2007 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
Simple Decision Models
Erschienen in: Game Theory
Verlag: Springer London
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Suppose we are faced with the problem of making a decision. One approach to the problem might be to determine the desired outcome and then to behave in a way that leads to that result. This leaves open the question of whether it is always possible to achieve the desired outcome. An alternative approach is to list the courses of action that are available and to determine the outcome of each of those behaviours. One of these outcomes is preferred because it is the one that maximises
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something of value (for example, the amount of money received). The course of action that leads to the preferred outcome is then picked from the available set.We will call the second approach “making an optimal decision”. In this book, we will develop a mathematical framework for studying the problem of making an optimal decision in a variety of circumstances.