Reshaping Metropolitan America

Development Trends and Opportunities to 2030

verfasst von: Prof. Arhur C. Nelson

Verlag: Island Press/Center for Resource Economics

Buchreihe : Metropolitan Planning + Design

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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Über dieses Buch

Nearly half the buildings that will be standing in 2030 do not exist today. That means we have a tremendous opportunity to reinvent our urban areas, making them more sustainable and livable for future generations. But for this vision to become reality, the planning community needs reliable data about emerging development trends.

Arthur C. Nelson delivers that resource in Reshaping Metropolitan America, providing statistics about changes in population, jobs, housing, nonresidential space, and other key factors. Most importantly, he shows the benefits of reshaping America in ways that meet emerging market demands, and then outlines a policy agenda to do so. Reshaping Metropolitan America does not simply make predictions; it shows that Americans want better communities, what the benefits are, and how to get there.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Introduction

Abstract

More than $20 trillion will be spent on reshaping America’s metropolitan areas between 2010 and 2030. Because of the Great Recession, nearly all of it will be spent after about 2015. The amount of new and replaced or repurposed nonresidential space nationally will nearly equal all the space existing in 2010—nearly eighty billion square feet. New and replaced residential units will be about a quarter of all units existing in 2010—more than thirty million units.

Arhur C. Nelson

1. Major Market Trends and Demographic Changes

Abstract

In recent years, home ownership has become a feature of the American Dream. This was not always the case. Historically, the American Dream was characterized as people being rewarded fairly for their effort and each new generation being better off than the prior one (Adams 1931). The dream has evolved to include home ownership for reasons that are not entirely clear (Rohe and Watson 2007). Fulfillment of that part of the dream has been largely achieved. Since the end of World War II, home ownership in the United States rose from 55 percent in 1950¹ to 69 percent in 2004.² By 2030, however, it will may be less attainable or even desirable. Reasons for this include rising energy costs, falling incomes, lagging employment, shifting wealth to upper classes, and tighter mortgage underwriting requirements. Added to these reasons are market trends including key population and sweeping generational changes, the rise of a new housing market, and important nonresidential trends. These trends and changes will lead to a new America in 2030.

Arhur C. Nelson

2. What Americans Want

Abstract

America may be in for a rude awakening over the next few decades. The Baby Boomers came into their own during the 1980s through the 2000s. Their affluence and need for space was matched by developers who provided low-cost products across America’s landscape. Boomers accounted for about three-quarters of the demand for all new housing during this period, and America became a truly suburban nation.

Arhur C. Nelson

3. Households and Housing

Abstract

As America’s population is changing, so will its household composition and housing needs. With their buying power and need for space to raise growing families, Baby Boomers dominated the market for new homes from the 1980s through the 2000s. Tens of millions of large homes on large lots were built to meet their needs, and they could afford them. Those days are gone, never to return. Instead, future generations of households and aging Boomers themselves will want something different from what they had in the past. The next generation of households will be more racially and ethnically diverse, earn less income, and have fewer opportunities for home ownership than prior generations.

Arhur C. Nelson

4. Space Needs for Jobs

Abstract

As America’s housing market will be transformed, so will its nonresidential spaces such as offices and shopping—maybe more than some might think. In most urbanized areas, nonresidential space accounts for a third or more of the built environment (excluding rights-of-way and other public spaces) and often accounts for half or more of the taxable value. It is also prone to more rapid depreciation, potential blight, and renewal than residential development.

Arhur C. Nelson

5. The Reshape America Index

Abstract

In this book I show that by 2030, one-quarter to one-third of America’s 143 million households will want the very kinds of options provided in mixed-use, amenity-rich, transit-accessible options that commercial corridors and nodes can provide. Because about ten million households have those options now, the nation will need to increase its supply by at least twenty-five million to meet demand in 2030. In effect, if all new homes built in America between 2010 and 2030 were built in those locations, demand for this option would still not be met.

Arhur C. Nelson

6. The Benefits of Reshaping Metropolitan America

Abstract

What if Americans got what they wanted? To be more specific, what if the one-quarter to one-third of Americans who want to be able to walk or bike to work and for errands lived in communities that had this option? What if the 25–33 percent of Americans who want the option to walk or bike to transit (other than conventional bus) lived in places where they could? What if the half of Americans who prefer to live in a smart growth community instead of a sprawling one actually did? To achieve this by 2030, virtually all new development between 2010 and 2030 would need to be in communities providing these options. If this were to happen, what would be the benefits?

Arhur C. Nelson

7. Agenda to Reshape Metropolitan America

Abstract

America’s population is getting older and more diverse, and these changes will influence housing needs. The Baby Boom generation shocked the housing system between about 1980 and 2005 by needing more new housing units than any previous generation. Because of their income and growing space needs, and the availability of cheap housing in the suburbs, their needs could be met easily through the construction of single-family homes on large lots. They accounted for three-quarters of the demand for new housing during this period, causing suburbs to expand as never before, but this trend has run its course. Because of demographic changes, the new demand for this kind of housing may only be a small fraction of the total demand to 2030.

Arhur C. Nelson

Backmatter

Titel: Reshaping Metropolitan America
verfasst von: Prof. Arhur C. Nelson
Verlag: Island Press/Center for Resource Economics
Electronic ISBN: 978-1-61091-222-8
Print ISBN: 978-1-59726-361-0
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5822/978-1-61091-222-8