Real Exchange Rates and Growth after the EU Accession: The Problems of Transfer and Capital Inflow Absorption

The EU enlargement to the East is probably one of the biggest challenges that Europe will have to face during the next 5–10 years. Ten potential future member states represent more than 100 million consumers. Although the GDP produced in these countries accounts today only for a small fraction of the EU GDP, the future growth potential remains indisputable. This has already been demonstrated in the dynamic growth of trade between the EU and Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), albeit from a very modest initial level. Last but not least, the eastern enlargement may be seen in a broad historic sense as a re-unification of two parts of Europe once divided by the iron curtain, a re-unification that should promote stability, security and prosperity throughout Europe.