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Erschienen in:
2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
16. Risk Discovery: Using Patterns to Spot the Un-Spottable
verfasst von : Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
Erschienen in: The Tyranny of Uncertainty
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
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Abstract
The use of patterns can improve risk management practices if at any moment in time we can predict a new pattern and react accordingly. However, the dynamic dimension of systems presents a challenge in the accurate identification and classification of patterns. For this reason, the dynamic characteristics of a system are often discovered too late within the development process for effective remediation. To overcome this challenge, we use emulative deconstruction to mathematically reproduce the dynamic behavior and predictively identify the singularities. Through the use of perturbation theory, we are able to breakdown the environment or system into its constituents and create the dynamic signatures necessary to predictively emulate system behaviors under various conditions. This affords system stakeholders considerable insights—providing the ability to discover system limits, identify chaotic boundaries, and proactively prepare for action to systemically face an eventual crisis.