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Erschienen in:
2020 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
54. Reconstruction of Hydraulic Data by Machine Learning
verfasst von : Corentin J. Lapeyre, Nicolas Cazard, Pamphile T. Roy, Sophie Ricci, Fabrice Zaoui
Erschienen in: Advances in Hydroinformatics
Verlag: Springer Singapore
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Abstract
Numerical simulation models associated with hydraulic engineering take a wide array of data into account to produce predictions: rainfall contribution to the drainage basin (characterized by soil nature, infiltration capacity and moisture), current water height in the river, topography, nature and geometry of the river bed, etc. This data is tainted with uncertainties related to an imperfect knowledge of the field, measurement errors on the physical parameters calibrating the equations of physics, an approximation of the latter, etc. These uncertainties can lead the model to overestimate or underestimate the flow and height of the river. Moreover, complex assimilation models often require numerous evaluations of physical solvers to evaluate these uncertainties, limiting their use for some real-time operational applications.
For problems with high uncertainty and vast amounts of measurements available such as hydraulics, a new emerging paradigm has been gaining traction in recent years, namely the data-driven approach. Based mostly on machine learning techniques, these optimization techniques aim to build fast surrogate models entirely inferred from the data. Indeed, a large variety of function classes are available today in this context, and can be rapidly tested to find those who best match the underlying trends in the data. In this approach, these trends are therefore not hand-designed by physicists, but selected based on performance on a given dataset.
In this study, we explore the possibility of building a predictor for river height at an observation point based on drainage basin time series data. An array of data-driven techniques is assessed for this task, including statistical models, machine learning techniques and deep neural network approaches. These are assessed on several metrics, offering an overview of the possibilities related to hydraulic time-series. An important finding is that for the same hydraulic quantity, the best predictors vary depending on whether the data is produced using a physical model or real observations.