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A range of authorities has argued recently that rather than the 2007–08 global financial crisis representing a major, but one-off, downturn, mature economies have now entered a period of ‘secular stagnation’ where underlying productivity growth rates have fallen to very low rates. Growth has only been sustained by various bubbles and is now likely to slump to low rates for the foreseeable future. Debates have largely focused on the US but the concept of secular stagnation in the context of UK requires examination. Before the crisis the UK economy saw particularly strong property price booms and credit expansion, with demand sustained by what has been termed ‘privatized Keynesianism’; the post-crisis UK economy is now experiencing prolonged stagnation in productivity and growth again appears to be driven by debt-financed private consumption.
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Carney, M. (2016). The spectre of monetarism. Roscoe Lecture. Available at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2016/speech946.pdf.
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- Secular Stagnation: The New Normal for the UK?
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