Steady-State and Dynamic Assessment of Forest Soil Acidification in Switzerland

The European steady-state Simple Mass Balance (SMB) model and the dynamic soil acidification model SAFE were used to assess the risk of future forest soil acidification in Switzerland. 2010 deposition forecasts on a 150x150 km grid resolution as well as corresponding ecosystem protection levels were obtained from RAINS model runs based on the 1999 Gothenburg Protocol obligations under the UN/ECE LRTAP Convention. Deposition values for 2010 on the national resolution were derived by scaling down present l x l km deposition values according to the deposition trends at the 150x150 km grid resolution. Meeting the Protocol obligations will reduce the percentage of Swiss forest ecosystems not protected against acidification between 1990 and 2010 from 41 to 4% according to the RAINS assessment and from 63 to 16% according to the assessment with the SMB at the lxl km resolution. The dynamic approach indicates, however, that soil conditions may not improve as much as these steady-state models suggest. By 2010, 39% of the sites considered will still have soil solution Bc/Al molar ratios below 1 at least in one soil layer. Nevertheless, deposition reductions obtained from the implementation of the new protocol will prevent the major part of Swiss forest soils from further acidification. Aiming at recovery of the more sensitive forest ecosystems would require emission reductions beyond the Protocol’s obligations.