19. Simulating Deep Oil Spills Beyond the Gulf of Mexico

As deep-sea oil exploitation increases worldwide, the probability of another Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout also increases. The DWH disaster directly impacted the coastal communities of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) with 11 deaths and the release of 172.2 million gallons of gas-saturated oil, covering over 1000 miles of coastline and contaminating an estimated 300,000 million cubic meters of GoM water. In the aftermath of the DWH blowout, the question of what a similar event would look like outside the GoM is of fundamental importance. Anticipating the extent and potential environmental impact of major spills in other locations becomes important for effective oil preparedness and response, including coordination of emergency response between neighboring countries. Avoiding deep-sea drilling in environmentally sensitive and some of the world’s most biodiverse and productive fishing areas is also of upmost importance. The west coasts of Cuba and West Africa may be two of the most environmentally sensitive areas across the North Atlantic, yet exploitation of deepwater oil reservoirs has already started or is imminent. Northwest Cuba holds abundant coral reefs characterized by uniquely high diversity and fish biomass, and the region is also home of multi-species spawning aggregations, crucial for the persistence of fish populations. In addition, this area contains Cuba’s most important lobster fishery grounds. A major oil spill occurring in NW Cuba is thus likely to have deleterious impacts on the biodiversity and seafood resources of the region. The West African coastal upwelling system is an extremely productive area, harboring one of the world’s main “hot spots” in terms of fish abundance and biomass. This important system is most likely also a crucial mechanism regulating the climate, and an oil spill in this area could thus have severe local and global impacts.