Skip to main content

2021 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Systemic Risk Dynamics in the EU—A Conditional Capital Shortfall Approach

verfasst von : Cristina Georgiana Zeldea

Erschienen in: Business Revolution in a Digital Era

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Systemic risk measurement has been a topic of main interest throughout the last years, particularly in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis. This paper addresses systemic risk dynamics in the European Union, during the 2004–2019 interval, focusing on the banking and real estate sectors. We examine the above-mentioned dynamics via daily estimates deriving from a Conditional Capital Shortfall approach. The results we obtain represent, first and foremost, a tool for analysing the dynamics of systemic risk in the targeted financial markets. The banking sector displays specific risk patterns and ranges, that support the assumption of it being a primary source of systemic instability. Systemic risk in the real estate sector runs lower. We find that the crisis period corresponds to an increase in risk in both sectors and notice certain common patterns which suggest potential co-movement episodes.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Acharya, V., Pedersen, L., Philippon, T., Richardson, M.: Measuring systemic risk Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper (2010) Acharya, V., Pedersen, L., Philippon, T., Richardson, M.: Measuring systemic risk Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper (2010)
Zurück zum Zitat Adrian, T., Shin, H.S.: Financial intermediaries, financial stability, and monetary policy. Staff Report No. 346, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2008) Adrian, T., Shin, H.S.: Financial intermediaries, financial stability, and monetary policy. Staff Report No. 346, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2008)
Zurück zum Zitat Allen, W.A., Wood, G.: Defining and achieving financial stability. J. Financ. Stab. 2(2), 152–172 (2006)CrossRef Allen, W.A., Wood, G.: Defining and achieving financial stability. J. Financ. Stab. 2(2), 152–172 (2006)CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Allen, L., Bali, T.G., Tang, Y.: Does systemic risk in the financial sector predict future economic downturns? Rev. Financ. Stud. 25(10), 3000–3036 (2012)CrossRef Allen, L., Bali, T.G., Tang, Y.: Does systemic risk in the financial sector predict future economic downturns? Rev. Financ. Stud. 25(10), 3000–3036 (2012)CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bănulescu, G.D., Dumitrescu, E.I.: Which are the SIFIs? A component expected shortfall approach to systemic risk. J. Bank. Financ. 50, 575–588 (2015)CrossRef Bănulescu, G.D., Dumitrescu, E.I.: Which are the SIFIs? A component expected shortfall approach to systemic risk. J. Bank. Financ. 50, 575–588 (2015)CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Battaglia, F., Gallo, A.: Securitization and systemic risk: an empirical investigation on Italian banks over the financial crisis. Int. Rev. Financ. Anal. 30, 274–286 (2013)CrossRef Battaglia, F., Gallo, A.: Securitization and systemic risk: an empirical investigation on Italian banks over the financial crisis. Int. Rev. Financ. Anal. 30, 274–286 (2013)CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Ben Ameur, H., Jawadi, F., Louhichi, W., Idi Cheffou, A.: Modeling international stock price comovements with high-frequency data. Macroecon. Dyn. 1–29 (2017) Ben Ameur, H., Jawadi, F., Louhichi, W., Idi Cheffou, A.: Modeling international stock price comovements with high-frequency data. Macroecon. Dyn. 1–29 (2017)
Zurück zum Zitat Benoit, S., Colliard, J.E., Hurlin, C., Pérignon, C.: Where the risks lie: a survey on systemic risk. Rev. Financ. 21(1), 109–152 (2017)CrossRef Benoit, S., Colliard, J.E., Hurlin, C., Pérignon, C.: Where the risks lie: a survey on systemic risk. Rev. Financ. 21(1), 109–152 (2017)CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Billio, M., Getmansky, M., Lo, A.W., Pelizzon, L.: Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors. J. Financ. Econ. 104(3), 535–559 (2012)CrossRef Billio, M., Getmansky, M., Lo, A.W., Pelizzon, L.: Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors. J. Financ. Econ. 104(3), 535–559 (2012)CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Born, B., Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M.: How should central banks deal with a financial stability objective? The evolving role of communication as a policy instrument. In: Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision after the Financial Crisis, vol. 245, (Issue 68) (2011) Born, B., Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M.: How should central banks deal with a financial stability objective? The evolving role of communication as a policy instrument. In: Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision after the Financial Crisis, vol. 245, (Issue 68) (2011)
Zurück zum Zitat Brownlees, C.T., Engle, R.: Volatility, correlation and tails for systemic risk measurement. Retrieved from SSRN, 1611229 (2012) Brownlees, C.T., Engle, R.: Volatility, correlation and tails for systemic risk measurement. Retrieved from SSRN, 1611229 (2012)
Zurück zum Zitat Brownlees, C., Engle, R.F.: SRISK: a conditional capital shortfall measure of systemic risk. Rev. Financ. Stud. 30(1), 48–79 (2016)CrossRef Brownlees, C., Engle, R.F.: SRISK: a conditional capital shortfall measure of systemic risk. Rev. Financ. Stud. 30(1), 48–79 (2016)CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Chang, C.W., Li, X., Lin, E.M.H., Yu, M.T.: Systemic risk, interconnectedness, and non-core activities in Taiwan insurance industry. Int. Rev. Econ. Financ. 55, 273–284 (2018)CrossRef Chang, C.W., Li, X., Lin, E.M.H., Yu, M.T.: Systemic risk, interconnectedness, and non-core activities in Taiwan insurance industry. Int. Rev. Econ. Financ. 55, 273–284 (2018)CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Cipra, T., Heyndrich, R.: Systemic risk in financial risk regulation. Czech J. Econ. Financ. 67(1), 15–38 (2017) Cipra, T., Heyndrich, R.: Systemic risk in financial risk regulation. Czech J. Econ. Financ. 67(1), 15–38 (2017)
Zurück zum Zitat Coleman, T.F., LaPlante, A., Rubtsov, A.: Analysis of the SRISK measure and its application to the Canadian banking and insurance industries. Ann. Financ. 14(4), 547–570 (2018)CrossRef Coleman, T.F., LaPlante, A., Rubtsov, A.: Analysis of the SRISK measure and its application to the Canadian banking and insurance industries. Ann. Financ. 14(4), 547–570 (2018)CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Correa, R., Garud, K., Londono, J. M., Mislang, N.: Sentiment in Central banks' financial stability reports. International Finance Discussion Papers 1203, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2017) Correa, R., Garud, K., Londono, J. M., Mislang, N.: Sentiment in Central banks' financial stability reports. International Finance Discussion Papers 1203, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2017)
Zurück zum Zitat Engle, R.: Anticipating Correlations: A New Paradigm for Risk Management. Princeton University Press (2009) Engle, R.: Anticipating Correlations: A New Paradigm for Risk Management. Princeton University Press (2009)
Zurück zum Zitat Engle, R., Jondeau, E., Rockinger, M.: Systemic risk in Europe. Rev. Finan. 19(1), 145–190 (2014)CrossRef Engle, R., Jondeau, E., Rockinger, M.: Systemic risk in Europe. Rev. Finan. 19(1), 145–190 (2014)CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat European Central Bank: Financial Stability Review, December (2011) European Central Bank: Financial Stability Review, December (2011)
Zurück zum Zitat Gehrig, T., Iannino, M.C.: Capital regulation and systemic risk in the insurance sector. J. Financ. Econ. Policy 10(2), 237–263 (2018)CrossRef Gehrig, T., Iannino, M.C.: Capital regulation and systemic risk in the insurance sector. J. Financ. Econ. Policy 10(2), 237–263 (2018)CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Grundke, P., Tuchscherer, M.: Global systemic risk measures and their forecasting power for systemic events. Euro. J. Financ. 1–29 (2018) Grundke, P., Tuchscherer, M.: Global systemic risk measures and their forecasting power for systemic events. Euro. J. Financ. 1–29 (2018)
Zurück zum Zitat Issing, O.: Monetary and financial stability: is there a trade-off? Bank of International Settlements Working Paper (2003) Issing, O.: Monetary and financial stability: is there a trade-off? Bank of International Settlements Working Paper (2003)
Zurück zum Zitat Lin, E.M.H., Sun, E.W., Yu, M.T.: Systemic risk, financial markets, and performance of financial institutions. Ann. Oper. Res. 262(2), 579–603 (2016)CrossRef Lin, E.M.H., Sun, E.W., Yu, M.T.: Systemic risk, financial markets, and performance of financial institutions. Ann. Oper. Res. 262(2), 579–603 (2016)CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat López-Espinosa, G., Moreno, A., Rubia, A., Valderrama, L.: Short-term wholesale funding and systemic risk: a global CoVaR approach. J. Bank. Financ. 36(12), 3150–3162 (2012)CrossRef López-Espinosa, G., Moreno, A., Rubia, A., Valderrama, L.: Short-term wholesale funding and systemic risk: a global CoVaR approach. J. Bank. Financ. 36(12), 3150–3162 (2012)CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Mishkin, F.: Anatomy of financial crisis. NBER Working Paper no. 3934 (1991) Mishkin, F.: Anatomy of financial crisis. NBER Working Paper no. 3934 (1991)
Zurück zum Zitat Pagano, M.S., Sedunov, J.: A comprehensive approach to measuring the relation between systemic risk exposure and sovereign debt. J. Financ. Stab. 23, 62–78 (2016)CrossRef Pagano, M.S., Sedunov, J.: A comprehensive approach to measuring the relation between systemic risk exposure and sovereign debt. J. Financ. Stab. 23, 62–78 (2016)CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Pederzoli, C., Torricelli, C.: Systemic risk measures and macroprudential stress tests: an assessment over the 2014 EBA exercise. Ann. Financ. 13(3), 237–251 (2017)CrossRef Pederzoli, C., Torricelli, C.: Systemic risk measures and macroprudential stress tests: an assessment over the 2014 EBA exercise. Ann. Financ. 13(3), 237–251 (2017)CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Schinasi, M.G.J.: Defining financial stability. International Monetary Fund Working Paper No. 4–187 (2004) Schinasi, M.G.J.: Defining financial stability. International Monetary Fund Working Paper No. 4–187 (2004)
Zurück zum Zitat Smets, F.: Financial stability and monetary policy: how closely interlinked? Int. J. Central Banking 10(2), 263–300 (2014) Smets, F.: Financial stability and monetary policy: how closely interlinked? Int. J. Central Banking 10(2), 263–300 (2014)
Zurück zum Zitat Stein, J.C.: Monetary policy as financial stability regulation. Q. J. Econ. 127(1), 57–95 (2012)CrossRef Stein, J.C.: Monetary policy as financial stability regulation. Q. J. Econ. 127(1), 57–95 (2012)CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Stolbov, M., Shchepeleva, M.: Systemic risk in Europe: Deciphering leading measures, common patterns and real effects. Ann. Financ. 14(1), 49–91 (2017)CrossRef Stolbov, M., Shchepeleva, M.: Systemic risk in Europe: Deciphering leading measures, common patterns and real effects. Ann. Financ. 14(1), 49–91 (2017)CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Wood, G. E.: Money, prices and the real economy. Edward Elgar Publishing (1998) Wood, G. E.: Money, prices and the real economy. Edward Elgar Publishing (1998)
Zurück zum Zitat Woodford, M.: Inflation targeting and financial stability. NBER Working Paper, No. 17967 (2012) Woodford, M.: Inflation targeting and financial stability. NBER Working Paper, No. 17967 (2012)
Metadaten
Titel
Systemic Risk Dynamics in the EU—A Conditional Capital Shortfall Approach
verfasst von
Cristina Georgiana Zeldea
Copyright-Jahr
2021
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59972-0_4

Premium Partner