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Erschienen in:
2021 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
Stochastic Risk Factors to Capture Tendences in Business and Economy
verfasst von : P. E. Zhukov
Erschienen in: Economic Systems in the New Era: Stable Systems in an Unstable World
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Abstract
The article is pointed to draw attention for the stochastic risk factors and how to use those to analyze tendences in business and economy. The method of stochastic risk factors (SRF) is based on separating the company’s cash flows into a basic business project and a growth project, and on applying stochastic discount factors to the company’s basic cash flow based on the current company value. The research was conducted on two samples of companies – the oil and gas sector (presumably with zero growth) and digital economy. It was concluded that prospects of oil and gas sector looks rather poor and the assumed average growth rates are close to zero. On the contrary, growth rates for IT sector may be estimated as higher than average growth rates for economy. It is very likely, that IT sector sustain all crisis events, overcome all the risks and troubles and will play dominant role in the future development.