alternatives. Prog Phys Geogr 29(3):392–410CrossRef

Knox JC (2000) Sensitivity of modern and Holocene floods to climate change. Quat Sci Rev 19:439–457CrossRef

Knox JC, Kundzewicz ZW (1997) Extreme hydrological events, palaeo-information and climate change. Hydrol Sci 42(5):765–779CrossRef

Kumar V, Jain SK, Singh Y (2010) Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrol Sci J 55(4):484–496CrossRef

MacDonald N (2013) Reassessing flood frequency for the River Trent through the inclusion of historical flood information since AD 1320. Hydrol Res 44:215–233CrossRef

Macklin MG, Rumsby BT (2007) Changing climate and extreme floods in the British uplands. Trans Inst Br Geogr 32:168–186CrossRef

Madsen H, Rasmussen PF, Rosbjerg D (1997) Comparison of annual maximum series and partial duration series methods for modeling extreme hydrologic events. 1. At-site modelling. Water Resour Res 33(4):747–757CrossRef

Majumdar SC (1938) River problems in Bengal. Proc Natl Inst Sci India 4(4):441–475

Mirza MMQ (2011) Climate change, flooding in South Asia and implication. Reg Environ Change 11(Suppl 1):S95–107CrossRef

Mohalanobish RN (1968) Ajoy—the river of sorrow. River Behav Control 3:61–64

Mohapatra PK, Singh RD (2003) Flood management in India. Nat Hazards 28:131–143CrossRef

Mujumdar PP, Kumar DN (2012) Floods in a changing climate: hydrologic modeling. Cambridge University Press, UK, p 72CrossRef

Mukerji A, Chatterjee C, Raghuwanshi NS (2009) Flood forecasting using ANN, neuro-fuzzy, and neuro-GA models. J Hydrol Eng 14(6):647–652CrossRef

Mukhopadhyay S (2009) Sand splay as a disaster in the lower Ajay River Basin of Eastern India. East Geogr 15(1):51–56

Mukhopadhyay S (2010) A geo-environmental assessment of flood dynamics in lower Ajoy River inducing sand splay problem in Eastern India. Ethiop J Environ Stud Manag 3(2):96–110CrossRef

Mukhopadhyay M, Mitra N (2000) Role of flood in changing micromorphology and its management: a case study of 1995’s flood of River Ajay, Eastern India. In: Jha VC (ed) Geomorphology and remote sensing. ACB Publications, Calcutta, pp 135–140

Mukhopadhyay S, Mukherjee M (2005) Hydrological characteristics of flood: a study in the lower Ajay River. In: Rahim KMB, Mukhopadhyay M, Sarkar D (eds) River floods: a socio-technical approach. ACB Publications, Calcutta, pp 51–58

Naden PS (1992) Analysis and use of peaks-over-threshold data in flood estimation. In: Saul AJ (ed) Floods and Flood Management. Springer, Netherlands, pp 131–143CrossRef

Narula PL, Acharyya SK, Banerjee J (2000) Seismotectonics atlas of India and its environs. Geological Survey of India, Kolkata, pp 26–27

Nath SK, Roy D, Thingbaijam KKS (2008) Disaster mitigation and management for West Bengal, India—an appraisal. Curr Sci 94(7):858–864

NBSS: National Bureau of Soil Survey (1992) Soils of West Bengal for optimising land use. NBSS Publ. 27b, Nagpur

NIH (1999–2000) Application of artificial neural network in flood studies of Ajay River Basin, Report No. TR/BR-5/1999-2000. National Institute of Hydrology (NIH), Roorkee

Niyogi M (1985) Groundwater resources of the Ajay Basin. In: Mukhopadhyay SC (ed) Geographical mosaic. Modern Book Agency Pvt Limited, Calcutta, pp 165–183

Niyogi M (1987) Flood frequency and magnitude analyses in the Ajay Basin. Indian J Landsc Syst Ecol Stud 10(1):22–29

Niyogi M (1988) Spatio-temporal analysis of run-off in the Ajay Basin. Geogr Rev India 50(2):58–66

Niyogi M (1991) Estimation of groundwater recharge from the baseflow of the Ajay. Geogr Rev India 53(2):33–44

Niyogi M (1998) Water resources of the Ajay River Basin: a study towards sustainable development. In: Sharma HS, Chattopadhyay S (eds) Sustainable development—issues and case studies. Concept Publishing Company, New Delhi, pp 205–219

Niyogi D, Sarkar SK, Mallik S (1968) Geomorphic mapping in the plains of West Bengal, India. In: Chatterjee SP, Das Gupta SP (eds) Selected papers of the 21st international geographical congress India National Committee for Geography, Calcutta, vol 1, pp 89–94

Panja S, Basak B, Chakraborty S, Roychowdhury S, Rajaguru SN (2002) Preliminary geoarchaeological studies in West Bengal. Man Environ 27(2):45–60

Pearson K (1930) Tables for statisticians and biometricians. 3rd Ed. Part I, The biometric Lab., Univ. College, Cambridge Univ. Press, London

Perumal M, Sahoo B (2007) Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall. Nat Hazards 42(2):415–422CrossRef

Port Commissioners (1974) The River Ajay—a study of hydrological study/character. Unpublished report, Port Commissioners, Calcutta

Ramaswamy C (1987) Meteorological aspects of severe floods in India, 1923–1979. MMH No. 10, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Rosbjerg D (1985) Estimation in partial duration series with independent and dependent peak values. J Hydrol 76:183–195CrossRef

Roy S (2012) Locating archaeological sites in the Ajay River Basin, West Bengal: an approach employing the remote sensing and geographical information system. India Geospatial Forum

Roy Choudhury S (2002) Understanding archaeological settlements in the dynamic landscapes of Ajay River Valley. In: Sengupta G, Panja S (eds) Archaeology of Eastern India: new perspectives. Centre for Archaeological Studies and Training, Eastern India, Kolkata, pp 125–141

Roychoudhury S, Rajaguru SN (2010) Excavations at Mangalkot 2009–2010: preliminary geoarchaeological investigations. Pratna Samiksha 1:39–48

Samanta M (2008) Geoarchaeological investigations in the Middle Ajay Basin, West Bengal. Dissertation, Deccan College (Post Graduate and Research Institute), Pune, India

Sanyal J, Lu XX (2009) Ideal location for flood shelter: a geographic information system approach. J Flood Risk Manag 2(4):262–271CrossRef

Sanyal J, Carbonneau P, Densmore AL (2013) Hydraulic routing of extreme floods in a large ungauged river and the estimation of associated uncertainties: a case study of the Damodar River, India. Nat Hazards 66:1153–1177CrossRef

Sharifi F, Samadi SZ, Wilson C (2012) Causes and consequences of recent floods in the Golestan catchments and Caspian Sea regions of Iran. Nat Hazards 61:533–550CrossRef

Singh VP, Strupczewski WG (2002) On the status of flood frequency analysis. Hydrol Process 16:3737–3740CrossRef

Singh LP, Parkash B, Singhvi AK (1998) Evolution of the lower gangetic plain landforms and soils in West Bengal, India. Catena 33:75–104CrossRef

Sinha R (2008) Flood hazard: a GIS based approach. Geogr You 8:6–11

Solaiman TA (2011) Uncertainty estimation of extreme precipitations under climatic change: a non-parametric approach. Dissertation, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Western Ontario, Canada

Stedinger JR, Cohn TA (1986) Flood frequency analysis with historical and paleoflood information. Water Resour Res 22:785–793CrossRef

Stedinger JR, Vogel RM (1993) Frequency analysis of extreme events. Handbook of hydrology, chapter 18. McGraw-Hill, New York

Subramanya K (1994) Engineering hydrology, 2nd edn. Tata McGraw-Hill Publishing Company Limited, New Delhi, pp 245–264

Syvitski JPM, Brakenridge RG (2013) Causation and avoidance of catastrophic flooding along the Indus River, Pakistan. GSA Today 23:4–10CrossRef

The Institution of Engineers Australia (IEA) (1987) Australian rainfall and runoff: a guide to flood estimation. Institution of Engineers Australia, Canberra

Vaill JE (2000) Analysis of the magnitude and frequency of floods in Colorado. U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Investigation Report: 99-4190

Valdiya KS (2011) Bracing for flood hazards. Curr Sci 101(1):16–17

Wallis R, Wood EF (1985) Relative accuracy of log Pearson type III procedure. J Hydraul Div: ASCE 3(7):1043–1056CrossRef

Wang Y, Li Z, Tang Z, Zeng G (2011) A GIS-based spatial multi criteria approach for flood risk assessment in the Dangting valley region, Hunan, Central China. Water Resour Manag 25:3465–3484CrossRef

Weibull W (1939) A statistical theory of the strength of materials. Ingeniors Vetenskaps Akademien (The Royal Swedish Institute for Engineering Research), Proceedings, vol 51, pp 5–45

Wheater H, Evans E (2009) Land use, water management and future flood risk. Land Use Policy 26:S251–S264CrossRef

Wolman MG, Miller JP (1960) Magnitude and frequency of forces in geomorphic processes. J Geol 68:54–74CrossRef

Zhang J (2002) Powerful goodness-of-fit tests based on the likelihood ratio. J R Stat Soc (Ser B) 64(2):281–294CrossRef

Titel: Probability of flooding and vulnerability assessment in the Ajay River, Eastern India: implications for mitigation
verfasst von: Sujay Bandyopadhyay
Prasanta Kumar Ghosh
Narayan Chandra Jana
Subhajit Sinha
Publikationsdatum: 01.04.2016
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erschienen in: Environmental Earth Sciences / Ausgabe 7/2016
Print ISSN: 1866-6280
Elektronische ISSN: 1866-6299
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-5297-y

Springer Professional

Abstract

Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu Ihrer Lizenz zu erhalten.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Springer Professional "Technik"

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 7/2016

A comparative study for estimation of wave height using traditional and hybrid soft-computing methods

Ambient air metallic elements (Mn, Fe, Zn, Cr, Cu, and Pb) pollutants sources study at a rural resident area near Taichung Thermal Power Plant and Industrial Park: 6-month observations

Enzymatic activities and microbial biomass in peanut field soil as affected by the foliar application of tebuconazole

Microseismicity and its time–frequency characteristics of the left bank slope at the Jinping first-stage hydropower station during reservoir impoundment

210Pb dating and trace metal accumulation study of sediment cores from Navegaon Bandh and Bodhalkasa Lakes, Gondia District, Maharashtra, India

Impact of particle transfer on flow properties of crushed mudstones